loading . . . Could Canada join the European Union? Photo by Denley Photography on Unsplash.
I never imagined my first _Good Authority_ piece would focus on Canada’s prospects for European Union membership, an idea that would normally seem far-fetched. Yet, since Jan. 20, 2025, President Trump’s approach to international relations has made one thing clear: These are anything but normal times. What was a half-joking idea not long ago has now gained traction in both Canada and Europe, even prompting campaigns by prominent lobbyists. And in March, the European Commission said it was “honored” by Canadians’ enthusiasm for membership.
While the European Union has not made any commitments, E.U. treaties do not explicitly prevent Canada from applying. Moreover, accession talks between Canada and the E.U. would likely be relatively straightforward. Still, the real question is what Canada would gain from E.U. membership – and the answer may be “not much.”
### **Yes, Canada has a legal path to E.U. membership**
E.U. treaties state that any “European” country committed to fundamental E.U. values is eligible to apply for membership. But “European” is not necessarily a geographical concept. Turkey, the longest-standing official E.U. candidate, has just 3% of its territory in Europe. Cyprus, despite being geographically located in West Asia, joined the E.U. in 2004. And even though the European Community rejected Morocco’s candidacy in 1987, the decision did not cite geography as the reason, nor rule out the potential inclusion of geographically non-European countries.
The European Parliament Secretariat emphasizes that any country with cultural or political ties to Europe may apply for accession. In fact, the E.U. already includes nine “outermost regions” scattered across the Caribbean, the Indian Ocean, and South America. In these regions, political ties to E.U. member countries mean that E.U. trade and safeguards laws fully apply. To be sure, these are not independent states but integral parts of European countries. Nonetheless, given its deep cultural and political connections to Europe, Canada could plausibly argue its eligibility to apply for membership.
### **Meeting E.U. accession criteria would be a challenge, but possible**
Prospective members must meet three core conditions for E.U. accession: a stable democracy, a free-market economy, and the ability to comply with E.U. laws. These requirements may seem straightforward, but they have proven challenging for many past applicants. Still, Canada would clear the first two hurdles with ease. In many respects, Canada’s governance standards are more aligned with E.U. ideals than those of many current members.
The third criterion, adopting the E.U.’s vast body of laws, would prove more complex. Accession requires harmonizing national legislation with all E.U. rules passed since 1957, a process that typically takes years. Even Sweden, a role model of democracy, took four years to join after submitting its application. But that was in the early 1990s. Today, we live in a world where the E.U. opened accession negotiations with Ukraine less than four months after its application. Sweden had to wait 18 months to reach the same stage. In 2025, the E.U. could well accelerate Canada’s process.
A bigger challenge lies within the European Union itself. Enlargement requires unanimous approval from all 27 member states. This means 27 separate ratification rounds, each a potential stumbling block. Some E.U. members, particularly those labeled as “Trojan horses” – like Viktor Orbán’s Hungary – would likely exploit the process to extract concessions from Brussels. Canada would still have a compelling case. Its status as a net contributor to the E.U. budget would be attractive to leaders like Orbán, who rely heavily on E.U. money to maintain their grip on power.
### **What would Canada gain from E.U. membership?**
Canada’s path to membership is legally and politically open. Whether this is a path worth taking remains a key question.
If the expectation is increased trade benefits, Canadians should remember that the United States and Canada are each other’s largest trade partners. The E.U. is Canada’s second-largest trading partner, but the volume of transatlantic trade is nowhere near an alternative to the U.S. cross-border trade. And E.U. membership would not change this reality.
If the primary motivation is greater prosperity, membership does offer economic benefits, even for the wealthiest economies. As a net contributor to the E.U. budget, Canada would be funding development in less prosperous E.U. regions. Scholarship has shown that this funding has supported economic and political stability in these regions. Yet, the stark imbalance in budget contributions might also fuel resentment within Canada against the E.U. – and provide opportunities for far-right movements to exploit voter frustrations.
If the key objective is safeguarding democracy, Canadians might want to take note of how the E.U. is grappling with its own democratic challenges. Far-right support in Europe has just reached its highest level since the 1930s. For the first time, far-right parties in Europe collectively hold the largest share of public support across the continent.
### **This conversation is only just beginning**
Canada could conceivably join the E.U. _if_ it chose to apply. However, one big question is whether there would ever be enough domestic support to pursue membership. Would, for example, a better option be to join the European Economic Area (like Norway did in 1994)? This would grant Canada full access to the E.U.’s single market in exchange for contributing to the E.U. budget and implementing E.U. rules, but without representation in E.U. institutions. Another possibility is a looser framework based on bilateral agreements, similar to the Swiss model. Under this arrangement, Canada would preserve its sovereignty. In return, Canadians would have some access to the single E.U. market, albeit at the cost of continuous and often inefficient negotiations.
A recent poll suggests that 44% to 46% of Canadians support full membership (depending on how the survey question is framed). This is lower than support for the E.U. in current and prospective members. Still, these findings are striking, given that the issue has only recently sparked attention in Canada. Perhaps even more significant is the number of undecided voters. Nearly one in four Canadians have yet to form an opinion. But timing matters. The poll was conducted in late February, before the latest round of U.S. tariffs on Canadian imports.
If the current trend of Trump tariffs and tariff threats continues, we may witness a notable shift from “undecided” to “support” in the next Canadian polls. What once seemed like a far-fetched idea for Canada may soon become a primary political debate.
_Mert Kartal_ _is a 2025-2026 Good Authority fellow._
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### _Related_ https://goodauthority.org/news/canada-eu-membership-european-union/