This Kinsky to West Ham thing can’t be real, right?

The thing is, facts don't imply their own explanations. We can both agree e.g. that it's raining, but if you think it's raining because of meteorological factors and I think it's raining because you've upset the Sky Shaman, my position is not validated by the fact we agree on.

Combined in the PL this season, Xavi, Odobert, Tel, Richarlison, and Kolo Muani have scored 11 goals on 10.33 xG. If you think the problem is the players and not that they've only had 10.33 xG combined--which is less than each of Igor Thiago and JP Mateta *alone*--you're not thinking clearly.

To test this, btw, ask what you think would happen if we set a release clause for each of these players identical to the value of each front-line player in each promoted side and each relegation-zone side right now. Would they take our players instead?

If you think Xavi, Tel, Kolo Muani, and Odobert are relegation-level players you've completely lost the plot.

'Working miracles' is mind-blowing language here.

I'm a US American from the steel capital of the country and attended a large urban public school with more than 2000 others.

It’s true as a general principle and I agree (with myself) that sacking Frank doesn’t solve the fundamental problems. But it’s also true that whereas sacking Ange solved zero problems and caused some, sacking Frank solves 1 problem, which is Frank.

This is a very good side, actually. All but 5-6 teams in the league would be happy to put this 11 out against anyone. We have significantly better squad depth this season to cope with injuries.

It’s been hectic since back and I have to leave again in a couple days (wife and I together this time), but just wanted to thank you all sincerely for the kind and supportive messages. You are are better community than I deserve.

Not good

My impression so far is Bissouma is (as usual) a class above doing the unsung shit.

Watching the match replay now

Couldn’t watch today but wtf?

After returning to UK a few days ago, I caught an unexpected flight back to Boston early this morning to make sure my wife is safe because ICE is terrorizing my community in Maine. Will be less responsive to things for the time being.

It’s true I’m playing college football in Cambridge in my 40s but not even I have this kind of confidence in my longevity.

Morgan Gibbs-Yikes

It occurs to me that Spurs should be sponsored by Huy Fong Foods (California-based producer of the correct sriracha).

When a manager is in trouble there's often lots of talk of whether the players are still playing for the manager, running hard for the manager, etc. What this underestimates is how much pride elite athletes take in playing for themselves and each other. Sluggish or bad performances benefit no one.

This context is important. When I stood up for Ange last season it was because the underlying numbers were really, really good for most of the season, despite the results. People have asked why I'm less patient w/ Frank. Simple: because of this: theanalyst.com/articles/tot...

Also I think Solanke is criminally underrated. In terms of all-around play--finishing, aerial, hold-up, combining, dribbling, pressing, positioning--there are very few strikers in the Premier League I'd rather have. Probably won't happen but he should be Kane's backup for England.

Solanke’s goal: He’s not getting enough credit. Fortunate in the end but the move to drag the ball forward into the goal with his trailing leg on a pass behind him was intentional (& skillful). Risk always it will hit your planted leg when you do that, but did well to make a play on the ball there.

Straight back to London today for pickup football, possibly overestimating my energy levels.

Yes, also we're not a good counterattacking side. We're so compressed out of possession that when we win it back it's like watching a crumpled old sponge unfold. It takes forever to get people wide and forward to receive outlet passes, so we end up dawdling on the ball in transition scenarios.

Bit of a noisy table, but we’ve taken the lead 18 times this season, surrendered it 7 times, and had less possession in 2nd half in 14 of 17 games in which we’ve taken the lead.

Again this worries me bc I spotted it in the very first game v PSG, when we tanked a 2-goal lead by abandoning controlled possession. We've done this over and over again this season, sometimes surrendering leads, often allowing 2nd-half hope for opponents. It's the pragmatism fallacy in action.

Lot's of responses along the lines of 'it's understandable to sit off, players are tired, depleted squad, etc.' but frankly I think that's a fallacy and I don't know why it's conventional wisdom that controlled possession (v 10 men) is more physically taxing than defending for 35 minutes straight.

I thought we were excellent yesterday. It was an aggressive, comprehensive victory over a quality side. But again the choice to stand off in 2nd half troubles me. We conceded 0.00 xG and 0 shots in the first half going at them, gave them their only chance in 2nd half sitting off w/ 45% possession.

For a moment yesterday in the 2nd half, Vicario put his studs on the ball as the back line flanked him and Dortmund were sitting off. We were up 2-0. Yet the guy next to me was screaming obscenity at Vicario, and like…Vicario was doing the exact right thing in that scenario.

Titans of European football

Nah man I don’t like this working on set pieces 20 mins before kickoff.

Watching GKs warm up and Kinsky just took it in his instep out of the air from a corner kick and volleyed into the top corner, a precious reminder that even the keepers are better outfield players than I’ve ever been and will ever be.

Ok I’m going to the match tonight after all. Curiosity wins out over fiscal prudence and intelligent time management once again.

And when I went to purchase a last-minute ticket this morning I was put in a queue, so haven’t done so.

This would be a good deal if we didn’t throttle our football program last summer and still had use for a highly technical winger.

Can anyone recommend a lunch spot with drinks in Hackney?

If we lose Tel I'm going to be furious.

In our last 7 games we have 4 losses and 1 win (which we ‘lost’ on xG) and have had a lower xG than our opponents in 5 of the 7:

Do not tell me he dropped Tel from the UCL squad.

Of our 11 total wins in 31 games this season: 1 against a League 1 side; 2 against non-top 5 European league teams; 2 against promoted teams; 1 against relegation zone team. That leaves just 5 wins against PL staples + Villarreal.

Since I wrote this at the beginning of November, saying Spurs were riding our luck and results would probably take a turn for the worse, Spurs have played 16 more games in all comps, with a record of 4 wins, 4 draws, and 8 losses, with a total xGD of .29. profspur.substack.com/p/spurs-are-...

Frank has now had 20 games with Romero + VDV, surrendering 1.35 GA/90 and 1.18 xGA/90, compared with .8 and .86 respectively last season. Strong case to be made that, ceteris paribus, attacking is the best form of defending.

I implore you to read this. Bang on points, as usual, from The Prof. Most importantly, get behind these players. No matter what other fuckery is occurring, the players need support…especially if you want some semblance of a club that matters when the dust settles. #COYS

In my latest: Shots fired against the conventional wisdom of football technocracy, or as one of you aptly put it, Football Centrism. profspur.substack.com/p/you-cant-h...

In my latest: Shots fired against the conventional wisdom of football technocracy, or as one of you aptly put it, Football Centrism. profspur.substack.com/p/you-cant-h...

It's Monday and I just want to feel something

What’s going on?

What Insta feeds me as ‘Spurs content.’ What even is the point of this.

My biggest concern about Spurs at this point is less about results or league table than about what at least looks like the fact that the football we're playing has alienated our best players. 17th last season never lost the players and is nothing compared to the quality and value loss on the line.

This is true as a general principle and I generally advocate for it, but if you have a case where there's no evidence of what we're supposedly moving toward, and it's basically the same thing for 31 games, and that thing is bad, 'give it time' is like standing over a rock waiting for it to animate.