On Dec. 16, @asiapolicy.asiasociety.org's Center for China Analysis discusses the implications for China's economy in 2026, based on takeaways from the Central Economic Work Conference. With @gavekal.bsky.social's Arthur Kroeber, @hotpotwhynot.bsky.social, Wang Xiangwei, and Lizzi C. Lee.

US consumer staple stocks is one of a few potential contrarian trades for 2026. US economist Will Denyer explains five catalysts that could lead to US consumer staples outperforming in the coming year—breaking a long cycle of underperformance: research.gavekal.com/teaser/video...

2025 has been another rough year for China’s jobseekers, and the cost of this labor-market slack is borne most heavily by the young. China’s youth unemployment rate is high by the standards of many other countries, and risks dealing long-term damage to a generation of workers.

China’s renminbi lending overseas has exploded to around RMB2.5trn, about three times more than at the end of 2021. Kenya’s conversion of US$3.5bn in dollar-denominated loans to renminbi has drawn attention to such lending, but that’s only the tip of the iceberg.

After the United Nations Security Council passed a resolution on Monday endorsing Donald Trump’s 20-point peace plan for Gaza, hopes for a lasting peace remain alive—just.

China’s real GDP growth continues to outpace that of the US, but its nominal growth is weak. This means that when measured at market exchange rates, China’s economy has actually declined relative to the US since around 2022.

Initial questioning by US Supreme Court justices in a landmark trade policy case suggests that a majority believe the Trump administration unlawfully invoked emergency powers to impose broad tariffs on importers.

Amid the gloom in Europe around US tariffs, there are silver linings. A closer look at the growing web of US trade deals suggests an increase in European competitiveness against other foreign suppliers in the US market.

Gavekal co-founder Anatole Kaletsky spoke at the Citywire Wealth Manager Retreat last week about US inflation, and why the UK needs a total policy overhaul. citywire.com/wealth-manag...

As US equities continue to make new highs on hopes for a technology-driven productivity miracle, investors are both nervous and fearful of missing out.

With the Bureau of Labor Statistics temporarily dark due to the US government shutdown, investors and the Federal Reserve must rely on other employment data. Worryingly, ADP’s private payroll estimate showed its most significant contraction of this cycle. 🧵📈

As the largest country by weight in MSCI’s benchmark for emerging market equities, the movements in Chinese stocks have had a disproportionately high impact on the rest of the EM universe. However, that close relationship seems to have changed in recent years.

Chinese households are increasingly opting to eat at home. Since the reopening from the pandemic, restaurant sales have risen at a slower pace than food and cooking oil sales, a rough proxy for at-home dining. The gap continues to widen in 2025.

Donald Trump’s attempts to lean on Federal Reserve policymakers to cut US interest rates are a reminder that central bank independence is not set in stone, and that monetary policy everywhere is potentially at risk of political interference.

The White House seems set on packing the Federal Reserve with figures who will deliver easier monetary policy. As such, the lead up to this week’s policy setting meeting has seen a burst of activity involving Fed personnel.

The eurozone’s manufacturing PMI ticked above the 50 no-change mark in August, for the first time since June 2022, ending a 37-month period of continuous contraction. While one data point does not make a trend, three macro drivers now point to this dynamic continuing. 📈🧵

There are several potential drivers of China’s recent equity-market rally, ranging from optimism about artificial intelligence to a reach for yield among household and companies. But the focus of attention is on the policy campaign against “involutionary competition.”

This week, US President Donald Trump met his South Korean counterpart at the White House in a summit intended to reset the two countries’ economic relations.

China’s policymakers have rolled out stimulus measures to support consumption in the coming months, including child care subsidies, one year of free preschool, and consumer loan interest subsidies. 📈🧵

When Jerome Powell stands up on Friday to speak for the last time at the Jackson Hole symposium as Federal Reserve chair, he will have one eye on his legacy as principal defender of the Fed’s independence in troubled times. 🧵📼

When Jerome Powell speaks this Friday in Jackson Hole, investors will be looking for indications he is ready to cut rates at the September meeting. With the futures market pricing in an 85% probability of a cut, the risk is that Powell calls this into question. 📈🧵

There is a difference between the typical story told about China in the West and the reality on the ground, says Tom Miller, who just came back from a month-long visit. 📼

China’s solar-module industry faces a supply glut, with domestic production capacity more than twice the country’s combined domestic installations and exports in 2024. 🧵📈

The past week has been eventful for those preoccupied with the US economy, with fairly weak data releases and the resignation of one Federal Reserve governor. 📼🧵

The 15% tariff rate on US imports from the European Union will hit the old continent's exporting sector. But the broader economy can count on its domestic segment to mitigate the shock. 📈🧵

The NextGenerationEU initiative, the EU’s Covid-era public investment package, ends in August 2026. It has been instrumental in driving non-residential construction, yet over half the funds remain. The race is now on to utilize the remaining funds before it’s too late.

In recent days, there’s been a flurry of trade “deals” between the US and Asian countries, ahead of the August 1 deadline to avoid the Trump administration’s punitive tariffs announced six months ago.

China’s government promised more fiscal stimulus this year as well as a different type of stimulus: a shift away from previous years' heavy reliance on low-return infrastructure projects. But bond sales data show a modest shift, partly towards support for the property market and financial stability.

The housing market has been a key driver of the US economy, yet it remains mired in gloom. With homes remaining unaffordable on most historical measures, end user demand is weak. This is leading to softening construction activity, as shown by permits for new starts still falling.

The Brics group of developing economies met for their annual summit in Rio de Janeiro last Sunday with US president Donald Trump threatening an extra 10% tariff on any countries “aligning themselves with the anti-American policies of Brics.”

The US corporate credit spread has largely ignored two significant macro concerns this year: the "reciprocal" tariffs and the Israel-Iran conflict. After the April 2 US tariff announcement, the S&P 500 Vix index—measuring investors' expectations of volatility—surged to a peak of 52.3 on April 8. 📈🧵

The Trump administration is putting pressure on US allies to boost defense spending to 5% of GDP. That “global standard” comprises core military spending of 3.5% of GDP along with 1.5% of GDP worth of spending on related logistics and infrastructure.

European members of Nato have agreed to raise their defense spending to 5% of GDP. The question is whether to take this pledge seriously, or see it as a mere ruse to assuage US President Donald Trump. 🧵📼

China’s corporate margins have been contracting since 2021, and are now near the lowest level in a decade. The reason is that producer prices have been falling for three years. 🧵📈

Gavekal's Arthur Kroeber sat down with Dwarkesh Patel for an extensive chat about how China has achieved high-tech manufacturing dominance and where the leadership aims to go from here: youtu.be/qb644F-iE_s?...

US President Donald Trump has been sending confusing messages on his immigration stance. In response to protests over mass deportations, he paused raids at farms, hotels, and restaurants, before reversing that order on Tuesday. 🧵📼

Gavekal's Charles Gave was interviewed by @dagensindustri about the risks for financial markets and investors arising from the conflict between Israel and Iran: www.di.se/ditv/borskol... (interview in English)

🧵 In recent years, foreign investors have tended to sell US stocks after a decline in the US dollar. And this year, that’s not the only reason for keeping a finger near the “sell” button:

April export data showed a sharp fall-off in Chinese exports of rare earth materials and magnets, and this likely continued—if not worsened—in May as trade tensions remain (we won’t know for sure until the data lands on June 20).

US economist Will Denyer has long argued that the rollout of driverless cars has the potential to lead to important productivity gains. 🧵📼

For more than two decades, it's been easy for investors to focus on just US stocks and ignore all others. For non-US stocks, the numbers have been dismal, with greater drawdowns, more volatility and poorer performance in US$ terms. It appears this is changing.

Amid a global trade war, India gives the impression of being a port in the storm. In this interview, Udith discusses whether this is really so.

Deep within the “One Big, Beautiful Bill” that is currently making its way through the legislative process of the US Congress is a provision to tax overseas remittances. With the US economy acting as the source for nearly 20% of global remittances, the fallout from this tax will be felt abroad.

Europe’s construction sector has struggled in recent years due to cyclical weakness and the high cost of money stemming from the post-pandemic inflation outbreak.

US equities have recovered most of their losses since February, with the S&P 500 index only -3.6% away from its all-time high. That's small comfort for foreign investors, as the index is still down -10.9% from its peak in DXY US dollar terms due to the US dollar's decline.

Since mid-January, oil prices have fallen -25%, with the latest down-leg propelled by the Opec+ cartel’s decision to increase its oil production by 411,000 bpd in June. 🧵📼

New episode 🎙️of THE BIG VIEW🎧 on US-China decoupling. The focus is on collapsing bilateral trade and the possibility of a truce. But Chris Beddor of @gavekal.bsky.social explains to Una Galani why the world's two largest economies may keep pulling apart. www.reuters.com/podcasts/why...

The last few days have seen TWD surge dramatically against USD, with KRW and SGD also strengthening. Louis-Vincent Gave says this sudden shift feels like a reversal of the dynamics seen during the 1997 Asian financial crisis, which saw Asian currencies crash abruptly. 🧵

China's first economic data print for April—the manufacturing PMI—was ugly. The overall level dropped to 49.0 from 50.5, with new export orders falling below 45 for the first time since 2022's lockdown chaos, about 1 standard deviation below the average level for both indicators.

The euro has gained 5.3% against the dollar since "Liberation Day" on April 2. The move has coincided with a widening spread between the yield on US and German 10-year government bonds, suggesting that investors have sought out Europe as a safer haven than the US. 🧵📈