Predicting playing time is very critical and also very difficult — lots of ways to do it and not a ton of consensus on the best way. Using similar methods to @tonyelhabr.bsky.social’s meta metrics post, year-to-year correlation (“stability”) is very low relative to other metrics Data: fangraphs

An interesting iteration on something I also wrote about a while ago tonyelhabr.rbind.io/posts/xg-rat...

per requested, an update to my gamestate xGD plots ahead of this weekend's MLS matches

MLS playoffs are coming soon, so here's my cheat sheet to digest how every team has performed this season

@cata-bush.bsky.social is actually insane for this… this seems really easy to use, has great aesthetics, and includes just about every kind of plot you can imagine

Which Big 5 teams improved the most over the summer in the eyes of odds-makers? And which teams fell out of favor? (Ratings from PitchRank)

That's it, folks, #VizBuzz has come to an end and we've crowned @tonyelhabr.bsky.social champion 👑👑👑 The finals was FILLED with ties, which give me life, including a tie for second between @johnbedwards.io and the mighty @qntkhvn.bsky.social It's the end of VizBuzz, but it lives in our ❤️ #databs

An annual must read. Happy to see my own writing linked here.

memes in 2014 vs. 2024

Fun hypothetical: How would the EPL table look right now if the result of every 1-score match was flipped? Biggest risers: 1. Wolves: +9 pts, 17th -> 5th 2. Crystal Palace: +9 pts, 19th -> 8th Biggest fallers: 1. Brighton: -12 pts, 2nd -> 18th 2. Aston Villa: -9 pts, 8th -> 19th #rstats

Game state xGD table of truth for the MLS 2024 playoff teams

❤️ the references to public studies on finishing

the great bsky migration may be enough to get me to blog again

Finally got around to trying out Observable JS in depth. It's really nifty! I used it to make some sick ⚽ plots in this post: tonyelhabr.rbind.io/posts/ball-p... #rstats

where is my GitHub achievement badge 😈

i'm about to have a bad time, aren't i

Should we account for team quality (Elo) in xG models? While I'm against this in principle, I tried it out.✍️⚽ Featuring #rstats, tidymodels, SHAP values, and calibration curves. 🔗: tonyelhabr.rbind.io/posts/xg-tea...

ordering an americano at a starbucks in a mall in europe is the most patriotic i’ve ever been

✍️ New blog post A guide to identifying whether a team is "parking the bus 🚌" when they have a lead. I show that game state stats can be pesky to calculate, but they can lead to novel insights. ⚽ #rstats tonyelhabr.rbind.io/posts/fbref-...

✍️new blog post on using the tidymodels probably package to calibrate model predictions. #rstats tonyelhabr.rbind.io/posts/probab...

✍️New blog post on "meta-metrics" in soccer, replicating part of a 2017 JQAS article from Franks, D’Amour, Cervone and Bornn. ⚖️Does a metric reliably differentiate between players? 📈Does a metric measure a quantity that is stable over time? tonyelhabr.rbind.io/posts/soccer... #rstats

"it's giving 2015" he said as he opened a script starting with `library(plyr)`

For the latest entry in our Replication Series, @tonyelhabr.bsky.social takes a look at EightyFivePoint's seminal "Exceeding Expected Goals" to revisit the age-old question of "finishing" in soccer. www.americansocceranalysis.com/home/2023/8/...

new blog post from yours truly: replicating a soccer analysis from 5 years ago, featuring Gamma-Poisson empirical Bayes estimation 🤓🤠 #rstats tonyelhabr.rbind.io/posts/xg-rat...

real ones say "dahta"