Third-year post doc.

"are you enjoying duo mobile" does a hamburger enjoy being made of quarks. does a fish enjoy linear time. does the mountain enjoy the first taste of a cup of hot chocolate when you get back to the ski lodge. your question means nothing to me. i couldn't enjoy duo mobile even if i tried

Really important to stress that the Crown Jewels of the US higher education system were never the Ivies or elite SLACs (other countries have equivalents of these) but the well-funded, large, cheap, and excellently staffed public state university systems bringing high quality education to the masses.

A remarkable finding that the opioid epidemic damage trust in Democrat politics and resulted in increased Republican vote share.

Just let me use one more p value then I promise I will stop.

People who have more complex social identities view political identity as a less reliable source of information about others. Therefore they rely less on group-based stereotypes when judging outgroup members. www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0022103125000915

Clicked "See All" on Concur but sadly did not become omniscient.

The Vice Dean who gets FOMO from approving travel reimbursements.

Both 2FA and accepting cookies all day. I predict in 2035 there will be a third thing.

Sure QJE has a fabricated data scandal. But once again, they claim this is somehow new, when a few psychologists had been doing this for years.

LLMs seem like the human experience of reading aloud when it is going extremely well, as if, to the listener, you could look away from the book and continue reading all the same. Musicians call this "reading ahead". It is predicting the next letter, word, tone, mood from what came before.

Reading aloud improves comprehension. In this case, that means reduced confusion and differential response to risk vs mirrors. files.eric.ed.gov/fulltext/EJ8...

I’ll use this as an opportunity to promote a second independent non-replication. bsky.app/profile/geow...

Sending my accountant a long philosophical stream-of-consciousness email a few days before the tax deadline.

Live picture of Trump showing his cross-modality matching tariff results where he was asked to adjust the brightness of a light and loudness of a pure tone to generate power functions that would set the tariffs.

this guy should call his senator tbh

When I was in grad school in the 90's the rule of thumb from twin studies was that the heritability of everything was ~50%. It turns out that twin studies are highly confounded, & after unconfounding w/ new genome-based methods (Family-GWAS), the median heritability of behavioral phenotypes is ~5% 🧪

Sure it's a 1/1000 chance. But, the real question is "What’s the probability of such a bad trading day, given that the economy is actively being destroyed by someone.” Then it is more like 9/10. #ForeverBayesian

Mutiny is totally a thing pirates do. Can we blame him? www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news...

imagine explaining to someone in 2016 that Bill Kristol had united in a AOC/Bernie popular front against fascism

Dolphins greeting astronauts—a beautiful planet

social scientists should be smart enough not to see broad trends in observational data and conclude it's due to their pet theory BUT ALAS I GUESS

Now you can read a short version of our comment on the AER paper, "Decisions under Risk Are Decisions under Complexity" on Data Colada. ... or the long version: bsky.app/profile/geow... ... or a follow-up (just posted yesterday): bsky.app/profile/geow... Bonus points for reading all 3.

Twitter is so creepy and weird now.

His past drug use does not disqualify him, but his “lived experience” doesn’t speak to the experiences of those who died or otherwise didn’t make it out of that hole.

minus the free homestead

Exciting hockey! Like '80 Olympics. But, I worry this time Russia will win.

ya think?

Public comment genuinely matters. Courts will overturn rules based on an administration not responding to substantive comments.

lol

"naughty naughts"

This is a bombshell announcement. Administrative and report burden NIH grants are far greater at NIH than at foundations and foundations do not have a salary cap, while NIH does.

This paper convincingly shows that Oprea's complexity hypothesis fails to hold. Comprehension was a confound Also, the within-subject design, contaminated the results: Mirrors followed by gambles increased use of EV across tasks. Gambles followed by mirrors increased use of a PT functional...(1/2)

A new working paper with Daniel Banki, @urisohn.bsky.social and Robert Walatka, just submitted to SSRN. The paper is comment on Ryan Oprea's recent AER paper. The paper is processing, but you, my friends, get early entry. papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....

🚨 Oprea (2024 AER) argued that prospect theory choice anomalies were not due to risk, but due to complexity-driven mistakes. But this new analysis convinces me that Oprea (2024) is substantially wrong. In my opinion, the paper should be retracted.

i have been reading the hobbit to my kids and it brings me no shortage of pleasure that they are both really into it

Slovic's Psychometric paradigm does a lot here to explain why 1% does not feel tiny: Uncontrollable/catastrophic + not observed before = high risk perception

Your effects are not synergistic because your scales are ordinal.

Name a paper that was *way* ahead of its time. For me, it is this one. This man, working entirely on his own with almost no field existing yet . He understood things so deep and well.

Recency bias is something we’ve known about for many decades, but Vini Singh (@vinisingh.bsky.social) has terrific new(er) research showing how consequential it can be when it influences doctors’ decisions. Learn more in this Q&A: open.substack.com/pub/katymilk...

Let´s go back to these regional categories

How it started. How it’s going.

Yuci Chen presenting this research, on effects of drug violence in Mexico on Mexican emigration and on U.S. communities, at #ASSA2025 www.upjohn.org/research-hig...

Research Degrees of Freedom

We don't talk enough about women homesteaders. There were upwards of 5,000 in the US.

I've recently been talking a bit about how difficult it is to carefully check even well-written mathematics. I want to try to explain something about this by telling the story of some errors in the literature that (in part) led to the two papers below. 1/n