My neighbourhood in Minsk 🤭

#Belarus If anyone still harbors beautiful illusions about reforming Lukashenka, leave them behind. His most loyal propagandists are proudly reporting from North Korea's Central School of the Workers' Party. That's the ideological model they admire.

Just weeks after reports that the relay transmitters in Belarus had been shut down, Ukraine says Russia may still be using them to guide Shahed attacks. Belarus is still a critical piece of Russia's military infrastructure. Don't mistake a temporary pause for a strategic change.

#Belarus Lukashenka promised Uzbek workers "well-paid jobs" and social guarantees. Days after arriving, many say they were offered just $500 a month - while paying for their own food and accommodation. Their response: "Send us back to Uzbekistan. We earn more at home."

#Belarus A powerful gust in Viciebsk toppled Lenin's bust. Nature occasionally delivers symbolism no censor can control🤭

Happy Bastille Day, France! 🇫🇷 Thank you for supporting the democratic aspirations of the Belarusian people, independent journalism, civil society and resilience against Russian aggression and authoritarian influence. Bonne fête nationale!

#Belarus A Catholic priest, Yury Hrytsko, has been detained in the Zelva district and sentenced to 15 days of arrest. His alleged "crime" remains unknown. The regime's crackdown spares no one - not journalists and activists, but also priests and religious communities.

#Belarus In just three days, three Belarusian-style brands and stores - LSTR, Honar and the ethnoshop Ragna - have shut down under pressure. First they drove us into exile. Now even traditional clothing is treated as a threat. Erasing a nation's identity has become state policy.

Per capita, Lukashenka's dictatorship is even more brutal than Putin's when it comes to political prisoners and state terror. So whenever I read about repression in Russia, I think of #Belarus - and the people who have been living through an even darker reality for years.

#Belarus The regime is forcing more returning Belarusians with a history of political persecution to strip to their underwear during border inspections. They search not only their phones, but their bodies too. The regime is sinking ever deeper into paranoia.

“The greatest threat to Belarusian sovereignty is not necessarily a Russian invasion. It is the gradual expansion of Russian control without the need for formal occupation.” Belarusian dissident @hannaliubakova.bsky.social sits down with RDI’s Max Mottola in an exclusive interview:

Russia has spent 4 years striking Ukrainian power stations and oil refineries, trying to freeze cities and cripple the energy system. Now any strike on its own infrastructure is called "terrorism." Look in the mirror.

The US has reportedly warned Poland that Russia could stage an armed provocation against Poland or the Baltics in the coming months. Expect hybrid tactics and attempts to probe NATO's resolve - not necessarily a conventional invasion. The risk of miscalculation is growing.

#Belarus I seem to have a fan club in Russia. Elena Panina regularly quotes my @atlanticcouncil.bsky.social pieces and builds her propaganda narratives around them. Understandably so - if Kremlin propagandists keep responding to your work, it probably means you've hit a nerve.

#Russia's latest assault on Kyiv - nearly 500 drones, 74 missiles, at least 17 people killed and around 90 injured - is another reminder that Putin interprets hesitation as permission. #Ukraine needs more air defense, tougher sanctions and sustained military support. Now.

“The greatest threat to Belarusian sovereignty is not necessarily a Russian invasion. It is the gradual expansion of Russian control without the need for formal occupation." RDI’s Max Mottola interviews Belarusian dissident @hannaliubakova.bsky.social

#Belarus Exactly two years ago, a judge in Minsk handed down a "perfect 10" during the sham trial of 20 experts, journalists and researchers. I was sentenced in absentia to 10 years in prison and was later designated a "terrorist" and an "extremist."

#Belarus The regime says it has “pardoned” 32 people, including 28 political prisoners convicted under the regime’s notorious “extremism” laws. Among them: 20 women and 12 men. Just release them all.

#Russia is temporarily shutting several railway border crossings with Latvia, Estonia and Finland starting tomorrow. The move affects key rail checkpoints on the western border and will suspend movement of passengers, vehicles, goods and cargo through those crossings.

“What makes the situation especially cynical is that human beings are being used as instruments of political pressure.” RDI’s Max Mottola interviews Belarusian dissident @hannaliubakova.bsky.social on how Belarus weaponized migrants against its neighbors:

I don’t understand why some people describe Lukashenka as a “wise” political animal. What is wise about a dictator who lurches from Putin to Xi, then apologizes to Zelenskyy after years of insulting him when he feels pressure? His staying power comes from brute force, not political intelligence.

Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi said that one of the relay stations in #Belarus was working yesterday. “But I think they won’t switch them on,” he added.

#Belarus Hilarious! The regime has labeled more than 50 Telegram sticker packs as "extremist." Imagine how scary an emoji or a GIF must seem to a regime that fears stickers.

For more than 24 hours, Lukashenka and Putin have been locked in closed-door talks at Valdai - with no joint statement, no press conference, not even a photo. That silence says a lot. Now Lukashenka is off to Asia.

Lukashenka flew to Putin's Valdai residence. Brave timing. With all the fuel shortages in #Russia these days, let's hope (not really) there's enough left for the flight back🤭

I was listening to Ian Bremmer's podcast when I got a request from GZERO Media to comment on Zelenskyy's ultimatum to Lukashenka and what it means for #Belarus. Here are some of my thoughts on why Kyiv's pressure worked. Happy to contribute to the discussion: www.gzeromedia.com/news/analysi...

#Belarus Lukashenka is heading to Russia for another "working visit" to meet Putin. They are expected to discuss cooperation - amid Ukraine's demand to shut down relay infrastructure allegedly used for Russian drones and growing strain inside Russia's war effort.

#Belarus Journalist Kiryl Pazniak has been sentenced to 3.5 years in prison. His daughter Yanina has also been convicted - her sentence is still unknown. If you hear things have "calmed down," remember: arrests and sentences continue every day.

Cheap oil is bad news for commodity-dependent authoritarian regimes. For #Belarus, the impact is indirect but real: weaker Russian revenues mean slower growth, a weaker ruble, tighter budgets and fewer opportunities for the Belarusian economy. Let's see how the regime reacts.

Things are getting heated in #Belarus too, in a different way. After Zelenskyy's ultimatum, relay stations along the Belarus-Ukraine border were reportedly switched off. But I'm more interested in the deeper layers of Belarus' involvement in the war: www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrain...

The relay towers in #Belarus to guide drone attacks on #Ukraine are not just Ukraine's problem. If this infrastructure remains in place, it could also be used to threaten the EU. Europe should treat Russia's growing military footprint in Belarus as a direct security challenge.

Vasil Verameichyk is a former volunteer fighter for Ukraine. He was arrested in Vietnam, and later extradited to #Belarus. Now he is serving a 13-year sentence. His family says he likely suffered a heart attack in prison. This is urgent. Vasil must be released before it's too late.

Glad to see @theguardian.com reference my recent @atlanticcouncil.bsky.social analysis in its reporting on Belarus's growing role in Russia's war against Ukraine. Understanding how the Belarusian regime operates and how the Kremlin uses #Belarus is essential for developing an effective response.

#Belarus My Facebook page has now been labeled "extremist" - joining my X account and me personally. They've sentenced me to 10 years and put me on wanted and terrorist lists. A regime that fears satire, speech and social media is a regime scared of its own shadow.

A few weeks ago, Lukashenka was hinting at a strike on Kyiv and mocking Zelenskyy as a drug addict. Today he's apologizing, warning that #Belarus is militarily vulnerable and pleading for compromise. Funny how quickly the rhetoric changes when you realize #Ukraine can hit back.

#Belarus According to Lukashenka, #Russia didn't fail to take Kyiv because of Ukrainian resistance, catastrophic military planning or Putin's delusions. No, apparently the Vatican and "the Jewish lobby" tricked the Kremlin into withdrawing. Five years into Putin's "three-day war."

A 60-year-old insurance agent from Homel, Sviatlana Bazhankova, has been convicted in #Belarus for sending information to the Belarusian Hajun project. She baked cakes and worked for years helping people insure their lives. Today, the regime calls her an "extremist."

#Ukraine "How was your night?" I asked someone I know in Kyiv. "Horrible," they replied. "I've gotten used to the thought that I could die every night." And then I hear how little can be done, how the West is afraid of provoking Russia, how there are interests to consider.

One myth that deserves to die is that Lukashenka is somehow "resisting" Putin, or that the Kremlin is desperately looking to replace him. Last year alone, #Belarus received another $1.2 billion loan from #Russia - on top of years of Russian credits, debt restructuring & subsidies.

A Russian woman asked Belarusians on Threads: "Is it true that people think, 'Why are all these Russians moving here?'" The post exploded, attracting 1,400+ comments. They did not disappoint 🧵 (couldn't resist adding a photo of my beloved Minsk)

The release of all political prisoners in #Belarus is essential. But it is not enough. Here is why:

Whenever I hear someone say "the EU is weak," I'm reminded how closely that echoes pro-Lukashenka propaganda: portraying the EU as divided, with the goal of weakening it from within. Paradoxically, it's mocked precisely because it still holds - and because unity is strength.

#Belarus A Minsk court sentenced a family of three - a nursery teacher, her husband and their daughter - to a total of 37 years in prison for treason and weapons smuggling. Their daughter says her parents were effectively taken hostage because she is in #Ukraine.

#Belarus A Minsk court sentenced a family of three - a nursery teacher, her husband and their daughter - to a total of 37 years in prison for treason and weapons smuggling. Their daughter says her parents were effectively taken hostage because she is in #Ukraine.

#Belarus We often hear that Lukashenka has "no choice" but to follow Moscow's lead. Yet Armenia shows that even under extraordinary pressure from Russia, leaders still make decisions. #Armenia made its choice. I hope it continues to develop closer ties with Europe.

#Belarus For nearly a year, 62-year-old Ukrainian citizen Natalia Batashava has been held in Minsk's Akrestsina detention center without charges, without access to a lawyer and without contact with her family. She has reportedly suffered serious health problems in custody.

Between late January and June, life gets unusually busy with work travel, some trips more intense than others. Whenever I return home, I take a few quiet hours to settle my buzzing mind. That uninterrupted time helps me regain focus. It's a small luxury, and one I rarely get.

#Belarus Someone I know who was released after years in prison has been diagnosed with cancer. After going into exile, he got checked and received the diagnosis. He spent years, working in dangerous, toxic conditions. Those years probably contributed to his illness. How unfair.

The regime is persecuting people linked to the European Humanities University, in exile in Lithuania. More than 30 searches have been carried out across #Belarus. Parents are being told to force their children to leave EHU and return home - or face criminal prosecution.

I appreciate how subtle the universe is with its messages.