Not a lame duck, an injured animal.

@torstenbell.bsky.social said 'life is more complicated than think tank reports', but I am delighted to see him involved directly. That said, the interview on @newsagents.bsky.social felt super partisan (from both sides). Pre MP, I heard balanced thoughtfulness; he is not using his strengths.

The Ukraine corruption issue of circa $100m since the war started is concerning, but it feels worth remembering that the US president and family are reputed to have grifted $1-2 Bn just this year. With no war. Even scaling 160x to US economy size, that's 10% of the same scale.

If Labour needs to break a manifesto committment then why not the EU single market and customs union one. It has general support in country, would help market confidence. It's all upside

This made me cross check the stats. It looks about 10x worse due to Brexit (some noise as 'back of lorry' switched to 'small boat'. 'Yeah, go soverenty'

AI is not steel or coal or wool or rare earths. It's mass free and moves at the speed. So, why does it matter if we have big #AI data centres in the UK? Data ought not to leak from well designed systems, or at least is no more likely in the USA, Norway (lots of hydro energy), etc. (1/2)

UK government is considering support for #JLR suppliers whilst Jaguar is shut down due to cyber attack. Why is that not something Jaguar pays for? I'm sure there is more in it, but can't quite see what

I was with @rory-stewart.bsky.social on USA election. I couldn't believe Trump would win, it was too self-evidently mad for a popular vote win. Now I look at the UK with a similar view on Farage/Reform. They so objectively failed on Brexit, so surely it couldn't happen, SURELY. :-(

Has the two week #Trump warning for #Putin finished yet? I mean the latest one just in case it's not clear amongst the several that there have been

America under Trump and his monkeys. Madder and madder and madder. And badder.

Motherfucking wind farms…

If Attention was 'All You Need' for AIs, then popular conspiracy theories would be true .. and they are (mostly) not. But, it might sadly be enough to reach what is commonly displayed human intelligence. I so wish that there was a similar breakthrough in symbolic grounding and probability. #AI

I realise (maybe slow to it!) that #fakenews is a legally useful statement. It doesn't say the thing is false, though it clearly implies exactly that. It says that as NEWS is it fake - that could be argued to be true if the thing is true, but not judged, in the view of the speaker, as newsworthy

@therestpolitics.bsky.social @rory-stewart.bsky.social I am a huge fan, and typically love the explainers ... but the AI one today felt very mixed up. Conflated LLM with other AI and much more. Also not clear to me that the regulation suggestion can work as you hope vs. excess value capture

In the UK, defence looks like the straw that breaks the fiscal camel’s back. Lifting to 5% of GDP adds ~£70bn/year. Truss reminded that markets punish overreach fast. So I was wondering - Where would you find £70bn—taxes, pensions, EU growth, spending cuts… or risk a smaller rise?🧵 1/7

@restispolitics.bsky.social , @rory-stewart.bsky.social said this week that even at 5%, UK could not defend itself against Russia alone. I get that at absolute spend levels, but historically there was a defender premium (took more 2-3 x more resource to attack than to defend). Has that changed?

@jonsopel1.bsky.social the 'next version' of AI is not generative. This one is - the G in GPT is 'Generative'

So, 90 day delay seems enough time for a new reality TV plot twist. Do you think it will be a reheat of Greenland, Gaza or Ukraine, or something new? Or both?

Surely there is a massive arbitrage opportunity from #trump #tariff s? And fraud for that matter. Basically just redirect trade through a third country. Vanilla pods from UK, coffee from Canada, ... A new drop shipping boom?

via chatGPT (as could Elon Musk in 60 seconds), shows 2.6% for 2019, including people ringing ABOUT scams as well as to attempt fraud. So a lower bound, at least in 2019, shows Musks figure to be over 1500% of the real figure. Musk is a ridiculous, analytically illiterate, little man.

#DOGE ... It should be pronounced #dodgy ; the poster child for nominative determinism.

If #canada was to join the USA, which wasn't attractive (healthcare etc.), and much less so in the current dumpster fire mode, it wouldn't be a single 51st state. More like 5-7 states based on population, and def. no less than 4. It would change USA politics dramatically away from MAGA.

Tesla share price now very close then the level when Elon bought Twitter, for which I understand he took out a roughly $6bn loan secured on a big chunk of his Tesla shares. I wonder what price for Tesla shares would cause him challenges with that loan security #Tesla

AI prompt 'engineering' is closer to social engineering than systems engineering. The levers connect to the dials, but in mysterious, non-deterministic, ways. #AI

I've always liked @economist.com - reliable, consise, and insightful analysis, and weekly ought to be fast enough for routine news. It's feeling less current since Trump 2 , and also needs a bigger dose of WTF than is common for major state geopolitics. But that only indicates how mad that is.

I agree that Europe needs to step up funding for defense materially. It's very clear. Pity we can't collectively do the same for climate change; the collective threat is higher.

Fair to say tariffs are a one-off rise, not a year on year inflationary change. But 25% one-off is the same as 8%/year for each of three years, and all up front. So, pretty chunky. #tariffs

It's at times like this, with USA turning it's back on international agreements and chances of trust in the next decades, and internal chaos and corruption that I am reminded of the risks of predictions of a 'worst case' that needs only small tweaks. See gregpye.wordpress.com/2010/05/05/p...

If DOGE is for radical transparency, and GOP wants to allow for value in tax cuts, should they have professional accountants vouching for the gross savings? And some suitable group calculating best view of net impact given what is not done?

I'd love to see more from the UK. But, I know I am steered by what I interact with, and so am a bit doomed by car crash US news that I can't help but look at

I've heard that some GOP congress folks won't speak out against trump, noting that if they do they risk getting replaced by a maga person. That might well be true, but what does it matter if the critical damage is now? It needs sand in the madly, self-destructively spinning gears of the machine.

In a few years, I reckon less than 20% of Americans who voted will admit they voted for trump et al. And 19 of the remaining 20 will have some excuse that only that 19% think is plausible.

Astonishing and disheartening that not only are the next two in line for US presidency almost as uncredible (and that's saying something), it's for quite distinct reasons. None of the three look remotely presidential. Or even fit to lead a village council

It's often said you should watch what trump does, with what he says often just design to 'irritate the libs'. Is there any way to tie HIM in knots when he lies? Like democrats table all his statements as legislative proposals, but with a 'when it's shown to be true' clause.?

I am going to play Subnautica again. It's hard to suspend disbelief, but then again story is more credible than most of the real world right now

Why not move all the MAGA folks to Alaska (there's loads of space), then leave the rest of the USA as prime real-estate for anyone not MAGA. Totally unreasonable I know. And illegal under Geneva convention. But, you know, the Trump model for Gaza is ok in his eyes

If I understand right, Trump might flout the courts, but his pet lawyers can get disbarred by the association that he does not control (Guiliani etc.). Might be another way to get to a just outcome

I'd say it's unbelievable, but sadly it's wholly believable. Just like Musks comment on 'most transparent ever'. They are right that lots of US government approaches are shocking and fraudulent ... but miss that they ARE the government.

This is a really interesting perspective. Like many of the really good ones, it feels obvious now, and I hadn't considered it at all before.

If UK & EU agreed to allow UK to rejoin EU on same basis it had before, if there was a UK supermajority for it in a referendum, with reason for reasoning being that a) there was endemic lying and misinformation now clear to all in economic data, and b) world is very different. Would 66% say yes?

So Trump wants to build new 'nice' infrastructure for the Palestinians. Good idea. Do it in Gaza. And employ Palestinians to do it. Maybe via USAID as that's the kind of soft power benefit it is for

Boy, what a timeline we are in. darioamodei.com/on-deepseek-... I feel like, as with space, regulation will await something terrifying happening. It's just a question of what and when.

Japanese roboticists have developed a robotic tentacle 🤖🐙! It mimics an octopus, skillfully grabbing objects with ease. #Robotics #Innovation #AI

MASDAR’s project- if the hype lives up to the reality - offers despatchable solar power on a non-intermittent basis . The power is firmed up by batteries. The question is: at what cost? Let’s take a stab www.reuters.com/business/ene...

The past two days we seen something interesting in the European power market: continent wide balancing that is providing security of supply at the lowest prices driven by commercial incentives…

Not sure of the mechanics, but as a transactional power play Trump might understand, why doesn't California have a vote on seceding from the USA. Taking SF, LA and the vast bulk of upside in the US stock markets.

Being a person with deadly, incurable cancer who is nonetheless still alive for an indefinite timeframe gives me an interesting metaphor that helps me deal with things like large-scale corruption in government or commerce. Bear with me for a second while I try to explain.

"The science of extreme longevity continues as an immense joke." —The first man to “survive” past 110 actually died at 65. —Blue zones are a myth —Pervasive false claims about longevity and supercentenarians Gift link www.nytimes.com/2025/01/20/o...

A breathtakingly brilliant piece by Edward Docx. Absolutely magnificent. What a writer. www.theguardian.com/books/2025/j...