A factoid that will blow some minds - PA-03 results with white-majority wards EXCLUDED: 🥇 Chris Rabb - 34,647 - 36.80% 🥈 Sharif Street - 33,220 - 35.29% 🥉 Ala Stanford - 24,437 - 25.96%

So what happened? Street won West Philly, but Rabb won Center City by even more. Meanwhile, Stanford held up pretty well, limiting Street's margin in his best wards. And progressive wards posted huge margins for Rabb.

Mail vote in HD-195, where WFP-backed Sierra McNeil is challenging incumbent Keith Harris

With the eyes of the nation on PA-03 (my district), I'm gonna do a thread on each candidate's path to victory and how I'll be looking at the returns tonight Full disclosure that I canvassed for Chris Rabb in this race, but as PAMaps I'm aiming for objective analysis

🚨 MAJOR BREAKING NEWS🚨 The Commonwealth Court of Pennsylvania strikes down a law restricting Medicaid from funding abortion, and in doing so recognizes a "reproductive autonomy" as a fundamental right in the state constitution. www.inquirer.com/news/pennsyl...

With 42/44 precincts reporting, Republican Andrea Verobish will be the next State Rep for Altoona and its environs. She leads by 15%, an underperformance of around 17% compared to Trump '24.

Today is the first time I've ever been to the Blair County election results page and that alone says something

I'm exhausted by all the efforts to rewrite the history of the 2022 US Senate primary in Pennsylvania, with folks insisting "we told you so!" as to Fetterman, that Conor Lamb was always the better choice, and generally ignoring Malcolm Kenyatta's historic candidacy. So let me say a few things. 🧵1/

Thread of stories run by Bari Weiss's group blog that did not ask the targets of (frequently uncorroborated) accusations for comment, let alone give them a preemptive veto over the story:

Does he really think interrupting the Survivor finale for this will endear him to anyone?

Tuesday saw a seismic shift on the Susquehanna’s west bank Ancestrally Republican Cumberland County didn’t just vote for Democrats at the top of the ticket, it also elected Dems to 3 county-level offices Thread on the RECORDER OF DEEDS race and its State House implications (1/9)

~18% overperformance in the NY media market

BLUEZERNE COUNTY COUNCIL

Just spot-checking some fully-reported precincts in bellwether Northampton County, the Democratic judicial candidates are outperforming Biden by ~20%. This is looking like a landslide.

The races for PA Commonwealth and Superior Court have gotten surprisingly little attention. Those are hugely important and are likely to be much closer than the retention votes. If you need any more motivation to cast a ballot, here it is.

the actual contrast is between spanberger/mamdani (focused message, vigorous campaigns) and sherrill (unfocused, half-hearted)

PENNSYLVANIA is now the first state with multiple Democratic House members to have the majority of its House Democratic caucus cosponsor the Block the Bombs Act (Lee, Scanlon, Dean, and Evans) www.congress.gov/bill/119th-c...

30 Districts

With 35% of precincts reporting, Krasner looks to be replicating his 2021 coalition powered by Black voters across the city plus white neighborhoods outside the Northeast

The last time Lancaster County elected a Democrat to the Pennsylvania Senate was in 1889, when John S. Hoover won a special election. 136 years later, James Malone joins the club.

With all precincts reporting, Democrat James Malone leads by 0.89%. Keep in mind, SD-36 completely excludes the City of Lancaster. It's the once reliably-red suburbs, exurbs, and small towns that have flipped this district.

I'm ready to call it: Democrat James Malone has FLIPPED SD-36. It will be the first time in who knows how long that Lancaster County has elected a Democrat to the State Senate.

Solid batch for Dem. James Malone. 89/120 precincts in and he's beating his benchmarks by about 1% on average. Rep. Josh Parsons needs to do several points better the rest of the way to catch up.

With 68/120 precincts reporting in SD-36, Democrat James Malone is beating his benchmarks in 42 precincts, and Republican Josh Parsons is beating his in 26. My model says we're headed for a close race, with Malone having a slight edge at the moment.

Another way I'm looking at PA SD-36 results so far: Dems lost this district by 12% in the 2023 Supreme Court race. In the 5% of precincts reporting election day votes so far, the Dem is overperforming that result by 15%.

6/120 precincts reporting election-day votes, and Democrat James Malone is beating his benchmarks in 5 of them.

Today's special election in northern Lancaster County presents the tantalizing but longshot possibility that the R-friendly incumbentmander of Pennsylvania's senatorial map could fail. I'll be following along just in case this gets interesting.

Out of the three Harris district Republicans in Congress, one has clearly proven himself as the best (when it comes to overperforming), Brian Fitzpatrick in #PA01. Despite Harris carrying his suburban Philly district, Fitzpatrick easily won re-election last year, winning by 13!

Last year in #PA08, we saw Democratic incumbent Matt Cartwright lose re-election to Republican Rob Bresnahan by about two points. This NEPA district has been trending to the right in the Trump era and Trump winning this district by 8 was probably enough to cost Cartwright.

Shapiro>Fetterman "Gov. Josh Shapiro Blasts Trump’s ‘Deeply Disrespectful’ and ‘Unserious’ Gaza Proposal in Interview With Stephen A. Smith" www.mediaite.com/podcasts/gov...

I’ve mapped the 2024 PA Row Office elections by State House district In each race the Republican won 109 districts to the Democrat’s 94 HD-2 voted Sunday-Kenyatta-McClelland, while HD-30 voted DePasquale-DeFoor-Garrity

my latest @teenvogue.bsky.social my heart broke watching Pasadena, Octavia Butler's hometown, where her middle school is named for her, burn. 5 schools have been damaged. "Octavia knew"—so did Mike Davis—from studying history. denialism and targeting libraries got us here. what will we do?

THREAD on the decisive House District 172: A New Kind of Pennsylvania Battleground (1/11)

This is an interview worth listening to. Picozzi gives off genuine interest in tackling the problems young people are facing, doubtful as I am that his fellow Republicans in Harrisburg have the solutions. But Picozzi sounds like he could be governor one day. www.nbcphiladelphia.com/decision-202...

I'm not analyzing at the precinct level but Jim Haddock (D) is ahead on both election day and mail-in votes

HD144: Republican challenger McPhillips is beating his targets in 2 of 3 reported precincts so far

HD44: Haas continues to improve over '22, but will it be by enough? The latest batch is less optimistic

My model is ready to call HD28 for Jeremy Shaffer (R)

I have data in 4/42 precincts in HD44 and its a mixed bag. My model has it as a tossup.

HD44 has its first precinct fully reported, and Hadley Haas outperformed her target by 6% in her bid to flip the district

HD28: Petulla (D) is 2%-6% behind the margins he needs in the 2 fully reported precincts so far

A reminder of how Trump responded when a supporter broke into Nancy Pelosi's home and brutally attacked her husband with a hammer:

ANNOUNCING: The Keystone Nine Both chambers of Pennsylvania's legislature are up for grabs. Along with other PA mappers, we launched a fund split between the 9 most strategic races to win Democratic majorities and advance progressive legislation. In just a week we've raised over $5,000.

If PA's state house map were redrawn based on the county-level population estimates published this week, HD10 would likely move from Philadelphia to western Cumberland County, as shown below Adams, Cumberland, Dauphin, and York are currently underrepresented by 0.72 districts

And here's the 2023 Pennsylvania Supreme Court election by State Senate district Dem Dan McCaffery won 29/50 districts, including 4 that were won by Republicans in 2022, and 3 R-held seats that are up this year Those are: SD15, by 11% SD37, by 2.7% SD49, by 0.1% (62 votes!)

At long last, I present the 2023 Pennsylvania Supreme Court election by State House district   Democrat Dan McCaffery won a whopping 112/203 districts, as Republicans’ downballot strength in the exurbs evaporated in response to the Dobbs decision

Dems last month flipped control of PA's capital county. How? A pastor & local activist came out of nowhere to score upset for the ages... after campaign almost entirely devoted to highlighting jail death crisis (!). Now the outsider is thrust in the inside. a WOW story:

Who would represent this State Senate district?

Celebrating 100 followers on Bluesky with this map of 2022 performance by State House candidates compared to the US Senate race

1,052,935 Democrats voted in the 2023 PA Supreme Court Primary, compared to 823,925 Republicans   Looking by House district, some of that gap is explained by ancestral Dems   But Dem turnout was also strong in places you might not expect, like the Lehigh Valley and Central Bucks