Arizona has ~1,700 voting precincts. Since 2012, 176 have shifted left 3x in presidential elections. 66 have shifted right 3x. I'm calling these Triple Trending precincts Triple Right precincts tend to have a higher share of Latino voters The precincts still vote Democratic, but a rate than 2012

Zoom, Google Meets, Microsoft Teams, and WebEx are all the same software. But somehow Teams is always the worst.

There is no strict Constitutional prohibition against spitting on another player so it's hard to see why Jalen Carter was ejected from the game. by Jonathan Turley

State Election Director Lisa Marra and Maricopa County Director of Election Services and Early Voting Rey Valenzuela were inducted into the Election Officials’ Hall of Fame at the 40th Annual National Conference in Salt Lake City, Utah. Election Center photos by Karl Dukstein

Oh you went for a run 100 days straight? That’s nice, I did the Wordle instead.

Oh, it wasn’t a for a geology lesson? 🤷‍♂️

*Hank Hill Voice I don’t want a password for milk. I want hot water for tea!

If you’re not donating directly to a candidate or local political party, it’s probably a scam.

Imagine if No Labels could even get organized enough to gather the minimum number of signatures to simply appear on a primary ballot.

Looking a little more at AZ-07, @dejafoxx.bsky.social unsurprisingly did well among younger voters. Generally speaking, precincts with a higher share of under 35 voters also saw a higher share of Foxx vote %. Her best* performance in Pima county was in and around the U of A precincts.

Orion's Belt

FWIW in AZ-07 Foxx won 32% of the poll vote vs 20% of the early vote. Election day voters often skew younger. Adelita won 56% of poll voters vs 62% of early voters.

This article didn't age well BUT I hope this isn't Deja's last run for office. AZ needs candidates like her. AZ-07 has an outsider progressive candidate. AZ-01 could use some new energy...

The semi-annual tradition of F5 at results.arizona.vote has begun

AZ-07 7/15 Election Day Update 64k total returns in the district, just under 50k on the Democratic side. I'd estimate this ~85% of all ballots cast in the race. 65+ voters make up 53% of returns, down 2% from 7/11. Voters 20-54 increased their vote share 24.8% to 26.2% since 7/11

AZ-07 Update 7/14 Posting some data from Friday. Yuma and Santa Cruz counties had nice backfills with data (they report weekly). Dem turnout is now over 25%. Pima County turnout is at 31.4% Maricopa turnout is surprisingly low considering daily updates.

And Tucson has another election happening now? What a fun time to in the early ballot business

AZ-07 Update 7/11 ~3.5k ballots returned yesterday for a district total of 55.6k. 42.4k are Democratic. Most returns are through Thursday, these ballots are first to appear 8pm on Tuesday Younger Dem voters are increasing vote share, but still only make up 10% of all returns. 65+ is 55% of voters

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AZ-07 Update 7/10 Good news is that I caught my ballot mistake before anyone noticed. On yesterday's report, Maricopa totals were doubled. +2k Ballots from Pima and 656 from Maricopa (-2.2k Net) are added to the tracker. 3-6.5k returns per day over the last week. A drop from week one, but normal

AZ-07 Update 7/9 ~8k ballots added to the tracker. Updates from all counties. Santa Cruz jumping slightly ahead of Yuma in total returns. SC had more ballots in the 2024 primary but fewer in 2022 vs Yuma. Dem turnout is now over 20%, far outpacing GOP and 3rd party.

Pam Bondi Confirms The Winds of Winter was also Sitting On Her Desk Waiting To Be Reviewed

AZ-07 Maricopa Update 7/8 Adding ~800 total ballots just from Maricopa County today. Additional ballots likely this afternoon. Democratic ballot returns are getting slightly younger, Voters aged 65+ make up 57% of returns. Voters aged 25-34 have the lowest turnout of any group at 6.9%

AZ-07 7/7 Update Updated totals from each county except Pinal. Total Dem returns are now 33k or 17.3% turnout. Independents make up 10% of all Democratic ballot returns. 71% of ballot returns are from Pima County. In the past AZ-07 July primaries, Pima made up 68% of all voters.

I’m receiving an above average number of fundraising texts early in the quarter. Is this a new PAC strategy? My current favorite 👇

Here are my 4th of July Smores Brownies. I made them. I eat them.

AZ-07 July 4th Update Wasn't expecting an update today, but here we are. Just over 5k ballots posted from yesterday. Santa Cruz is on the board with 1.2k returns. Dem turnout climbs to 30.4k returns and 15.5% turnout.

AZ07 Thursday Update Not much to report here, 626 ballots from Maricopa County seen today. Nothing from the other counties.

Do not launch fireworks off your body this #July4th

#AZ-07 Wednesday Update Yuma County posting their first large file today with 2.5k returns. Pima, Maricopa, and Cochise totals also updated. 24k Dem ballot returns, turnout is 12.3% Voters aged 65+ still making up 60% of returns. Turnout from voters under 34 = 1.7%

#AZ-07 Tuesday Update 22k total returns including 1 (one) from Yuma County. Dem turnout climbing towards double digits, still at 8.6%. Maricopa jumped to 9% with 500 returns today.

#AZ-07 Monday Update 11.6k Democratic returns (posting GOP returns because a splash of color is nice on my charts) Indy-Dem returns have fallen to 8.5% of all returns. Cochise and Pima are just over 9% turnout. I'd expect Maricopa turnout to be similar to Pima. Maybe MCRO is preoccupied

I like safety content with a touch of danger

#AZ-07 early ballots from Cochise, Pinal, Pima, and Maricopa Counties today. Most coming from Pima (4.4k) Dem turnout up to 7.4%. For reference the 2024 August primary had a total of 39% Democratic turnout.

#AZ07 Update ~450 returns from Maricopa County today. Didn't see a Pima or other counties. Maybe we get two tomorrow? Independents make up 14% of Dem returns. I'd expect that to drop over time. Voters aged 65+ make up 65% of all ballot returns. Typical for this early in a primary election.

So much to chew on with the Pew validated-voter study, starting with this graphic re: what happened to 2020's voters. Trump 2020: 85% stuck with him in 2024, 3% to Harris, 11% didn't vote. Biden 2020: 79% stayed with Harris, 5% to Trump, 15% didn't vote. www.pewresearch.org/politics/202...

AZ-07 Early Ballot Returns First large file from Pima County today. ~3,600 total returns. Dem turnout is now at 1.5%. I'd expect the first big Maricopa file to come tomorrow. Still hunting down Yuma and Santa Cruz.

Pima (283) and Maricopa (9) ballots added today. Again, not too much to clean for AZ-07 turnout. Not sure if anyone will be collecting Yuma and Santa Cruz County data. I'll let the 4 Pinal precincts slide on this one.

Good paying new jobs? Governor confirms DBacks will be buyers at the trade deadline.

8! total returns for the AZ-07 special election on the Democratic side. Nothing to see here other than I have my query set up. All returns are from Cochise County.

ICE has a negative WAR

Waiting on AZ-07 early returns data. Doubt there would be anything useful on day 2 of EV. Here's what the County Vote share looked like for the past 2 Dem primaries. Pima County made up 69% of returned ballots. SC, Maricopa, and Yuma made up between 7-10% of returns each.

Not expecting any AZ-07 request or return data until Friday. Until then please enjoy some line chart showing ballot returns for the 2022 and 2024 AZ-07 Democratic Primary By the start of week 3, more than 60% of ballots had already been returned. I'd expect that number to be higher in the special

For some reason I thought AZ07 early voting started today and I was not at all prepared. Luckily I have another week to not prepare.

Happy to have Uplift with reputable neighbors.

Gifted article 🎁 www.nytimes.com/interactive/...

We're just waiting for the Cardinals to confirm whether undated, misdated, or naked papal ballots can be counted in this election.

Here's what turnout looked like in Arizona's 39 precincts with 0 registered voters. Over 40% of these precincts had 0% turnout. Maricopa County had the most (29) precincts with 0% turnout. Navajo was next with 4. 9 counties in Arizona have no precincts with zero voters.

Arizona Presidential results by FAA Air Traffic Control Zones. Trump easily carried the Los Angeles Zone with 70.5% of the vote. Harris took the Denver portion with 77%, largely boosted with support from the Navajo and Hopi Nation. The Albuquerque Zone leaned GOP with 53% Trump support.

As @tcani.bsky.social has been mentioning for months.