Election Timing: Still 2027 At The Earliest. And @escrimshaw.bsky.social is right on the nose. open.substack.com/pub/scrimsha...

Yep, Robertson needs to find his spine and tell the Toronto city council to honour the deal or no money. @escrimshaw.bsky.social explains the details. Memo To Gregor Robertson: Toronto Can’t Be Allowed To Get Away With This open.substack.com/pub/scrimsha...

Been on the road socatching up on @escrimshaw.bsky.social today. The Alberta pundit take isn't this dire. But I think the Ellerslie result was not good. Sure, NDP held and I don't think they lose #yeg, but they won't capture Calgary if something doesn't change. open.substack.com/pub/scrimsha...

@escrimshaw.bsky.social is right. Bill C - 5 is going to end up in endless, and long, legal battles, which will defeat the purpose. The need for speed shouldn't blind people to the necessity of avoiding the same thing issues that caused the problem in the first place.

@escrimshaw on how there's a better way to do this than C-5. Bill C-5: Well Intentioned Disaster open.substack.com/pub/scrimsha...

@escrimshaw.bsky.social has the right of it here. There has to be room for criticism. Leaders shouldn't insulate themselves. The civil service needs to be proactive and responsive. Carney’s (Other) Needed Cultural Revolution open.substack.com/pub/scrimsha...

I want to be more optimistic but I agree with @escrimshaw.bsky.social that not much as changed. ABNDP is still crutching on "UCP bad", which everyone knows and few care about. We need a vision for the future. Nenshi’s Dangerously Nothing NDP Leadership open.substack.com/pub/scrimsha...

As @escrimshaw.bsky.social points out, we need a real plan and a serious discussion. Personally though, if it runs along the lines of anything other than "Canada is doing this for Canada", I won't be pleased. Canada’s Foreign Policy Crossroads open.substack.com/pub/scrimsha...

And if you want to read about how stupid of an idea it is, I suggest this column from @escrimshaw.bsky.social scrimshawunscripted.substack.com/p/citizenshi...

I don't disagree with @escrimshaw.bsky.social on this but I don't trust the UCP. Would we be allowed by Alberta to keep citizenship is the question. They lie to us all the fucking time. So, 🤷‍♀️. Citizenship, And How To Fight Separatism open.substack.com/pub/scrimsha...

The CPC learned nothing from their loss. Poilievre learned even less, if that's even possible, and @escrimshaw.bsky.social is right. This is very good news for the Liberals. Better than we cld've hoped for. Conservatives Are Gaslighting Themselves open.substack.com/pub/scrimsha...

All of this plus @escrimshaw.bsky.social explains what "tabling a budget" means in a way that the media doesn't bother to. open.substack.com/pub/scrimsha...

Party status is earned. They fucked this up themselves. This is little different from Poilievre thinking he should get a gimme re-do for a seat, imo, but @escrimshaw.bsky.social can explain it better. open.substack.com/pub/scrimsha...

I hate Scott Moe. He's worse than useless and a terrible person to boot, but it does look like Carney is about to enlist Moe's terminal self-interest to fuck over Smith and that will be a goddamn pleasure to watch. @escrimshaw.bsky.social explains it all. open.substack.com/pub/scrimsha...

Yep. Agree with @escrimshaw.bsky.social here. And as a side note, I was just a lowly campaign manager in a not even possible to win AB riding this recent election, but I noted a marked difference in the party. Far more accessible and it really helped. open.substack.com/pub/scrimsha...

Rational Albertans, and there are a few of us, know exactly what Smith's catering to batshit crazy is going to cost us. @escrimshaw.bsky.social is more generous than I am here but I hate Smith's treasonous ass, so there's that. open.substack.com/pub/scrimsha...

@escrimshaw.bsky.social with a fair assessment. Trudeau has a small handful of good social programs and the fact that it was him and not Andrew Scheer when covid hit going for his legacy, but that's it. open.substack.com/pub/scrimsha...

@escrimshaw.bsky.social is one the best Canadian political analysts we have. This recap is just more proof. open.substack.com/pub/scrimsha...

A big thank you to Blanchet for this own goal. @escrimshaw.bsky.social explains it well. open.substack.com/pub/scrimsha...

The tldr is the Liberals are still looking at a majority, but read @escrimshaw.bsky.social anyway because he knows his shit about pollsters, and some of you could use a practical lesson in why polls aren't partisan voodoo. open.substack.com/pub/scrimsha...

"Yes, if you want to pick out individual crosstabs you can piece together a narrative of momentum. You can also piece together a 225 seat Liberal projection if you engage in the same hackery." @escrimshaw.bsky.social open.substack.com/pub/scrimsha...

I really admire how @escrimshaw.bsky.social manages to come up with ever more informative ways to explain how really, terribly, no good at all the CPC is doing in this election. open.substack.com/pub/scrimsha...

Can we think of the pollsters, please? Seriously, we need @escrimshaw.bsky.social to maintain some equilibrium for the next two weeks. And also, even Mainstreet is still predicting a Lib majority, so Poilievre is still blowing this. open.substack.com/pub/scrimsha...

I don't know who Darrell Bricker is but RIP because @escrimshaw.bsky.social just dug a hole and buried him under the receipts. Also, Poilievre is still losing. open.substack.com/pub/scrimsha...

@escrimshaw.bsky.social explains, again, why the CPC isn't going to form government because, basically, math. Really bad, unchanged from a week ago, math. open.substack.com/pub/scrimsha...

All of this. @escrimshaw.bsky.social open.substack.com/pub/scrimsha...

Things are still very bad for Poilievre. Maybe he should talk less about the sizes of his crowd rallies? But who are we kidding? That won't happen. @escrimshaw.bsky.social breaks down the new numbers. open.substack.com/pub/scrimsha...

The NDP are also doing very badly. Plus poll weighting splainer from @escrimshaw.bsky.social open.substack.com/pub/scrimsha...

Conservatives are still doing badly - Part 3 - from @escrimshaw.bsky.social open.substack.com/pub/scrimsha...

Worth a listen just to hear @escrimshaw.bsky.social tell Preston Manning to go fuck himself. open.substack.com/pub/scrimsha...

“[The Liberals] can win, they are likely to win, and I think unless something fundamentally changes between now and April 28, they will win” — @davidcoletto.bsky.social joins the Scrimshaw Show to talk polls, election chances, why the NDP are so screwed, what Poilievre can do, and more!

Day 9 #ScrimshawScoreboard: All Those Headlines Just Bore Me Now LPC: 200 (+40) CPC: 118 (-1) BQ: 18 (-14) NDP: 6 (-19) Greens: 1 (-1) Leaders Losing Seats: Elizabeth May, Jagmeet Singh Regionals:

Short answer is "no" but @escrimshaw.bsky.social has a longer "calm the fuck down" version that's a good explainer. open.substack.com/pub/scrimsha...

I know this is the weeds for most voters but poli nerds should read this because @escrimshaw.bsky.social is good at breaking the reality down to the understandable. open.substack.com/pub/scrimsha...

“This Conservative campaign is as tone deaf as it is fucking pathetic, and you don’t have to take my word for it or any fucking Liberals’ - Kory Teneycke told everyone why Poilievre’s losing. Thank fuck we don’t have to run against Kory again till 2029.” open.substack.com/pub/scrimsha...

It's very bad for the CPC and @escrimshaw.bsky.social explains just how very bad it is. open.substack.com/pub/scrimsha...

Day 5 #ScrimshawScoreboard: Ahead By (Nearly) A Century LPC: 196 (+36) CPC: 122 (+3) BQ: 19 (-13) NDP: 5 (-20) Greens: 1 (-1) Leaders Losing Seats: Jagmeet Singh, Elizabeth May Regionals:

“This Conservative campaign is as tone deaf as it is fucking pathetic, and you don’t have to take my word for it or any fucking Liberals’ - Kory Teneycke told everyone why Poilievre’s losing. Thank fuck we don’t have to run against Kory again till 2029.” open.substack.com/pub/scrimsha...

Day 4 #ScrimshawScoreboard: Are You Bored Of (Carney) Winning Yet? LPC: 192 (+32) CPC: 125 (+6) BQ: 19 (-13) NDP: 6 (-19) Greens: 1 (-) Leaders Losing Seats: Jagmeet Singh, Elizabeth May Regionals:

“Poilievre’s spending spree is a sugar high that cares more about getting to the end of the day than it cares about coherence or totality. It’s Milibandian in its stupidity, because just like Ed in 2015, all the parts might poll well, but together it doesn’t add up” open.substack.com/pub/scrimsha...

Campaign Day 2 #ScrimshawScoreboard: Carney’s Ever Increasing Lead LPC: 189 (+29) CPC: 127 (+8) BQ: 20 (-12) NDP: 6 (-19) Greens: 1 (-1) Leaders Losing Seats: Jagmeet Singh, Elizabeth May Regionals:

“I don’t know what Blanchet would do in this spot, but I do know that the blithe assumptions that the Bloc can be counted on as a reliable anti-CPC party are wrong. It is not a guarantee that so long as the Conservatives fail to reach 172, they can’t govern.” open.substack.com/pub/scrimsha...

“I don’t think this will be easy. I don’t think the Liberals will spend this entire campaign in a comfortable lead. I think this will be tough. But I feel in my soul at the end of it all Mark Carney will win. To quote Bourdain, I have come home” open.substack.com/pub/scrimsha...

With the campaign here, I’ll do my best to post my columns and model updates here Shitposts and fights will stay over there but I’ll do my best to remember to cross post

Election Launch Day #ScrimshawScoreboard: Carney Opens Campaign In Majority Territory LPC: 185 (+25) CPC: 126 (+7) BQ: 22 (-10) NDP: 8 (-17) Greens: 2 (-) Leaders Losing Seats: Jagmeet Singh (3rd Place, Burnaby Central) Regionals:

Canadians,and I especially hope those in Alberta, will read and seriously think through this post from Mr. Scrimshaw. I believe he has hit the nail on the head with this one. Is Danielle Smith Trying To Elect Mark Carney? open.substack.com/pub/scrimsha...

I’m sick and tired of our petulant Premier. This column is an accurate analysis of Alberta’s and Canada’s Danielle Smith problem.

With the election almost on us, this is for the "NDP is an option" crowd. Here's @escrimshaw.bsky.social with a reality check. open.substack.com/pub/scrimsha...

"The Conservatives don’t have an answer to Carney that works." @escrimshaw.bsky.social on why he believes Carney and Liberals are now the probable favourite to win the next election. open.substack.com/pub/scrimsha...

The most certain thing is that the election is going to be called soon. @escrimshaw.bsky.social breaks down the latest polls. open.substack.com/pub/scrimsha...