over on twitter @thetindoor.bsky.social posted this, sharing it here -- LABR/Tout 10-yr performance, in one chart. Updated through 2024 season.

Presented with minimal comment: 2024's luckiest SP Measured by BABIP, LOB%, and HR/FB. Can a pitcher control quality of contact & baserunners? Yeah, a *little*. These guys are on the extreme end. K-BB% included as short-hand for SP quality (i.e. trust results for Wheeler > Gil)

2025 Fades: Shane Baz Last year's results (3.06/1.02) look good. But...very mediocre 13% k-bb%. How? BABIP (0.229) and LOB (80%) luck, low HR allowed. One of the most injury prone SP in the league, park downgrade. Going at SP52 in NFBC drafts, one spot AHEAD of Pfaadt 🤯

The fate of humanity rests on Josh Bell & Nate Lowe 🙏

2025 Targets: Brandon Pfaadt 5.93 2nd half ERA is really keeping his price depressed (ADP: 188) Got BABIP'd (0.368) and LOB'd (0.57) to death. But he hasn't shown that to be a problem in the past. Under the hood... 2nd half: 3.49 FIP, 3.30 SIERA K-BB% up 5% 1st-->2nd Velo up a tick (1/2)

How it started