With my comments for The Guardian: "One concern was the potential for a “Libya scenario”, recalling how the North African country slipped into civil war in the years after the 2011 killing of its leader, Muammar Gaddafi." www.theguardian.com/world/2025/n...

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🇻🇪 Venezuela is in the global spotlight again, with military escalations, sanctions changes, an opaque oil sector, and complex political and geopolitical considerations at play. What's really going on? What are the scenarios for the future? Reach out at orinocoresearch.com/contact

Here, CBC explains that the US Navy deployment is really not about drug trafficking. And that instead, it might be about: - Regime change to control Venezuela's resources. - To combat China's influence (but backfiring). - Consolidating Trump's power. youtu.be/IIpgOGWc7Ug

With my comments for @oglobo.globo.com on how the Trump administration sees Venezuela, what a military operation could entail, and how Maduro is reacting. oglobo.globo.com/mundo/notici...

Shared my thoughts with the Inter-American Dialogue on what the Cartel de los Soles is, and what the Trump administration is trying to achieve in Venezuela. Just the first paragraph in the screenshot. You can read the full piece by subscribing to them: thedialogue.org/latin-americ...

Should we expect war or negotiations between the United States and Venezuela? What will it mean for energy markets? Read my latest for OilPrice here 👇 oilprice.com/Energy/Energ...

Behind Venezuela's phantom cartel, Trump's endgame remains unclear My latest comment for BNE Intellinews here 👇 www.intellinews.com/comment-behi...

With my comments for O Globo: "Sabemos que algumas pessoas em Washington imaginam uma negociação para uma eleição antecipada, ou um acordo para que Maduro possa deixar o poder. Facções da oposição moderada buscam essa saída. MCM quer que tirem Maduro já do poder." oglobo.globo.com/mundo/notici...

We were able to show that the Cartel de los Soles is a political narrative used to justify military intervention. In this piece, we analyse the consequences as the U.S. is undermining its own strategic, energy, and migration interests in Latin America. guacamayave.com/en/the-myth-...

Another solid investigative article by @ferrerbreda.bsky.social regarding claims of a "Cartel de los Soles" directed by Nicolás Maduro guacamayave.com/en/the-carte...

We aren't done. We just published a second investigation, where we show how the "Cartel de los Soles" political narrative was created with one goal: to push for regime change. Read the full investigation here 👇 guacamayave.com/en/the-carte...

We just did an investigative report on what the Cartel of the Suns really is: a political narrative. In Venezuela, there is drug trafficking and widespread corruption, but there is no evidence to back up the State and Justice Department's allegations. guacamayave.com/en/the-carte...

This is the best deep-dive regarding the mythical "Cartel de los Soles" published by a Venezuelan investigative journlaist. guacamayave.com/en/the-carte...

Sometimes we forget that sanctions are, to many effects, an act of war. Blockades aren't new, just the way we do them. Now, Francisco Rodríguez, Silvio Rendón, and Mark Weisbrot are arguing they cause as many deaths as conventional war. cepr.net/publications...

The point is that Chinese companies don't have to invest billions in Venezuela. They already control its export markets for oil and most minerals, thanks to U.S. sanctions. You don't buy something that you already own. My latest: oilprice.com/Energy/Energ...

Venezuela is not taking Chevron’s oil fields and giving them to Chinese firms. But here is how the country is becoming fully dependent on Beijing. First of all, China has become a monopsony for oil and for mining (meaning it’s virtually the only buyer). oilprice.com/Energy/Energ...

So far we have: - Delcy Rodríguez meeting Chinese VP and CNPC execs. - Maduro and Xi meeting in Moscow. - Now strengthening party-level relations, CCP-PSUV. - China is by far Venezuela's top destination for oil and metals exports. guacamayave.com/en/chinese-c...

En VPITV esta mañana, sobre el efecto económico de la salida de Chevron, y lo que dijo ayer Delcy Rodríguez de que todos los campos petroleros siguen en plena producción. youtu.be/aAMQoN0gsgk?...

Con mis comentarios sobre los “contratos de participación productiva” y como nuevas empresas chinas estarían entrando en la producción de crudo venezolano. bitacoraeconomica.com/asi-enfrenta...

El jueves estuve en un seminario web de FIU Jack D Gordon Institute for Public Policy, con Francisco Monaldi, David Goldwyn y Brian Fonseca. Este artículo resume lo que dijimos en español: hispanopost.com/revocatoria-... Aquí la grabación del evento, en inglés: www.youtube.com/watch?v=gK3D...

Just realized that Brazilian media picked up my best quote (from the FIU webinar) and just threw it in there with no context: www.opovo.com.br/noticias/mun...

"Three House Republicans from southern Florida nearly derailed passage of President Donald Trump’s massive tax and spending package this week in protest of an apparent presidential reversal of sanctions on Venezuela," from @washingtonpost.com. www.washingtonpost.com/national-sec...

Yesterday, I spoke at the FIU Gordon Institute webinar with Francisco Monaldi, David Goldwyn and Brian Fonseca. "Halting Oil Operations, Implications for Venezuela and the United States" You can watch it here: www.youtube.com/watch?v=gK3D...

Un amigo acaba de experimentar el paseo millonario, así como tuve la oportunidad yo mismo en enero. Algún día tendremos que solucionar esto de que el modus operandi de una unidad de la Policía Nacional Bolivariana es sembrar a jóvenes y extorsionarlos por miles de dólares.

🦜 Entrevistamos a Eric Ondarroa, candidato por la gobernación de Miranda del Lápiz, durante un recorrido por Petare. Su mensaje principal es la educación, mientras los vecinos denuncian que sus hijos apenas pueden ver clases. Lee la entrevista aquí 👇 guacamayave.com/eric-ondarro...

My comments at The Floridian: "Every year that passes by there are more sanctioned countries, and the world is more fragmented economically. So the sector outside the reach of the U.S. and the EU just keeps growing" floridianpress.com/2025/05/west...

This means about 20%, given that millions of Venezuelans have left without that being reflected in the electoral register. Opposition incumbents won't have it easy in Zulia or Barinas, while an opposition candidate might score a victory in Miranda, despite fragmentation.

#Boscan 🦜 The Boscan crude blend, produced by a joint venture of Chevron and PDVSA, is now being exported to China (via Malaysia), according to Reuters. This would be to the cancellation of Chevron's OFAC license to work in Venezuela. guacamayave.com/en/reuters-c...

#SCOTUS 🦜 The U.S. Supreme Court ruled that the Trump administration violated constitutional rights by attempting to quickly deport Venezuelan migrants using the 1798 Alien Enemies Act. guacamayave.com/en/u-s-supre...

Con mis comentarios para Hispanopost. -- Mientras Maduro busca el apoyo de China y Rusia, Trump insiste en sacar a las empresas occidentales de Venezuela: “Un error estratégico” hispanopost.com/mientras-mad...

So what was this about five opposition activists running away from the Argentine embassy in Caracas? Pretty complete article by my colleague Sleither Fernández on what we know so far.

Nicolás Maduro is now meeting with Vladimir Putin at the Kremlin. He'll be in Moscow for the Victory Day parade. Official sources say there is an agenda for oil & gas, military, and space cooperation. (And this is soon after Delcy Rodríguez visited Beijing and Shanghai)

Again from US intelligence about Tren de Aragua: “While Venezuela’s permissive environment enables TDA to operate, the Maduro regime probably does not have a policy of cooperating with TDA and is not directing TDA movement to and operations in the US." www.nytimes.com/2025/05/05/u...

Esta semana en Guacamaya montamos un perfil de los principales candidatos a la Asamblea Nacional en Caracas: Nicolás Maduro hijo, Jorge Barragán y Chúo Torrealba. Y también hablamos un poco del contexto, ya que no es una elección normal ni mucho menos.

🦜 This week, we present the main National Assembly candidates for Caracas, for this highly atypical election on May 25: - Nicolás Maduro Guerra (yes, Maduro's son) - Jorge Barragán (Alianza del Lápiz) - Jesús Torrealba (UNT and UNICA) guacamayave.com/en/caracas-c...

Chevron’s Mike Wirth: “We’re the only American country that remains on the ground. If we were to leave, the oil production continues and American companies are replaced […] historically that’s been Chinese and Russian companies.” www.foxnews.com/video/637232...

De nuevo en Canela News con María Alejandra Requena. Dando perspectivas sobre la política de Trump, la "licencia Chevron" y la reciente visita de Delcy Rodríguez a China. www.youtube.com/watch?v=OvX4...

Right, so Venezuelais going back into a recession. Despite growth in the oil sector, other problems like the inflation and the exchange rate gap are ruining the non-oil economy.

Delcy Rodríguez Meets with China's Vice President, Han Zheng, to Strengthen the "All-Weather and All-Time Strategic Partnership." This visit aims to review more than 600 existing bilateral agreements between China and Venezuela. guacamayave.com/en/venezuela...

#BCV 🦜 This month, Maduro restructured the board of directors of the Central Bank of Venezuela. However, the reasons have not been made public, amid the devaluation of the bolivar and a controversy over new uncertified gold reserves. guacamayave.com/en/maduro-ap...

#China 🦜 Vice President Delcy Rodríguez meets with Chinese Ambassador Lan Hu to strengthen ties, as the United States increases pressure on Venezuela. Find out what's going on here 👇 guacamayave.com/en/china-and...

I still don't know how this is supposed to help Venezuelans: "Her team has been lobbying the Trump administration to apply maximum pressure strategies. That includes advocating for the US to designate Maduro as the head of Tren de Aragua." www.bloomberg.com/news/feature...

Really recommend this interview with Caleb McCarry: "This is a conflict that has lasted for 25 years. Neither side has been able to eliminate the other, and the situation has worsened by both inviting foreign powers into the conflict." iqlatino.org/caleb-mccarr...

🦜 We interviewed Luis Vicente León about Venezuela's relationship with the United States, sanctions, the opposition's future, and what Venezuelans are thinking according to his pollster, Datanálisis. Read the full interview here 👇 guacamayave.com/en/interview...

Looks like Venezuela said to Chevron: if you can’t pay, you can’t take more oil. What hasn’t stopped is the flow of crude to China, and India has restarted imports. www.reuters.com/business/ene...

#EXCLUSIVE 🦜 We interviewed Juan González, Biden's advisor for Latin America, who was in charge of negotiating with Nicolás Maduro's government. He explains what happened to US policy toward Venezuela in recent years. Read the interview here 👇 guacamayave.com/en/exclusive...

#EXCLUSIVA 🦜 Entrevistamos a Juan González, asesor de Biden para América Latina, quien se encargó de negociar con el gobierno de Nicolás Maduro. Nos explica qué pasó con la política de EEUU con Venezuela en los últimos años. Lee la entrevista aquí 👇 guacamayave.com/entrevista-e...

I just interviewed Juan González for Guacamaya. He explains what happened with negotiations with the Maduro government, the Barbados Agreement, the Chevron license, and why maximum pressure failed. guacamayave.com/en/exclusive...