Four years ago this week China’s government released me from 1,019 days of wrongful detention as a political hostage. If not for heroic advocacy and diplomacy, I might still be in a cell there, with the crisis unresolved. I'm eternally grateful for my liberty. 🧵

Is it still safe to visit China? Few are better placed to answer that question than Canadian Michael Kovrig (@kovrig.bsky.social), one of the ‘two Michaels’ who were detained for nearly three years in China.

Is it safe to visit China? The risks for foreigners keep growing. In a new assessment for @thewirechina.bsky.social, I give an overview of recent incidents, analyze risk factors and advise how to prepare if you still want to travel. How do you assess your own risks? Link in the comments.

China executed 4 Canadians this year. Why? To intimidate citizens and send a message to foreigners: “obey or else.” My latest article explores how the CCP’s callousness threatens global norms that protect all of us, undermining its own propaganda. Link in comments 🧵1/7 #ChinaCanada #DeathPenalty

China just sentenced a Japanese executive to 3.5 years in prison on espionage charges. No evidence or details provided. Hiroshi Nishiyama had been in China for two decades and worked for Astellas Pharma and with the Japanese Chamber of Commerce in China. 1/5 #ArbitraryDetention #ChinaJapan

Chinese analysts and diplomats are saying that Canada, under pressure from US tariffs, should tilt toward China. The implicit deal: kowtow to the CCP in return for economic benefits, sacrifice Canadian manufacturing for agricultural exports. It’s a devil’s bargain for Canada. 🧵/1

Shared some thoughts with POLITICO about the upcoming #Huawei trial and #Canada's new and growing geopolitical challenges. Updated strategies for #China and the #IndoPacific should be developed as part of comprehensive foreign policy vision.

Now that the 2025 #G7 summit is over, here’s the strategic narrative I shared beforehand at the #B7 summit—where economic security rightly took center stage. A few of my remarks from the B7 summit are in this video. Full 10-min media Q&A via CPAC: youtu.be/YQI_PslO1XY?.... A short recap 🧵

Followed, threatened and smeared — attacks by China against its critics in Canada are on the rise: CBC/ICIJ investigations reveal increasing transnational repression against Canadians and around the world lnkd.in/gi6kDjNG

Why US trading partners face increasing pressure to align their tariffs on China with American foreign economic policy:

For the centre of a liberal international order to hold, there need to be stronger, deeper ties between nations that still believe in it. EU + CPTPP progress is crucial.

Pro tip: China’s not hiding economic data because the numbers are too good. “Keep moving, nothing to see here…” The CCP runs on secrecy like BYD’s cars run on batteries.

Every time a Chinese Party-state voice complains "the United States started the trade war," please quote back to them earlier statements about the "Made in China 2025" strategy and particularly what General Secretary Xi Jinping said when announcing China would purse a "Dual Circulation" concept:

If you're in Ottawa, I'll be talking about my latest research for the International CrisisGroup on China-West strategic rivalry and Indo-Pacific geopolitics with Jonathan Berkshire Miller on May 14. Thanks to the Canadian International Council for hosting. Join us if you can!

"Inside China's Machinery of Repression," a new investigative report, describes the vast scale of the Chinese government’s global campaign to coerce and intimidate people in China's diaspora. #CCP #repression #interference

My sympathies to #Canadian farmers whacked by #China's 100% tariffs on #canola oil, canola meal and peas in retaliation for #Canada's duties on Chinese-made electric vehicles, steel and aluminum. www.ctvnews.ca/regina/artic...

Open societies need to do more to safeguard themselves against the #CCP's transnational repression, elite capture and foreign interference and influence, I told columnist Douglas Todd on a recent visit to the West Coast

Canadian security officials say they have spotted a foreign repression operation targeting a federal Conservative candidate opposed to Chinese government policies, CBC reports.

Treasury Secretary #ScottBessent laid out a key objective of #US #China policy yesterday:

This 👇🏻

In other words, this is what #China does NOT want to see:

#China has been detaining #Canadian businessman #LiYonghui for five years without bringing him to trial or providing any evidence of wrongdoing. Now his family is finally speaking out.

I had the honour last week to talk about #China, #geopolitics, survival and resilience with YPO in #Vancouver, with the great Frank Giustra moderating. Grateful for the opportunity to engage with such a switched-on group of leaders. www.instagram.com/p/DICqxYVBUe...

Last week hashtag #China executed four hashtag #Canadian citizens and halted billions of dollars in imports of Canadian agricultural products. This week, China's ambassador to Canada said he wants to move the relationship forward. Confused? 🤔

A refreshingly wise editorial from Spain's El Mundo on the risks of increasing dependence on hashtag#China. English translation in the images below www.elmundo.es/opinion/edit...

Freeland argues "The world is at an inflection point. One of the battle lines is in Ukraine... [Its] success matters because it is fighting both for its own survival and for the rules-based international order. At the heart of this is a simple principle: sovereign states don’t invade each other."

China has executed some of the roughly 100 Canadian citizens it has imprisoned.

What does Putin really want? This short video nails it

Many thanks to The Norman Paterson School of International Affairs, Fen Hampson and Val Percival for inviting me to share my perspectives and assessments regarding China last month in Ottawa. The audience had some really good questions on how to manage current geopolitical challenges.

For #InternationalWomensDay, @crisisgroup.org's president and CEO, @comfortero.crisisgroup.org, presents her top 10 publications on how violence affects women and men and the role women play as survivors, fighters or peacemakers. ⬇️ #IWD2025 www.crisisgroup.org/global/comfo...

China announces 7.2% increase in official defence budget of ~$245 billion, although true spending may be 40% higher. PRC also projects GDP growth of 5%, which is highly improbable—so military spending is actually rising much faster than real growth. Why? Because the CCP seeks to dominate East Asia.

The US Treasury Secretary is urging Canada and Mexico to match US tariffs on China. That’s probably the best policy option for Canada, otherwise it’ll get hit with a flood of diverted goods.

The scale of hashtag #DPRK arms shipments to hashtag #Russia is breathtaking, as this excellent overview explains. Reportedly around half the shells currently used against Ukraine, plus 150 more Hwasong-11 missiles coming this year and now collaboration on hashtag #drone production.

In the Solomon Islands, supporting documents to complete a full audit into the 2023 Pacific Games expenditures have reportedly gone missing and may have been destroyed. Infrastructure for the games was heavily funded by China... 🤨

@OCCRP does great work rooting out crime and corruption, improving government transparency and holding the powerful to account. Governments and citizens should redouble support for its work.

Martin Wolf now argues “The US is now the enemy of the west”. It’s not too late for US & Europe, with support from allies, to help Ukraine negotiate from a position of strength. That would be consistent with Trump’s stated objective of ending the war

Please share this fact sheet on Ukraine with anyone who needs it understandingwar.org/backgrounder...

US will not give Ukraine security guarantees ‘beyond very much’, Donald Trump says

PLA Navy reportedly holding drills southeast of Sydney. Last year the same frigate was sighted docking in Vanuatu. Ship by ship, China is regularizing its naval presence in the South Pacific

China is helping Russia's military drone production by becoming a smuggling hub for critical components, Estonia's intel agency says

Good concise overview of #India’s geostrategic efforts to compete with #China: Why India isn’t winning the contest with China

#China is still requiring #Uyghurs to apply for permission to travel abroad, reports @hrw.org. Universal Declaration of Human Rights Art. 13: “Everyone has the right to leave any country, including his own, and to return to his country.” 己所不欲,勿施於人

#Canada-#China political relations remain as frosty as an Ottawa winter, I told @thewirechina.bsky.social. The main reasons are the CCP’s hostile agenda and unacceptable foreign interference in Canadian politics and society, as described here:

via @nytimes.com

New ICG report | Ukraine and Beyond: Shaping Europe’s Security Future - Diplomacy and deterrence are both required to bring a just and sustainable end to the conflict

🚨China’s building world’s largest military command centre in Beijing’s Xiangshan. #PLA megaproject is over 10 x size of Pentagon and likely includes underground bunkers. One more sign the #CCP is girding itself for major conflict and pursuing hegemony.

Seems timely to re-up this essay by Palantir CTO Shyam Sankar. Recommended reading: The Defense Reformation

CIA says Covid-19 probably leaked from Chinese laboratory via @financialtimes.com

More red🚦 lights for #China investors from this week’s headlines. I’ve been conveying this warning for years now. Good to see at least some decision-makers are listening on.ft.com/40InOxP on.ft.com/4awgfxx