The birth of a family of supercells in eastern Nebraska: #NEwx (testing to see if gifs work yet...)

Flattered to have the Editor's highlight featuring my recent spotting paper: Weather Radar Data Reveal the Dynamics of Rapidly Spreading Wildfires eos.org/editor-highl...

Extreme wildfire spread isn’t just wind-driven. We show the Camp Fire’s explosive growth came from plume-coupled spotting: embers lofted, transported, and deposited in organized zones 5–10+ km ahead, igniting new fire fronts. agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10....

Fires, plumes, and wind shifts. Stay clear of the south flank of these fires in Nebraska, which will open up as the front surges through.

New paper out! We document tornado-strength (98 mph) counter-rotating vortices that developed within California’s 2021 #DixieFire. These fire-generated vortices reshaped the fire front and spread, posing immediate risks to firefighters and civilians. doi.org/10.1175/MWR-...

Cumulonimbus.

Water levels are fluctuating rapidly as the tsunami hits Midway Island, 1,200 miles northwest of Hawaii... wow.

ACSL ALQDS

Diverting money from science funding for immigration crack downs is dumb. Science funding provides enormous ROI. Deporting & intimidating unauthorized immigrants undermines the functioning and growth of our economy. In other words, you spend money to lose money, or negative ROI.

Updated figure from Jain et al. showing global extreme fire weather trends since 1979. Metrics are global 95th percentile of annual Fire Weather Index (FWI), Initial Spread Index (ISI) and the Vapor Pressure Deficit (VPD). The trend is clear - we are seeing more extreme fire weather due to warming.

1/n: Still trying to understand the Lake Tahoe boating disaster from this past weekend. I like letting the data lead. Lets start with the radar, where I've added a red line annotating the clear, coherent wind shift associated with the front sagging south across the region.

Visible & Infrared images from #GOES19/#GOESEast showed that the #TroutFire in New Mexico produced a #pyrocumulonimbus (pyroCb) cloud on 14 June - the first pyroCb in the US for the 2025. More on the CIMSS Satellite Blog: cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/satellite-bl... H/T @neillareau.bsky.social

Total estimated emissions of 2025 Canadian #wildfires to 03/06 at ~50 MtC, comparable to 2023 record over same period, and increasing. #CopernicusAtmosphere Global Fire Assimilation System data based on MODIS🛰️ active fire obs ads.atmosphere.copernicus.eu/datasets/cam... @copernicusecmwf.bsky.social

More from today’s Rx burn:

Good day for good fire in #Truckee!

As noted by NRL's Mike Fromm, another exceptional #PryoCB today in Saskatchewan this afternoon.

Robust plumes of pyrocumulonimbus billow from wildfires in Alberta. These were among many wildfires exhibiting extreme behavior yesterday across Canada.

Massive smoke plumes from fires in Saskatchewan and Manitoba this evening. GOES East-geocolor loop below.

Evening visitor

Did you know that in 2021 the Dixie Fire yielded spot fires 10 miles from the fire front? Want to know how? My new paper examines the plume dynamics driving these extreme spotting events: agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/...

Active fires in Saskatchewan this afternoon. Mid-ir shows some very active fires (red/bright white) and a possible pyrocb (fire generated thunderstorm) in the GOES-West Geocolor.

Circumzenithal arc.

Impressive fire activity today in New Jersey. Here is a 3D radar view of the plume structure from the #JonesFire during its peak fire intensity.

Cool example of preferential convection initiation on the snowy-to-snow-free boundary on the west slopes of the Sierra. Note the deeper cloud formation over the heated land as opposed to the snowpack (green).

2+ ft of beautiful snow yesterday densified overnight, yielding excellent skiing this morning. Just wish I had more time!!

Been an amazing day of #ShastaCountyConvergenceZone (SCCZ) activity.

Classic early spring inter-mountain frontogenesis today: (1) Satellite image, (2) surface temperatures and rough diagram of the confluent region, (3) cross front diabatic heating differences helping to sharpen the front, (4) frontogenesis function (purple contours) from GFS.

Double barreled Shasta County Convergence Zone

Fires (black dots) and plume (radar/green/blue) popping up amidst the blowing dust in Texas and Oklahoma. Could be ugly when the wind shift hits...

3/13/2025 10am Update: We had 27" (68.5 cm) of #snow accumulation in the last 24 hours, which brings our storm total to 27.8" (70.5 cm). Light to moderate snow will deliver a few more inches today and another significant storm will move in tomorrow morning. #CAwx #CAwater

Costs of child care now outpace college tuition in 38 states, analysis finds missouriindependent.com/briefs/costs...

Come join our growing wildfire fire team at TRU. We are hiring a new assistant/associate fire professor in Arts & Tourism. Closes 26 March 2025 tru.hua.hrsmart.com/hr/ats/Posti...

SCOOP: 2 NWS Bay Area employees were fired today. They were on their probationary period: A meteorologist & an administrative support assistant. "We already have a number of vacancies, so this will affect us in running 24-hr shifts." Dalton Behringer, the office's union steward @kqednews.kqed.org

In 2024 a significant portion of BC area burned was due to 2023 fires that survived the winter (see figure on the left side). The current fire situation is on the right side wildfiresituation.nrs.gov.bc.ca/map and some are 2023 fires. First time I have seen fires survive two winters in Canada.

Out and about

I'm a reporter at the SF Chronicle hoping to speak with scientists who were impacted by the government firings. Specifically NOAA scientists, especially those in California. Open to hearing from you on the record, off the record or anonymously. email: [email protected] DMs open

Debris basins quickly filling up in the foothills of the Eaton burn scar. Here’s Sierra Madre Canyon. #CAwx

Sierra crest looking mighty fine today. (Frog Lake cliffs and Castle Peak)

Resetting the brain chemistry.

Impressive 72-hr precip totals across NorCal, including the always-consistent climatological maxima near Oroville (>19"). Seems like a good spot for a reservoir, eh?

Note the wind ripping along that boundary (wind mode below) to severe thunderstorm warning levels approaching 2pm. Expecting strong gusts into San Francisco and down the peninsula in the next 30 minutes. #CAwx 2/4/2024

Finally: Large aggregates falling in #Truckee today. I much prefer frozen precipitation. Been a tough stretch of heavy rain, so great to see the landscape painted white.

Stunning example of the "Shasta county convergence zone", apparent as the stationary linear convective feature embedded within the broader AR #sccz

Gotta love those 10Kft snow levels (measured west of the Sierra Crest in Colfax)... Sooo much rain in #Truckee today. Granted looks like still mostly snow at 8500+ft over on @MtRoseSkiTahoe, suggesting locally lower snow levels over the peaks.

Curious if anyone can provide context with how similar/dfferent this is than what occurred in 2017. I recall DOE grants being paused and reviewed for alignedment with executive priorities at the time… www.nytimes.com/live/2025/01...

I’ve given up on new snow and moved on to a mini yard rink. I’d prefer not to say just how long it took to get this small patch… way longer than reasonable!

Just had a sample of the Eaton Fire ash that is in my driveway run on the department XRF. Is there titanium (new house paint)? Yup. Lead (old house paint)? You betcha. Heavy metals? Check. Treat that ash like it's toxic folks (because it is)

Great jeopardy question tonight! An even better question… what is the name of the associated unit of measure?

There’s drier than average and there’s what’s ongoing in SoCal since last year. The last day with at least 0.10” rain in Downtown LA was on May 5th, 255 days ago per @NWSLosAngeles @NBCLA #FireWx #CAwx 1/17/2025

Two very different landscapes. NV->LA. #AMS2025