Brent and WTI above $100. Strait of Hormuz largely shut down. EIA has the data and expertise to explain what might happen next. They've been quiet so far, but hopefully tomorrow's Short-Term Energy Outlook will offer some insight.

Obviously terrible BUT I keep reminding myself that what has been undone can be redone. The science doesn't change, and eventually... EVENTUALLY... we will realign U.S. policy with the science.

Yes, the economics are pretty simple: incentivize demand for gasoline and prices will go up. Look no further than EPA's own regulatory impact analysis earlier this year, which cited EIA projections: www.cbsnews.com/news/epa-rul...

Funny story about George Dantzig's formulation of the canonical diet program to test his newly developed simplex algorithm. The lesson? Embed some common sense in the model formulation. Thanks to @bistline.bsky.social for sharing.

Today we submitted our public comment on critical flaws in EPA's rationale for rescinding its authority to regulate greenhouse gas emissions. This proposed move is a big deal with profound implications for our future. Today's the last day to comment. www.cmu.edu/cit/veg/publ...

Excellent piece by @bencasselman.bsky.social on the BLS data revisions. The U.S. Energy Information Administration, another federal statistical agency, faces similar data challenges. The accuracy vs timeliness tradeoff is universal: data collected at higher frequency is inherently noisier.

And here the timely EIA data (and analysis) on oil trade volumes through the Strait of Hormuz - 20% of global oil consumption: www.eia.gov/todayinenerg...

I was happy to participate in this event and explain how the U.S. Energy Information Administration meets energy data needs in the United States. 🔌💡

Some personal news: This November, I'll be returning to Carnegie Mellon (@cmu.edu) as head of the Department of Engineering and Public Policy (EPP). I'm honored and excited to help lead EPP into its next chapter. engineering.cmu.edu/news-events/...

If you want to lower energy costs for Americans, you must first understand the US energy system. You can't do that without the robust, accurate data the EIA provides. The Trump Administration's haphazard dismantling of the EIA will hurt our ability to increase access to cheap, reliable energy.

EIA’s Annual Energy Outlook 2025 (AEO2025) was published this week: www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/ I’ve taken some time with the published data, and want to share some high-level insights from my personal perspective. 🔌💡 🧵👇

🔌💡

Meredith Fowlie discusses recent work examining the impacts of ⬆️ U.S. LNG exports. ⬆️ exports will put ⬆️ pressure on domestic prices, but models disagree on the global GHG impacts. Short-term displacement of coal tends to ⬇️ emissions, but longer-term delay in renewable adoption can ⬆️ emissions 🔌💡

Great panel on an important topic...

In the run-up to my Senate confirmation, I was told to sell my 10 shares of Apple stock — 10 shares — to avoid a conflict of interest. Why? Because I could direct my agency's IT dept to purchase Apple products. Frustrating that the most powerful can flout the rules the rest of us take so seriously.

Macro-Energy Systems is now on Bluesky! MES is an emergent field and research community that focuses on large-scale, systems-level, long-term aspects of energy systems and their implications for other systems. Follow this account for MES community updates, and visit our website for more!

Calling all Macro Energy Systems enthusiasts. I created this macro energy systems starter pack. Featuring @jessedjenkins.com @gruberte.bsky.social @jfdecarolis.bsky.social @patricia-levi.bsky.social #energySky Let me know in the comments who I missed and I'll add them. go.bsky.app/TTnoSNL

I had the honor to deliver the MITei Fall Colloquium this year. My title sums it up: “Stay humble and prepare for surprises: lessons for the energy transition” The talk features new animations showing past EIA projections versus reality. Some highlights. 🧵👇 🔌💡 www.youtube.com/watch?v=V0fL...

Project BlueSky is an EIA initiative to develop a next generation energy systems model. Today, as a first step, we released an open source BlueSky prototype on GitHub under the Apache 2.0 license 🔌💡 github.com/EIAgov/BlueSky 🧵👇

Behold, EIA developed a new Sankey diagram to represent the U.S. energy system! 🔌💡 www.eia.gov/totalenergy/... 🧵👇

This week, EIA released its Winter Fuels Outlook, which estimates household energy expenditures for the upcoming winter. tl;dr: Expenditures are expected to be about the same as last winter. Lower prices compensate for a slightly colder winter. 🔌💡 See more here: www.eia.gov/outlooks/ste...

Hurricane Milton is already affecting Florida’s energy infrastructure. Some FL gas stations are without fuel given high demand. Fuel must be delivered by truck or ship. Also, Port Tampa Bay is currently closed. 43% of FL’s petroleum products move through the port. 🔌💡 www.eia.gov/todayinenerg...

EIA's Today in Energy (10/3/24) analyzes the impact of load growth in ERCOT driven by cryptocurrency mining and data centers. We look at 3 demand cases for 2025 and estimate grid impacts 🔌💡: www.eia.gov/todayinenerg...

Hurricane Helene is affecting energy infrastructure along the U.S. Gulf Coast. Trade press reports indicate that multiple companies have evacuated staff at offshore oil platforms and paused some production in the Gulf of Mexico. More here: www.eia.gov/todayinenerg... 🔌💡

For all the long-term energy modelers out there: we just released an open source tool that allows you to plot projections from past editions of the Annual Energy Outlook against actual outcomes: github.com/EIAgov/dash-... Let me explain why this is important. 🔌💡

I know you're all going to miss the early 2000s vibe on the EIA homepage (goodbye carousel and sidebars 👋), but it was time for a refresh... www.eia.gov There's *much* more to do, but it's a start.

The U.S. share of electric and hybrid vehicle sales increased in the second quarter of 2024 (2Q24). BEVs represented 7.1% of light duty sales in 2Q24, about the same as last year. Tesla's market share dropped to 48.9% in 2Q24, first time below 50% since 4Q17. www.eia.gov/todayinenerg... 🔌💡

EIA estimates the U.S. will add nearly 63 GW of new capacity in the electric sector in 2024. The overwhelming majority -- 96% -- will be carbon-free. ☀️ Solar: 37 GW 🔋 Battery: 15 GW 🌬️ Wind: 7.1 GW 💧Nat Gas: 2.6 GW ⚛️ Nuclear: 1.1 GW www.eia.gov/todayinenerg... 🔌💡

At EIA, we just released our National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) — used to produce the Annual Energy Outlook — as an open source product, with additional EIA code to follow. 🔌💡 github.com/EIAgov

At EIA, we expect a significant increase in US LNG exports over the next couple of years. We forecast that LNG exports will increase by 2% this year, reaching an average of 12.2 Bcf/d. Next year, LNG exports grow by another 18%, reaching an average of 14.3 Bcf/d. 🔌💡 www.eia.gov/todayinenerg...

Today at EIA, we released the Wholesale Electricity Market Portal: www.eia.gov/electricity/... It gathers hourly and sub-hourly electricity production, demand, interchange, and price data from seven U.S. electricity markets. It’s a great example of how we’re making data easier to access. 🔌💡

The National Energy Modeling System (NEMS), which EIA uses to produce the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO), is undergoing a significant update in order to better model fuels, techs, and current policy in AEO2025 🔌💡 Learn more here, and join us for a public webinar on April 4: www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo...