The Atlantic low pressure conveyor belt is in full swing for the next 2 weeks. Low after low pushing in towards the UK bringing potentially 100-400mm of rainfall across western hills. Very, very wet.

It is December, right? Much of the Northern Hemisphere continues to be significantly above average. El Niño next year is almost certainly going to set new global temperature records 📈

This is a good outlook for people who pay their own heating bills. Average or mild for the foreseeable with no sign of anything particularly cold 📈 Potentially a very wet outlook.

I really hope the Met Office see some sense and scrap this new app. The design remains awful, completely lacking in data and.. worse still, this is what the warnings look like. How are you supposed to see which warning is which? Just awful.

A somewhat unfortunate drawing of the lines there..

🚨 Locally severe weather possible tomorrow. An easterly flow within the broader area of rainfall will intensify rainfall along eastern Welsh hills via orographic lift leading to a lot of water flowing into rivers downhill. Totals of >100mm possible locally.

Potentially quite a significant rain event shaping up for Friday. A waving weather front could bring locally very high totals across the hills of Wales for example with totals likely exceeding 100mm and widely 30-50mm across central England. Would expect Met Office warnings ⚠️

Absolute textbook example of anti-cyclonic wave breaking in the next few days leading to a cut off area of high pressure over Greenland.

Cold December? MJO eastwards propagation and the associated +ve AAM tendency has driven a Pac Jet extension resulting in Atlantic / Greenland blocking next week. This block will likely relax by the 26th/27th with a brief Atlantic interlude before further blocking develops into December.

❄️❄️ Cold and potentially wintry weather arrives next week so naturally I've been dusting off and tweaking the snow graphics. This is an example, but probably also does well to highlight the broader snow risks next week.

Potential for some locally high rainfall totals across Wales in the coming days as a frontal wave pushes in. Localised flooding / swollen rivers a possibility. (The WxCharts redesign is very nice)

Unpopular opinion: Using the word "uppers" to describe 85hPa temperatures doesn't make any sense.

We’ve built our own Snow Tracker. Bookmark it now and report your snowfall this winter. Learn more below 👇 blog.snowwatch.org/pr/from-flak...

The overnight ECM manages to find the cold.. ❄️ Still too far off to be chasing any cold with little support but does show that cold / snow is possible at the time of year we’re keeping an eye on.

Beautiful example of a Rex Block on the GFS today.

Very interesting u-wind profile from the EC46 last night. Early December is usually a time when the sPV is strengthening so to see not only a significant weakening but many members going into major SSW territory is very interesting. Last major SSW in early Decwas 1987. Last Dec SSW was 2001.

Blocky. A Pacific jet extension associated with a recent strong +EAMT event will generate a Rossby wave train, these will propagate east eventually allowing for anticyclonic wave breaking in the Atlantic. I.E high pressure building / turning settled.

Iceland is really living up to it's name currently. Following on from record breaking heat earlier this year, Iceland has recorded record breaking amounts of snow for the time of year, Reykjavík for example has recorded 40CM of snowfall. Iceland bucking the current very warm Arctic trend.

On the left, the first ever hurricane captured by satellite category 5 Hurricane Esther in 1961 to today with this image of category 5 Hurricane Mellisa. We have come a very, very long way in the last 64 years.

Hurricane Melissa is a record breaker. 210kt gust recorded above the surface setting a new world record, previous was 209kts by Typhoon Megi (2010) The eye is now down to -5.21 making it the driest eye in Atlantic basin history, the world record is -5.00. What a beast.

Key takeaway from my early winter thoughts this year for the UK.

I'm sorry but.. What the hell is this new Met Office website design language? It looks like something from the early 2000's but somehow.. worse? Why so large? Why so limited in terms of the data it shows? Why such huge spacing between things?

“The house is on fire. Act like it” - Greta Thunberg A heatwave at a hemispheric level will spike in the coming days with NH temperatures likely to be 1.8-2.0°C above pre-industrial levels, the warmest they've been this year.

I for one welcome our new low pressure overlord. Quite a wet night across part of Ireland with Dublin seeing >40mm of rain. This ushers in our upcoming spell of wet & potentially windy weather 🌧️ BUT! There will be some sunshine too.. ☀️

It's grey again today by the way but change is coming. Through tonight and tomorrow a band of rain will slowly move eastwards ushering in a spell of unsettled weather. Locally wet & potentially windy at times over the next 7-10 days. Autumn is here.

The entire Arctic region is significantly above average and this is having an impact on ice re-freezing. Northerlies are becoming less cold in the UK, a rapidly warming Arctic & shrinking ice is part of the reason and is consistent with climate change.

Britons opening their curtains for the next 4 months.

Growing signs that low pressure will return around the 21st/22nd bringing some much needed rainfall across the UK. The Environment Agency have declared drought status in a number of areas across England.

Planet earth is very sick and it’s our fault. We are destroying the natural world and burning it, this is causing the temperatures to rise and the climate to begin shifting into something today’s life on earth is not evolved for or adapt to quickly enough.

SUN 12 OCT 25 Dense fog patches are likely to form throughout tonight and into early Sunday morning. Visibility may be reduced below 100M locally.

Another cheeky CFS MJO update. The signal to progress the MJO east still very much evident, if a tad slower than previous forecasts. Essentially this suggests an enhanced likelihood of blocked / colder patterns down the line *IF* this progression occurs.

High pressure dominating for at least the next 5-7 days. 🌵 Very dry 🌫️ Higher likelihood of fog 🌡️ Temperatures around average Signs of a return to unsettled weather later in the month (22nd-24th ish).

Throughout the autumn & winter period I’ll aim to post a 3-part graphic that breaks down the key large scale drivers shaping our weather focusing on what they could mean for the next 2–4 weeks. Time permitting, these will be posted every Wednesday.

Winter 2025-2026 will see an easterly QBO + La Niña combo which statistically favours a major sudden stratospheric warming (and subsequent increased chance of cold weather) 92% of years sampled with this combination saw a major SSW vs 46% of years sampled with a wQBO + La Niña.

Marked dry air intrusion into Storm Amy now (blue arrow) with a developing cloud head (red). This has the potential to develop quite a powerful sting jet into the western isles of Scotland in the next few hours.

The Atlantic "cold blob" has been intensifying over the past couple of weeks due to the more changeable weather patterns. This *could* in theory lead to more of a south shifted jet stream this winter, albeit it's also possible it'll lead to a wetter, milder winter as per 2014-2016.

Saturday is shaping up to be a rather wet & breezy day as a deep low pressure system pushes into western areas. The drought is officially coming to an end.

Provisionally Summer 2025 will be the warmest on record with a mean temperature of 16.13°C. This knocks 1976 out of the top 5 hottest summers on record. Whilst we haven’t seen as many days >30°C, night time temperatures have been much warmer.

Last bank holiday before Christmas and the weather gods are smiling down on the UK. Temperatures widely into the mid-high 20's across England and Wales, it'll even be fairly warm in Scotland 😊

Drought conditions across the UK are becoming extreme. Even deeper levels within the soil are becoming extremely dry, particularly across England & Wales. There remains no significant rainfall in the forecast.

This is absolutely astonishing & historic. Finland has recorded 20 consecutive days of temperatures >30°C. The previous record was 13 days in 1972.

It’s currently hotter in Lapland than it is across most of Europe with temperatures of 29°C. 29°C. Lapland. Rumour has it, Santa has taken off his big red coat.

Autumnal storm anyone? The ECM significantly deepens this low early next week with gusts of >60-70MPH in places. Most models keep this as a weaker feature but an unsettled start to the week seems likely.

The Turkish meteorological office yesterday confirmed Turkeys new all time record of 50.5ºC set on the 25th July. Insanely hot.

BREAKING: New monthly and all time records have been set across southeastern Europe in the last couple of days. The UK has been relatively lucky to escape extreme heat thus far.

Turkey reached 50.0°C for the first time in recorded history today (preliminary) This isn’t just a heatwave, It’s the edge of human survival. In low humidity just 30 minutes of exposure risks heat stroke. Increasing humidity shortens that time. This is climate change, and it’s accelerating.

BREAKING: Sirnak Silopi in Turkey has set a new temperature record after recording 50.0ºC this afternoon. This is an extreme level of heat.

This is crazy. Storforshei, Norway has reached 30°C for 12 consecutive days. To be clear, this is right on the edge of the Arctic circle. The extent & duration of this heatwave is nothing short of astonishing.

This is astonishing. Global sea surface temperatures are once again pushing close to record breaking temperatures despite the lack of El Nino. This is largely driven by a very, very warm seas in the Pacific & around northwest Europe.

Southend.