This is going to continue expanding in MLB in the coming years. And with ABS coming too, the valuation of catchers in MLB is going to change drastically. With decreased need for pitch framing/calling inevitable in the future what skills will teams begin to emphasize from the position? More Offense?

The Marlins are calling pitches from the dugout. Let's discuss what usage models are, how they serve as a guide, and why more teams in the league will adopt this strategy in the future... unless catchers have something to say about it. 👀 Full video: www.youtube.com/watch?v=EMYS...

UPDATED top 40 pitching prospects just dropped! Correct classifications on every shape, Stuff+ and shape data, MiLB expected run values (xRV), arm angle guesstimates, 25k+ words of analysis. Won't find most of that anywhere else. 🫡 Tease below, $ subs only: lancebroz.substack.com/p/mlb-top-pi...

UPDATED top 40 pitching prospects just dropped! Correct classifications on every shape, Stuff+ and shape data, MiLB expected run values (xRV), arm angle guesstimates, 25k+ words of analysis. Won't find most of that anywhere else. 🫡 Tease below, $ subs only: lancebroz.substack.com/p/mlb-top-pi...

It's the year of the pitch mix! Will the rate of repertoire expansion ever slow down? Who is adding pitches the quickest? Which team is *dominating* mix in the minors? Let's explore 2025's biggest trend. 👀 Tease below, full video: youtu.be/Bj6D-bdKHVc

I went this year to meet people I've known online for forever but had never been in the same room with. @lancebroz.bsky.social, Dan Blewitt, @harrypav.bsky.social , @michaelrosen.bsky.social, @nickwan.bsky.social. But it's a great event. Thanks, @brooksbaseball.net and crew.

Dove into a trio of pitching prospects in search of MLB's next ace... Jonah Tong, Payton Tolle & Trey Yesavage Each has incredibly distinct mechanics with near-outlier elements to their game. But who is the clear #1? 👀 Tease below, full video: www.youtube.com/watch?v=cp2p...

Who has the best bullpen in MLB? Inspired by a recent @enosarris.bsky.social piece, I dug into 4 units, searching for funky arms and considering what stats we want to value in leverage relief situations. Tease below, full video: youtu.be/rUqHnjxpU6I

just recorded today’s pod with special guest host @lancebroz.bsky.social filling in for Jake on vacation long overdue collab with one of the best in the business, really fun recap of all the action from the weekend in your feeds 🔜

NEW POD @lancebroz.bsky.social joins as special guest host! - MIL keep on winning; Woodruff, Contreras, Isaac Collins (!) star in sweep of NYM - PHI builds big NL East lead - can SEA win AL West? - NYY still down bad - Dylan Cease's evolution evokes league-wide trend - and SO much more!

Recent stuff to hit my Substack... ⚾️ Zebby Matthews debuted a sinker last night & the Braves fixed Joey Wentz? ⚾️ ($) Kevin McGonigle's batted-ball data (amazing), Sebastian Walcott's data (not amazing?) ⚾️ ($) Esteban Mejia's FCL shape data (Sasaki comp?) Links in thread! 👀

Fried's cutter development is really fascinating, we've been tracking it for a long while. This year he really made it a distinct offering, Lance does a great job breaking down how he (ahem) seams to be doing it. Many more goodies within the video, too.

Just dropped one of my favorite videos in a long time... on CUTTERS. A bunch of goodies within... Mariano Rivera's cutter shape metrics 👀, the "zero line bias", Red Sox + Brewers crushing SP development, Max Fried's seam-shift CT, & more! Tease below, full video: youtu.be/AjwQimplMpU

Trade deadline was a blast! I went through the surplus value going each way in a bunch of trades. -Why everything feels like an overpay -Difficulty reconciling reliever value on paper vs reality -Lot of good non-40-man pitching changed hands Tease below, full vid: youtu.be/XbQuppGmuqI

Serwinowski's mechanics are wacky. He's 6'5", ~7' extension, 5.8' release. 4S-SL-CH. 4S is 94 mph, 16.5" VB, 6" arm-side. 82-mph slider has 7" sweep, short sweeper. CH is mid. Average swing miss on everything vs righties, below average on strikes. Velo play for Dodgers? 🤔

My thoughts on the arms going back to Arizona alongside Locklear for Suarez are below. Both reliever outlooks. Cranton's fastball is electric. This return feels light for one of the best rental bats available ... don't think I'm the only one that believes that...

Stephen is a great get for the #Guardians. Big carry 4S, high slot, ++ zone feel. 72% strike rate, average swg strk, great underlying contact quality allowed (<.300 xwOBAcon). 93 mph, 20" VB, 9" arm-side, 6.6' ext, 6.2' release More data of his in the screenshot below!

Nett is already throwing 6 pitches: 4S, SK, CH, CT/SL, SWP, CU. Mix guy with below-avg strike/zone rates. Even splits, strong LHH mix. 4S averages 96 mph, 15" VB, 5" arm-side, 5.8' rel. Enough velo to bypass meh shape. CT/SL is best pitch. 90 mph, 5" VB, 3" glove-side (below).

Ranked the top 10 most interesting pitchers rest of season. 👀 Deadline implications, why is Quinn Priester good, examining the lower-slot version of George Kirby, and much more. Tease below, full vid: youtu.be/DudQJ_vEKu8

Did a deep dive on trade valuation and how small projection differences can swing deals. 👀 What's the package for the #Cubs to get Sandy Alcantara? Or the #Yankees to get Eugenio Suarez & Zac Gallen? Tease below, full vid: youtu.be/3gza-PODHOA

Jacob Misiorowski has 98th percentile 4S velocity & 99th percentile 4S extension. 🤯 How much does extension independently matter? Or is it inseparable from height and early-chain movement patterns? Just dropped a new video covering it! Tease below, full vid: youtu.be/rXxxkg6mjGY

This topic is catnip to me, & Lance covered it really well. Some companion pieces from me: On how Arsenal Metrics interact w/ TTO: www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article... On question of fatigue vs pitch-level familiarity & pitcher-level familiarity: www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article...

Dug back into a topic I love thinking about: pitch decay How does a pitch wane in effectiveness as it's thrown more? How do you repair that value? It applies to the at-bat of the year so far: Aaron Judge vs Garrett Crochet from June 13 Tease below, full video: youtu.be/N1i_B4foUqw

Shane Baz flipped from a slider to a cutter on June 15, threw it 38% in yesterday's outing too. He allowed 5 barrels on his slider in May, struggled mightily versus right-handed hitters. Cutter shape: 89 mph, 9" vert, ~4" glove-side More in my substack: lancebroz.substack.com/p/rays-shane...

Who are the best pitching development orgs in MLB? 🤔 New video just dropped where I rummage through non-public aggregated MiLB data to spot trends & attempt to tackle this difficult question. Tease below, full vid: youtu.be/EXCZRYFYJSA

Catch probability has a pretty big flaw that skews our public perception of the statistic. For one, balls given <50% probability are routinely underestimated in their difficulty (aka... they're wrong). But does it actually matter? Tease below, full video here: www.youtube.com/watch?v=CswV...

The #Yankees pitching lab has been cooking this year. They've made material adjustments to Max Fried, Fernando Cruz, Carlos Rodon, and the 🐐, Ryan Yarbrough. New video just dropped on their dominance in the realm of seam effects. 👀 Tease below, full vid: youtu.be/0Xn7YReqSPo

I hopped on @lancebroz.bsky.social 's YouTube channel and we covered 10 arrow-up minor league prospects: H: Cags, Zyhir Hope, Luke Dickerson, Andrew Salas P: Yesavage, Hagen Smith, Tolle, Ryan Sloan, Misiorowski, Johnny King www.youtube.com/watch?v=NKwn...

Excited to jump on Lance’s excellent YouTube channel to talk about some arrow-up minor leaguers that just missed my Top 50 prospects update!

🚨Collab video with @kileymcd.bsky.social 🚨 We dug into 10 advanced data standouts from the 2025 minor league season so far. Includes data on... Jac Caglianone 👀, Zyhir Hope, Payton Tolle, Ryan Sloan, Luke Dickerson, Trey Yesavage, & more Tease below, full vid: www.youtube.com/watch?v=NKwn...

also, you can do custom pitch comps now. just plug in whatever specs you have and get your comps

Dove into Statcast's new swing metrics! Found some deep point-of-contact mashers, vertical bat angle adjusters, and a whole bunch more. 👀 Tease below, full vid here: www.youtube.com/watch?v=lv1S...

Here's the #Yankees orientation change on Max Fried's sinker. Two-seam last year to one-seam spin this year. xSLG down 50 pts, whiffs up ~50%. Big difference is in the vertical break. Lower number = more drop... 2024: 8.5" vertical break ➡️ 2025: 4.7" vertical break

Dove into 7 pitchers who have fascinated me to start the season... for better or worse... 👀 Why is Liberatore Good? Yankees cooked on Fernando Cruz's tweaks. Sandy Alcantara, toast? Logan Webb's Cy Young chase. Jonah Tong postseason call-up?! Tease below, full vid: youtu.be/53QeXtNt2d4

Dug into the implications of the smaller MLB strike zone due to an adjustment in how umpires are judged. I think it's good for the game, but it might create a need for even more velocity and stuff ... and what's up with catcher framing?! 🤔 Tease below, full video: youtu.be/Pu5oG0rdCqw

Dove into the world of biomechanics to consider whether lower arm angles will keep pitchers healthier. Challenging topic! I learned a lot and got some great info from a bunch of MLB sources. ⚾️ Tease below! Full video: youtu.be/-_1RF1ztJTI

Just dropped my April MiLB pitching standouts. Includes non-public velo, shape & approach data. 👀 Jonah Tong, Ryan Sloan, Gage Jump, Ben Hess. Plus thoughts on Cade Horton's new sinker + Jacob Misiorowski's crazy command leap. Paid Susbtack subs only! open.substack.com/pub/lancebro...

The #Cubs are throwing a lot of four-seam fastballs. It's an odd strategy that seems ... to be working? Just dropped a new video on the team cutting their fastballs more than anybody in the minors and zagging in the majors. 👀 Tease below, full link: youtu.be/OZ7e2NIK_Zk

I'm not worried about Emmanuel Clase, but I found it interesting that he moved his primary cutter location to the outer third vs righties. #Guardians ...And the 2 righty barrels he's allowed this year have come on inside targets that he pulled back over the plate. 🤔

Brandon Young's split-changeup is wacky, kind of a one-finger pitch? #Orioles He also hammers the zone with it. His ~60% zone rate this year would've been the highest among all qualified changeups in MLB last season. Wrote about it in my Substack today: lancebroz.substack.com/p/giants-lan...

🎙️ Rates & Barrels ⚾ @lancebroz.bsky.social joined @enosarris.bsky.social and I to discuss some of the new (and improved) pitches this season that may have the biggest long-term impact and a few intriguing pitchers at Triple-A.... Audio: pod.fo/e/2c8562 YouTube: www.youtube.com/c/RatesBarrels

Absolute blast hopping on Rates & Barrels w/ @enosarris.bsky.social & @dvr.bsky.social. Chatted about some of the biggest changes I've seen in pitchers this season from Triple-A to MLB: Max Fried, Max Meyer, Dylan Cease, Cade Horton, Blade Tidwell & more! ⚾️ YouTube: www.youtube.com/watch?v=TueQ...

Awesome stuff from Mike, one of my favorite baseball writers out there right now (... not just cause he occasionally mentions me in stories 🤣)

Joe Boyle's new splinker is NASTY. He's the only pitcher in MLB throwing a splitter/sinker w/ an arm angle >40°, >92 mph, with <3" vertical break (aka, a lot of drop). More traditional split grip compared to Skenes'/Duran's splinkers. More in Substack: lancebroz.substack.com/p/rays-joe-b...

Kevin Gausman stopped throwing his sinker to righties and started jamming his 4S up-and-in (see below). #BlueJays Early results have been fantastic. Small-sample swinging strike rate up to 17%, zone rate hasn't wavered. Wrote about it in my Substack today: lancebroz.substack.com/p/blue-jays-...

Big video just dropped! 👀 I got some assistance modeling the effect of the minor league ball on pitch shapes. Details and a public way to adjust within. I also briefly consider what's up with the MLB ball this year (spoiler: I have no idea). Tease below, full video here: youtu.be/Fu828E0Vqyc

*The* Adam Ottavino hopping into my Substack comments to talk ball (literally). 👀 Great nugget on the ball's inconsistency in 2023 below. Have had multiple people speculate to me the 2025 ball is different in the last 24h. Others skeptical. Data ... doesn't support a difference? 🤷‍♂️

Fascinating to see the league embrace the depth changeup / kick-changeup. Look at the % of changeups thrown >84 mph with *less* than 2” induced vertical break (a bunch of drop)… 2025 - 25.4% (41% YoY increase‼️) 2024 - 18% 2023 - 14% 2022 - 12.8%

Over-Slot is here @lancebroz.bsky.social joins the show to analyze/evaluate college pitching for the 2025 Draft. 💎Patrick Forbes SP1? 💎What to do with Jamie Arnold 💎Kyson Witherspoon quick to MLB? 💎Tyler Bremner ceiling? 💎Liam Doyle: Starter or reliever? Pro comps for all players.

Thanks for the shoutout, Lance! A reminder that similar code, inspired by DDZ from Max Bay, is available from my submission to Nick Wan's kaggle competition on predicting Ks from arm angle data: github.com/sbrown70/exp...