Nach den letzten Umfragen ist klar, dass die #eID höchstwahrscheinlich angenommen wird. Irgendwo zwischen 50% und 60% Ja-Stimmen dürften es sein. Genau so wie es mein Prognosemarkt schon vor Wochen vorhergesagt hat. Die Live-Vorhersagen gibt es auf www.50plus1.ch

Bei Nau durfte ich heute zu einem heiklen Thema meinen Kommentar abgeben. 🇮🇱🇵🇸🪧👮 www.nau.ch/news/schweiz...

Passt zur Vorhersage auf 50plus1.ch! www.watson.ch/schweiz/abst...

Es wird knapp beim #Eigenmietwert! Basierend auf den Rohdaten meines Prognosemarktes habe ich eine Punktschätzung berechnet. Und sie zielt recht genau auf 50%. Hier gehts zu den Live-Rohdaten: www.50plus1.ch #Abst25 #CHVote #Vorhersage #Prognosemarkt

I am looking for a PhD student in Comparative Politics @powimz.bsky.social. My research focuses on political (in-)equality, representation, and responsiveness. I would be grateful if you could help to spread the word. stellenboerse.uni-mainz.de#/jgu/job/49637

Wieviele 1.Augustreden mit Lobliedern auf die Unabhängigkeit der Schweiz von der EU werden jetzt noch umgeschrieben? #Trump #Zölle #39% #Schweiz

🎆 Keine 1.-August-Rede, aber immerhin Tomaten-Mozzarella-Salat 🥗, Hazel Brugger 🎭 und die grosse Frage: Wer sind wir eigentlich, wir Schweizer? 🇨🇭 🎧 Hier mein Interview mit dem Wissenschaftspodcast „Durchblick“! (Schweizerdeutsch) open.spotify.com/episode/6HHs...

I'm hiring another postdoc (research-focused, for almost 5 years) for my @erc.europa.eu project on the educational cleavage! I'm looking for someone with strong quantitative text-analysis skills (e.g. #NLP, #LLM, etc.) to study the role of political actors in cleavage formation.

Small paid opportunity for a PhD student: I had a guest lecture fall through *next week* on a summer program I'm teaching and would love a mid-late stage PhD to talk about their work and grad study. Any topic re European city politics and/or migration. Virtual is assumed, but in-person possible.

This week’s Forecast Brew is out! We break down what prediction markets and forecasting tournaments are saying about: 🇺🇸 Elon Musk’s America Party 🚫 US sanctions against Russia 🤖 Mass production of humanoid robots 🦟 The global fight against malaria #geopolitics open.substack.com/pub/forecast...

📣 Call for Applications 📣 3-year Postdoc position in Berlin 🚀 Join our Comparative Political Behavior Group at @humboldtuni.bsky.social & the @humboldt-govlab.bsky.social Great people, great projects, great city – come work with us! 🗓️ Deadline: 31 July 2025

Today’s Forecast Brew is out! 🇮🇷🇮🇱 Is the Iran–Israel War Nearing Its End? 🇮🇷🇺🇸 US–Iran Nuclear Deal Despite Everything? 🇮🇷 Decreasing Odds for Regime Change in Iran 🇪🇸 Will Pedro Sánchez’s Government Hold? 🤖🚕 Tesla’s Robotaxi Closer to Launch? #Geopolitics #Forecasting open.substack.com/pub/forecast...

❗ The 𝘞𝘡𝘉 𝘉𝘦𝘳𝘭𝘪𝘯 (@wzb.bsky.social‬) establishes a 𝘥𝘦𝘱𝘢𝘳𝘵𝘮𝘦𝘯𝘵 for the 𝐬𝐭𝐮𝐝𝐲 𝐨𝐟 𝐝𝐞𝐦𝐨𝐜𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐲 and is looking for its future 𝐝𝐢𝐫𝐞𝐜𝐭𝐨𝐫 ❗ 📣 Let all the excellent democracy researchers out there know! ⁣ ⁣ wzb.eu/en/jobs/dire... ⁣ #Polisky @epsanet.bsky.social @ecpr.bsky.social @apsa.bsky.social

This week's Forecast Brew: 🔥 U.S. on the brink of major conflict? 🕌 Historic shake-up of Iran’s leadership? 🇺🇸 Will protests push presidential powers to the limit? 👀 Who’s leading the race for 2028? 🤖 Nuclear stability in the age of superintelligent AI? open.substack.com/pub/forecast...

📢 Two weeks left to apply! 🎓 #phd #politics #research #jobs

🚨 This week's Forecast Brew 🚨 👀 Tensions between Trump & Musk 🕊️ Ceasefire hopes in Israel-Hamas conflict 🔥 Another Israeli strike on Yemen? 🇬🇧 UK PM Keir Starmer faces internal pressure 🇺🇸 Does the Senate look redder than ever? #Geopolitics #PredictionMarkets #Forecasting shorturl.at/8VNnf

I'm recruiting 2 PhD researchers to work with me on a project studying how social groups influence vote choices! Info on the position and how to apply 👉 www.kuleuven.be/personeel/jo... Please share with interested students who would like to move to beautiful Leuven!

Jetzt ist klar, dass es keinen Vorschlag zur Halbierungsinitiative geben wird. Bei nau durfte ich meine Einschätzung zur Chance der Initiative geben. www.nau.ch/politik/bund...

Two weeks left to apply! Sorry for tagging @fgilardi.bsky.social @heikekluever.bsky.social @indubioproreto.bsky.social @bertous.bsky.social @lucasleemann.bsky.social @stefwalter.bsky.social @gessler.bsky.social @reidingerve.bsky.social @dpzollinger.bsky.social

📺🎤🇨🇭🗳️🌍 Why is there no right to vote for foreigners in most Swiss cantons? I was allowed to give my opinion on Swiss evening news. Spoiler: I think it is direct democracy + preference for citizenship rights only with naturalization. #SwissPolitics #VotingRights #Inclusion www.srf.ch/play/tv/-/vi...

New Forecast Brew is out! ☕🌍 With Guillaume Thomassin we break down the latest in global politics — from Dutch coalition tensions to Hungary, Trump, Trzaskowski & Farage — through the lens of prediction markets and prediction polls 📊🧠 #Geopolitics #PredictionMarkets open.substack.com/pub/forecast...

We are looking for a PhD student! Check out the cfa below, please repost for N and diversity 👇👇🔥🔥🔥

A few days left to submit an abstract!

🚨Publication alert🚨 What motivates citizens to support redistributive policy proposals? Find out in our new paper just accepted in the @jpube.bsky.social (joint with @aljoshahenkel.bsky.social, T.Epper, E. Fehr). Paper: tinyurl.com/9u45tcep A thread🧵

Forecast Brew | may 21st, 2025 Changing signals from the prediction markets on 🕊️ Gaza ☢️ Iran 🇰🇷 S. Korea 🏦 Fed 🤖 AI #Forecast #Geopolitics #PredictionMarkets open.substack.com/pub/forecast...

New paper out in @bjpols.bsky.social, co-authored with Emilien Paulis. Using survey data from 13 European democracies, we show that electoral winners are less supportive of referendums, especially when they are affectively polarized. 1/6 Paper: doi.org/10.1017/S0007123425000365

Today's Forecast Brew: 📉🇺🇸 Recession in the US? Tariff rollbacks dropped odds. 🕊️🇮🇱 Gaza ceasefire by July? 🚫🇩🇪 Will Germany ban AfD in 2025? 🗳️🇷🇴 Simion to win in Romania? ❓🇦🇷 Argentina: Milei win or loss? Kalshi and Polymarket at odds. #PredictionMarkets #Politics #Geopolitics tinyurl.com/3kx2jdj6

La Carlos III ha abierto 2 plazas de *profesor ayudante doctor* en ciencias políticas y 1 en sociología. Deadline: 14 de mayo Os ruego ayuda para darle la mayor difusión posible. Para resolver dudas: [email protected] www.uc3m.es/ss/Satellite...

PhD opportunity in my team! 📢 Fully funded PhD position (3+1 years) 🏫 University of Zurich / Zurich University of Applied Sciences 📅 Start of the position: September 1, 2025 ⏳ Application deadline: May 31, 2025 Job ad: www.ipz.uzh.ch/de/ueber-uns... Project Info: www.dizh.uzh.ch/en/2025/04/1...

Entertaining article on prediction markets based on the papal election. But two common mistakes: 1) PMs are not an alternative to polls. Or does public opinion matter for the papal election? 2) It's easier to influence elections with polls than PMs: Markets correct, polls don't. tinyurl.com/2h2pdj3d

This week's edition with predictions on: 🇮🇳🇵🇰 India-Pakistan Tensions 🇺🇸 Chances for U.S. Trade Deals 🇵🇱 Polish Presidential Elections 🇮🇱 Israel's Control of Gaza and International Pressure 🇪🇺 EU Long-Term Expansion Outlook #Geopolitics #Forecasting #PoliticalRisk forecastbrew.substack.com/p/forecast-b...

I would like to thank #POTUS for making my Postdoc position even more attractive... (Apply by June 15!)

People, this was supposed to be funny. Please share widely! thx! @bertous.bsky.social @stefwalter.bsky.social @fgilardi.bsky.social @indubioproreto.bsky.social @istad.bsky.social @karstendonnay.bsky.social @thmskrr.bsky.social @lucasleemann.bsky.social @gessler.bsky.social @reidingerve.bsky.social

🎓 Would you like to be a Postdoc at an American university on a research grant that won't be canceled? 📍 Join me at Franklin University Switzerland! 🧠 4-year fully-funded position in my SNF project DIVIDE 🔬 ≥80% working time on research 💰 ≈90k CHF annually 👉 Check: www.linkedin.com/jobs/view/42...

🎓 Want to do a PhD at an American university in a stable democracy? 📍 Join me at Franklin University Switzerland! 🧠 4-year fully-funded PhD position in my SNF project DIVIDE 🔬 At least 80% working time on research 💰 Salary: 47k–50k CHF annually 👉 More infos here: www.linkedin.com/jobs/view/42...

🚨 Forecast Brew | May 1st, 2025 Curated geopolitical risk insights from forecasting markets & tournaments This week we cover: 🔺 India–Pakistan tensions 📉 US–China trade war 🇫🇷 France’s snap elections 🚀 Mars landing delays #geopolitics #forecasting #risk tinyurl.com/ywv8cucr

In our latest 📈 Forecast Brew: 🔹 Who’s leading the race to succeed Pope Francis? 🔹 Will Trump roll back China tariffs? 🔹 Can Mark Carney convert momentum into win? 🔹 Is Google on the verge of a forced breakup? 🔹 Are we really on course for an off-Earth settlement? open.substack.com/pub/forecast...

🔥Exciting postdoc position in political communication @ascor.bsky.social starting 1 Sep! The postdoc will work w/ @lindabos.bsky.social, @thomasmmeyer.bsky.social & me on media-politics relations + framing effects in the aftermath of elections. Interested?😀Apply by 5 May⬇️ tinyurl.com/4wz3u5vn

Forecast Brew | apr 3rd, 2025 How did prediction markets and polls react to the tariffs? In this week's edition, together with other insights on political risks from the world of prediction #markets and #polls. Check it out! open.substack.com/pub/forecast...

This week's Forecast Brew with some long-term predictions on economic downturns 🇩🇪, EU enlargement 🇪🇺, and independent AI cyberattacks ❗, among others. #predictionmarkets #Forecast open.substack.com/pub/forecast...

Seit gestern Abend wird auch auf den Wahlgang und die Übernahme des VBS gewettet: Am wahrscheinlichsten ist eine Wahl im zweiten Wahlgang und dass der neue Bundesrat das VBS übernehmen wird. 50plus1.ch?p=2106 #brw25 #Bundesrat

Forecast Brew, the newsletter I produce with Guillaume Thomassin is just out! Every week, we curate probabilities of geopolitical risks from prediction markets and forecast tournaments. This week: US-EU relationships, AGI, Israel-Saudi relations, and more... forecastbrew.substack.com/p/forecast-b...

Wahlwetten: Der Kampf gegen den Markt bei Polymarket und Kalshi via @sz sz.de/li.3203567 Danke Max Muth für das Gespräch und dass ich etwas dazu beitragen durfte! (Meine Vorhersagen gibt es übrigens via forecastbrew.substack.com)

Special: German #Bundestagswahl Update Based on our own prediction market, we cover two questions: Has the AfD's rise come to an end? And how likely is it that neither BSW nor Die Linke will make it into the Bundestag? open.substack.com/pub/forecast...

Martin Pfister hat durchaus Chancen. Er zielt zu Recht auf die FDP. Wenn er dort eine Mehrheit erzielt und die Stimmen von GP, SP und GLP erhält, dann kann es reichen. #Bundesratswahlen www.50plus1.ch

This week's Forecast Brew: - How much damage would US tariffs on EU goods cause? And how likely are they? 🇪🇺 🚢 🏗️ - How high will Trump's spending cuts be? 🔪 💰 🏰 - Is Serbia's President Vucic expected to resign soon? 🇷🇸 🤷‍♂️ - How popular is Milei's La Libertad Avanza? 🇦🇷 📨 🐂 rb.gy/f0y7ww

Der Prognosemarkt zu den Wahlen in den #Bundesrat hat auf Darbellays Verzicht sofort reagiert: Jetzt ist Markus Ritter klarer Favorit, Martin Pfister hat Aussenseiterchancen.

In addition, we have a deep dive into our own prediction market forecast for the German Bundestag election and the subsequent government formation: forecastbrew.substack.com/p/special-ge...

This week's Forecast Brew (with Guillaume Thomassin): - Forecasts on DeepSeek's disruptive potential 🔎🤖 - Increasing probability that Netanjahu will be out in 2025🇮🇱 - Dutton's odds of becoming Australia’s next PM 🇦🇺 - The likelihood of a national abortion ban in the US 🇺🇸 forecastbrew.substack.com

Lieber spät als nie, hier die Live-Vorhersage zur #Umweltverantwortungsinitiative! Der Vorlage droht der Absturz. #abstCH 50plus1.ch?p=2097