As of August, the model put the chance of a recession at 48%. Historically, a recession has unfolded after crossing the 50% mark. The model considers movement in economic gauges like the unemployment rate, the Treasury yield curve, and the inflation rate.

The first shows a model from Moody's, shared by their chief economist Mark Zandi, who recently said that recession odds are "uncomfortably high."

The US is launching a bailout of Argentina one month before that country’s midterm elections.

Bob Iger has a real chance to be a hero here and say “Fuck you. Make me.” to the FCC by reinstating Kimmel. I’ll sign back up for Disney+ if he does. Until then, keep canceling your subscriptions!

Another authoritarian red flag 🚩 Pentagon reporters can no longer gather or share information unless the government signs off first. And if they get away with it here, nothing is off limits next.

The backlash to ABC/Disney canceling Kimmel has been swift, and severe. The whole episode underscores something I've been blogging about for a while: A lot of powerful people just don’t realize how unpopular Trump is www.gelliottmorris.com/p/a-lot-of-p...

Pregnant women want to protect their babies. But the trump regime falsely claims Tylenol causes harm—without science to back it. There’s no link to autism! Such fear may push women to riskier meds. Always talk to your OB-GYN about safe options during pregnancy.

Effective resistance is 1. Using numerical superiority to stop confirmation of bad nominees and to stop bad legislation from passing 2. Gerrymandering retaliation 3. Go to court. Messaging is subjective. This is a big, diverse tent. Independent voters and moderate voters decide elections.

🚨 Some of the best trolling of the FCC I could have imagined — being released. Adam Kinzinger is speaking truth to power. A MUST watch.

People holding to factually false claims that they could look up and correct. This drives me crazy.

I "also found Tim Duncan's averages against Karl Malone in those same 25 games: ​Points: 25.2 ​Rebounds: 11.3 ​Assists: 3.0 ​Blocks: 2.7 ​Steals: 0.6 ​It appears Tim Duncan had higher averages in points and rebounds during their head-to-head matchups, while Karl Malone had more assists.*

Malone scored 20 points per game, grabbed 9.9 rebounds per game and 4 assists per game. Duncan has 25.2 points per game, grabbed 11.3 rebounds per game, 3 assists per game, 2.7 blocks per game and .6 steals per game.

Ppl jump to conclusions they want to believe, look at a few carefully chosen clips & tell us Hakeem killed Duncan & Malone crushed Duncan . TD vs Hakeem 20, 11.2, 2.8, 2.2 vs 13.8, 8.9, 3 blocks per game TD vs Malone 25.2ppg, 11.3 rbg, 2.7 apg, 3.0 apg, .6 vs 20 ppg, 9.9 rbg, 4 assists per game

Whoever is our nominee must commit to nominating an aggressive and progressive prosecutor as the AG & no recusal and Republican special counsel (Jack Smith was awesome though). Our next Democratic president must be willing to fire their AG if the AG doesn't prosecute all the fascists 4 their fascism

Eric Swallwell's statement was so good! Succinct and direct! 2026 and 2028 Democrats are going forward with this and I will be looking down smiling when this happens. All who are here alive in the United States who oppose fascism are morally obligated to carry this out.

I generally have appreciated Pondering Politics, but he can't figure out the difference between the government pressuring to fire a media personality and one group of citizens exercising their free speech in response to a different group of citizens exercising theirs. Can't support bothsiderism.

It is 51% in favor of California redistricting, 34% opposed, 15% undecided according to a new Emerson poll.

Debating with AI about whether MAGA are free agents who are choosing to accept important and false claims for which the amount of publicly available evidence to disprove the claims is enormous. We expect adults to adjust to truth about the most important truth claims.

D+8 A+ pollsters Dems lead on the ballot choice Midterms Polls become reality only when we do everything we can. We all know that, but somebody will say it. Trump's fascism which is getting worse even though it seems impossible that it could get worse, does. However, it's radically unpopular.

If this were discovered in a leaked email and published in the New York Times, it might get more attention. But Trump just tweets it out, and most people move on with their day. This is blatant corruption. Blatant weaponization. It is undeniably an impeachable offense.

No words needed. #trumpcrimefamily #pinks

He watched the insurrection. He sent tweets to turn the mob against Pence. The mob had a gallows for Pence. He didn't send in troops to stop the assault on the Capitol. The one use of "peacefully" cannot overcome all of this. The idea it could is absurd.

He sent these angry armed people to the Capitol when he knew Pence and the members of Congress were collecting,counting, and certifying the electoral college votes.

It strongly implies that he believed they were there to harm others, namely Mike Pence and the members of Congress. He told this armed crowd to go to the Capitol, "We're going to the Capitol!"

So he said, "Can we take down the mags please? They're not here to hurt me!" This shows he knew they were heavily armed. If it was one person, why bother?

He saw a lot of people were at the rally. Yet he saw a lot of empty space near the stage. Then he realized why that space was vacant. He realized these people did not want to have to pass through the magnetometers and surrender their weapons.

and not count the legitimate Democratic electoral college votes from the six swing states Biden won. He told them, "You have to fight like Hell or you're not going to have a country anymore!"

He was clearly trying to stay in office despite losing the election. The mob was part of that attempt. He picked the date and location to enable the mob to pressure Mike Pence and the members of Congress into counting the fake Republican electoral college votes

His intent is manifest by trying to pressure Pence into counting the fake illegitimate Republican electoral college votes from the swing states and not the legitimate Democratic electoral college votes from those same states.

His intent is manifest by trying to get the votes from the fake illegitimate Republican slate of electors in the six swing states Biden won counted and to reject the legitimate Democratic electoral college votes from those same states.

While Congress was starting the process of collecting, counting, and certifying the electoral college votes, he was telling these people that Congress and Pence were right then stealing the election and here is their opportunity to stop it.

But that one reference to peace cannot overcome his manifest intent and the context. He picked the date and location so the mob would be able to easily assault the Capitol on the day the electoral college votes were collected, counted, and certified.

The lawyers tried to protect Trump by putting in a half dozen references to peace. So the original speech had 6 references to peace as written. Trump when giving the speech changed it to one reference to protect himself.

So these people now believed the election had been stolen, that the candidate and president they loved, had the election he won stolen from him and this was their opportunity to fix that wrong.

That's why he picked the date and location of the rally. Then he repeated the lie that the election was stolen to the people there.

not counting the real Democratic electoral college votes from the swing states and into counting the fake illegitimate Republican electoral college votes from the swing states Biden won.

He picked the date and location so that the mob could assault the Capitol on January 6th and either pressure Pence and the members of Congress into

On December 19, 2020 Trump sent a tweet telling his supporters to go to DC on January 6th. He picked the Ellipse as the location for the speech, a location within easy walking distance of the Capitol.

He kept pushing his lies that the election was stolen despite all the Republicans in his campaign and in his administration and in state governments and judges who told him he lost and despite the recounts.

and pressured Pence to accept the fake Illegitimate Republican electoral college votes from those swing states.

Again, he knew he lost the election. Yet he and his allies pressured the fake illegitimate Republican electors in the six swing states Biden won to do everything the real electors do and have the fake summary of the outcome of the fake electors in those states sent to Pence

But the voters choose the president. Not any one person. Trump tried to alter who won the electoral college vote and stay in office despite losing the election.

And what if, as a result of that process, despite losing the election, Kamala Harris said she won the electoral college vote and was the next president? Would that have been cool with you? As a Democrat, that would not have been cool with me and I despise Trump.

a switch of 80 electoral college votes which could alter who won the electoral college vote, and, thus, who was the president-elect?

What if she decided to not count the legitimate Republican electoral college votes from Texas? She would have gained 40 more electoral college votes and Trump would have lost 40 electoral college votes,

make a summary record of the outcome of the Democratic electors' vote, certify that fake record, and seal it and send it to her as the vice president on January 6th at the Capitol?

was supposed to do, namely on the first Tuesday after the second Wednesday in December after the election to go to the state Capitol and vote for president,

What if Kamala Harris had told the Democratic Party's slate of electors after Trump had been confirmed to have won the popular vote in Texas to do everything the legitimate slate of electors in Texas, the Republican slate of electors,

(he also won the popular vote in Texas in 2020 but I am using this last election and Texas to explain what happened the previous election). The Democrats slate of electors for Texas in 2024 became fake and illegitimate once we knew Trump was confirmed as the winner of the popular vote in Texas.

The record was certified and it was sealed. In 2024 in Texas the Republican slate of electors was the legitimate slate of electors because Trump was the Republican Party's nominee for president and he won the popular vote in Texas in 2024