With a sample of ~330+ Black voters (estimated 21% of Dem primary voters w/N=1600 survey), Crockett clearly dominates among both Black men & women. A good # of Black voters (47%) still don’t know much about Talarico, but he’s gonna have to match Crockett’s fire to win them over.

This is the message RIGHT HERE! The #BlackVoterProject has tested messages about Trump as racist & anti-Black for YEARS. And, guess what, those messages work & are POWERFUL (esp w/Black people who are the targets)! So, although polls right now have small samples, no surprise at her Black voter #s.

Let’s unpack “Jasmine Crockett is abandoning her constituents”. Are you saying Jasmine Crockett should only be advocating for her Black constituents? And if so, why wasn’t there any concern for her Black constituents when Abbott/Trump disenfranchised them by erasing their district?

I don’t think this is a hard one…any Trump voters who don’t already regret their choice in 2024 are likely hard-core MAGA who are NEVER going to vote for a Democrat anyway, let alone a Black woman. That shouldn’t be the goal. The strategy EVERYWHERE should be “go hard at Trump and don’t hold back!”

The “we” is doing A LOT of work here as it’s clear *certain* groups are less ready than others (race + gender matters too). In 2022 #BlackVoterProject research found that - while gender wasn’t the most important characteristic, behind race & age - Black voters actually PREFERRED a woman candidate.

Data from the #BlkVoterProject shows the majority (56%) of Black people have an overall negative view of Trump’s immigration/deportation policy & it’s even more negative if deporting citizens (64%). Plus, Black people generally view immigrants in a positive way - especially if they’re Black!

Having already banged out 80% of #Project2025, the Heritage Foundation is already moving toward #Project2026 & (spoiler) it doesn’t get any better w/policy like: - National Voting Policy: voter ID & proof of citizenship - Federal abortion ban - Persecution of those critical of US

Black voters have her up EIGHTY-NINE TO EIGHT!!! I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again: Black voters want Black representation - especially Black reps who will stand up and fight for their community, which (right now) means fighting against Trump.

She’s SPOT ON. And, I’ve heard this time & again from Black voters over the last few years. Democratic voters want their representatives to show some guts and stand up to Trump and MAGA GOP. Plus, there needs to be no doubt at all that impeachment will be on the table in 2026-2027.

I wouldn’t be surprised if the Venn diagram of those complaining about Crockett entering the primary for TX Senate and those who were yelling for a pseudo-Dem primary when Harris became the nominee is a circle.

Here’s the deal: if you believe you beat the GOP by mobilizing low-propensity Dem voters than Crockett is clearly the candidate; if you believe you win by convincing Texans who regularly vote Republican to cross over and vote Dem in 2026, then it’s Talarico. Pick your poison…

This made me laugh out loud 😭😭😭

Dems need to figure out how to build Black voter confidence in the party AND quick. Confidence was building w/Harris but lost steam w/her loss. And, just when Dems seem to have grown a backbone w/the shutdown - something Black voters have been begging for, they now must to find another way.

Moreover, as I’ve made clear, Black people want a Black candidate. But we also asked Black people what their issues priorities are for 2028 & after (1) inflation/(2) economy, the issues are a bit different than other groups as they value: (3) Health care, (4) Civil Rights, (5) Crime, & (6) Housing.

Looking back, the #BlackVoterProject asked Black people their top issue priorities before the 2024 election…and while they emphasized the economy & healthcare, they ALSO prioritized civil rights/reproductive rights AND there were noticeable differences within the Black community itself!

All the calls to #AbolishICE aren’t looking so crazy now…

More than ironic that Latino Trump approval has plummeted in this new CNN poll - Latinos are looking more like Black voters 🤔 One thing is for certain, Black approval never increased much at all as Black people easily saw through Trump/MAGA’s thinly veiled racism from the start.

I think an unwritten story of the 2025 election results is @blkprofcct.bsky.social point that turnout among Black voters—especially engaging low propensity ones— is critical to Dem electoral success.

While ZERO percent of Black voters is crazy work (curious about the sample here) this reflects Black sentiments going all the way back to the 2020 Presidential Primary where 2/3 of Black people didn’t think Buttigieg addressed issues pertaining to the Black community well at all. Little has changed…

We’re quickly returning to an era where citizenship was equivalent to “whiteness.” And, even then, it will be depend on the perception of those in power as the SC already has precedent ruling Asian Indians ineligible for citizenship despite their Caucasian ancestry bc they didn’t fit perceptions.

I still believe the talk of “Trump fatigue” was total bs & against actual research - esp for Black voters. Biden/Harris campaign should’ve hammered home the threat Trump represented non-stop. Black turnout may have been different. I’m NOT talking about the ambiguous “threat to democracy” rhetoric…

“I will not be complicit in so grave an attack on our system of law, I dissent.” Pretty sure I’ll be teaching Sotomayor’s words for the next few decades…

So, to rehash the last 2 months: - No Kings protest - Assassination of sitting state Senator & husband - Attempted assassination of state Senator & wife - Military style Trump parade - LA & NY fighting ICE - National guard & marines deployed - Bomb Iran Yeah, SCOTUS saw an opportunity & took it.

For anyone wondering how to close the gap…get young Black voters (esp men) out to vote at much higher rates (which will take a ton of time & $ that’s hard to find when mobilizing Black voters). Hard to convince older gen to listen to young folks if they think they’re not voting in the first place.

Here's a great source for data & analysis of black voters powered by my brilliant brother from another mother Dr. Chris Towler @blkprofcct.bsky.social Black Voter Project blackvoterproject.com

At #EPSA2025 in Madrid, the Journal of Race, Ethnicity, and Politics Editor Benjamin Gonzalez O’Brien (@drgob.bsky.social‬) will be available to discuss submitting your paper to JREP. Find out more - cup.org/43y635Y When: Friday June 27 2025, 2pm - 3:30pm #JREP10 cc @blkprofcct.bsky.social

PASS IT ON: If you are National Guard or Active Duty military and you are being ordered to violate the constitutional rights of US citizens then this is the number to the GI Rights Hotline. There is support. You don’t have to go through with it. 877-447-4487

This even goes for white Dems. Although they’re more liberal on a few issues, like immigration, Black Dems consistently prioritize issues of social progress much more than white Dems (i.e. race issues, crime, educ...) & often hold the MOST progressive attitudes on equality/equity in the U.S.

Just another example of Black accomplishments being rebranded as something new & ingenious when white people do it…

When #BlackVoterProject asked Black people who they want to as future Dem candidates they are ready & willing to get behind young, bright Black politicians. The blueprint is there for Dems to win elections where Black people can make a difference, they just need to elevate their bright young talent.

It’s CRAZY to me how its’s clear that Dems really need to talk to young Black men…but there’s NOTHING in this analysis that actually gives them a voice or speaks directly to them. We need studies specifically focused on Black men - ideally by Black researchers - to really make any inroads here.

Wanna know how to depress Black political enthusiasm even further? This is it… As expected, 11% of Black people rated Trump highly favorable in a post-election #BlackVoterProject. When asked about Musk, he received the EXACT SAME amount of support (or lack thereof) - only 11% rated him fav as well.

A cynical person might say that this Admin is intentionally discouraging people to show up to their check-in appointments as it creates a larger pool of people flagged for immediate deportation down the road, justifying even more extreme action…

It’s important to note that, although Black people consider reparations important, they’re less fav than other policies, like voting rights & police reform. When asked, many don’t believe reparations will happen in their lifetime - but that view could change if policies like Nichols’ prevail.

The Trump Admin wants to put as much pressure on Sanctuary cities/states as possible, forcing them to make a decision about whether or not they will actually stand down…or help ICE efforts. If they resist, it gives even more reason to stop fed aid (plus the more militarization the better for Trump).

Hiring immediately in the Sacramento area. Great benefits & even better people!!! referrals.sevitahealth.com/newreferral/...

Nothing too surprising in the new Cook report: Why Harris Lost. What continues to stand out for me far more than any shifts in Black support, is the # of low-propensity & new voters that Dems failed to turnout. (I’m sure the #s for Black voters are even worse…) www.cookpolitical.com/analysis/nat...

I think this confirms @blkprofcct.bsky.social point about Black turnout being a key determinant of the 2024 election. Dems bet wrong that January 6 would lead to an uptick of centrist White voters, and that did not materialize.

I remember back in July/August 2024 @blkprofcct.bsky.social beating the drum that Harris campaign and supporters needed to focus more on Black voter turnout There’s no Democratic Party w/o Black voter turnout

BREAKING: The Episcopal Church has announced it will end its decades-old partnership with the government to resettle refugees, citing moral opposition to resettling white Afrikaners from South Africa who have been classified as refugees by the Trump admin. religionnews.com/2025/05/12/e...

As a reminder, if you want to know what Black Americans really think about politics & society, the #BlackVoterProject surveys include years of data with nationally representative Black samples of over 2,000 individuals, some even surveying the same people over time. 👉🏽 blackvoterproject.com

This is EXACTLY what I’m talking about 👇🏽👇🏽👇🏽

As education continues to crumble, remember anti-intellectualism is a fundamental aspect of far-right movements as they need to convince people (through conspiracy) that the reality they live in is something created to destroy them (rather than a changing world), then offer an imaginary alternative.

So since this shit still gets attention…If we’re talking about a representative 1,000 sample, that’s a useless ~120 Black people TOTAL. Meaning, we’re drawing conclusions from the answers of roughly 25 Black people who are likely wealthier, more conservative outliers (not to mention the +/-10% MoE).

Dear White Women, Are you ready to FULL-ON Karen ICE agents in your community? DEMAND to see the manager? DEMAND to see the warrant? Ask them if they know WHO they’re talking to? FILM it all? No. Really. Are you ready to do this? Our job is to spend our privilege - EVERYWHERE it is useful.

Anyone who says sexism didn’t play a central role in this past election is in complete & utter denial. (And btw social scientists could make a very strong scientific case about the role of sexism in the 2024 election, we just haven’t had anyone do it yet)

It’s annoying how little is said about the way Harris dramatically pulled the Democratic Party out of a historic landslide lost. Even among Black voters, who are ALWAYS the Democrats most ardent supporters, Harris led to major gains in BOTH support & turnout across EVERY SINGLE demographic group.

To me, if white supremacists have to bury the achievements and accomplishments of non-white (especially Black) people, it’s a pretty clear indication they know they’re not supreme.

MAGA arguing that the amount of brown immigrants coming to the U.S. constitutes an invasion while, at the same time, making plans to bring in new white immigrants sounds about right…

For most states, the Real ID is something you’d have to know to opt into & it costs more than a regular state ID or drivers license, not an automatic DMV upgrade you just received. Watch this quickly become a poll tax when Real IDs are required to vote under Trump’s national voters ID law…