Early voting in the 5 South Texas Border counties from Webb County (Laredo) down to Cameron County (Brownsville): Democrats outvoted Republicans 103,000 to 25,000 This can be taken as a clear sign that these people are pissed off Vote count h/t Scott Braddock

"actually, gas prices aren't even that important" MAGA this week. Watch.

One of my absolute favorite things to do when someone says "you're arguing semantics" Is to say "No, I'm arguing the meaning of words" It perfectly threads the needle of concise, smart, and reverse uno

Seems like people need a reminder of exactly how badly Trump is failing

Do you think gerrymandering is when a party doesn't receive a number of representatives proportional to their statewide vote percentage?

"Now that it no longer benefits us, we are against gerrymandering. We will now copy-paste arguments Democrats made, that we ignored and mocked, as evidence of their hypocrisy." The whole Republican Party right now

Republicans: WE'RE GONNA REQUIRE A PASSPORT OR BIRTH CERTIFICATE WITH A NAME THAT MATCHES YOUR LICENSE TO REGISTER TO VOTE Carl, forecasting Kim Jong Un type numbers for Dems under those rules:

MAGA: I can't understand Bad Bunny! Also MAGA: BAWITDABA DABANGDAKIDSPROTECTDAPEDOS @tpusaevents.bsky.social #SuperBowl

Qué lo que es el #SuperBowl con Bad Bunny y vete pal varajo

Same with libraries. Woke.

Wow that Bill Gates STD stuff is gross check this out

Conservatives for the first 200 years of the country: "Those who would give up essential Liberty, to purchase a little temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety." Conservatives now: "just carry all your papers all the time in case the federal government needs to see them for any reason."

How I teach that correlation does not equal causation

Reminder Donald Trump has 10 days to cut electricity prices by half, or else he has to admit he failed.

Yeah, I'd vote for @kenjennings.bsky.social

If the US sells Venezuelan oil then that constitutes pillage under international humanitarian law. Pillage is a war crime. Officials who authorize or facilitate such actions would therefore incur individual criminal liability under international law Thank you for your attention to this matter

My thoughts on Maduro and the attack on Venezuela: Release the Epstein Files

The year is young But this one is going to be a contender for my favorite interaction of the year. From an (alleged) MD!

Claim: "experts understand polls aren't predictions, Carl" Me: their math proves otherwise People: that doesn't count! Ok The top org in US on the topic: "most polls predicted a narrow win for Remain and thus got the outcome wrong" - f**kin silence aapor.org/archives/mod...

If only everyone else had more guns maybe we could prevent this -Actual Republican Platform

@davidleavitt.bsky.social Republicans are going after trans people, gay marriage, and birthright citizenship. Democrats are going after greedy corporations, p*dophiles, and trying to get universal healthcare But both sides, am I right?

MAGA's idea of being persecuted is being excluded from jobs they don't want and aren't qualified for They reject expertise (science, law, journalism, academia, medicine), but simultaneously demand equal authority within those fields. Read it again and tell them I said it.

This is every "debate"

Being proven wrong because you're spreading disinformation isn't "having your views censored," you participation trophy crybaby. Truth is not a Democracy and doesn't give a shit what you believe.

Top: @natesilver.skystack.xyz's first publication (that I'm aware of) that attempted to generalize poll data to win probability Bottom: Mine Whose is better and why?

The Monty Hall Problem is very hard. If you disagree, you're biased, and underestimate how much of your knowledge relies on smart people arguing with other smart people about how to solve - and teach it. realcarlallen.substack.com/p/the-monty-...

By supporting Trump, you've forefeited every right to outrage, forever. Forever. Your opinions about ethics, decorum, policy, rhetoric - don't matter anymore piggy.

Me: there is no objective definition of "sex" such that every person can be objectively placed into exactly one of exactly two categories. Elon: "sure there is... I'll just admit sex can be changed" Lol

The blue part has as many people as the green part

Trump has added 2 Trillion to the debt since January It's now over $38 Trillion. It hit $37 trillion in August.

Anti-vaxxers said "you'll see how dangerous them vaccines are. You'll see. You'll see." Well, we're seeing. We're seeing they're even more beneficial than anyone projected. "Errrrrr only old people need them" Saves lives of young people too. Enormous sample size jamanetwork.com/journals/jam...

A visual of the base rate fallacy "More hospitalizations are from vaccinated people" can be true, and also proof that vaccines are highly effective. But only if you understand basic statistical concepts.

Friendly reminder that science - specifically vaccines - is saving tens of thousands of lives in the US alone. Women's lives. Right now. This should be more prominent news, because it is both noteworthy and also pisses off the right people

Serious question for capitalists: Where do you draw the line between "price gouging" and "capitalism"? I have never heard a serious answer. Because under capitalist philosophy, there is *no such thing* as price gouging, but that feels too hard to admit I guess

Citing a “3-point lead” in a poll average is a useless piece of data because it means too many different things A 49-46 "lead" in polls is not remotely comparable to 46-43 in terms of win probability The fact that it took my book in 2024 to put this fact in writing shows how inept the field is

Do undecideds split evenly? Assuming an unconditional probability collapses a complex, conditional, uncertain world into a single number that pretends uncertainty doesn’t exist (from Talkin' Politics and Religion podcast w @coreysnathan.bsky.social) Full vid in comments @amstatnews.bsky.social

Intro into my research Given poll(s) of: A: 50 B: 30 Idk: 20 Professional orgs -a consensus of experts - would say as follows: @aapor.bsky.social: that poll is accurate if the result is 60-40 (+20) @britpollingcouncil.bsky.social: that poll is accurate if the result is 62.5-37.5 (+25) Problem?

From my chat with @coreysnathan.bsky.social on the Talkin' Politics & Religion Podcast. Relevant for my friends at @aapor.bsky.social @ropercenter.bsky.social @pewresearch.org and others Full version: www.youtube.com/watch?v=iw21... Or the audio version: bit.ly/Spotify_Carl... apple.co/4pksW50

Since Republicans love to brag about how much land area votes red, let me present something they hate: Those blue areas generate A WHOLE LOT more money than the red areas You may cope and seethe in the comments 👇

We talk about the MLB pitch-fixing scandal, how I approach sports betting and political betting, why spread is a junk metric...and how this all relates to scientific integrity youtu.be/iw21orYpCJw?...

A data scientist with a knack for sports betting and political forecasting gives us a masterclass in - what polling can and can't do, - how bad assumptions skew our democracy, - and why @realcarlallen.bsky.social thinks we need to stop blaming the camera for the race result. apple.co/4pksW50

Democrats should loudly, vocally support the $2000 stimulus. Propose it.

If you can't afford to pay your employees a living wage, you do not have a successful business

My schedule for Week 11. And yours maybe 8am: coffee ~9:15am: posts for the 9:30am game: www.threads.com/@realcarlall... 11am: Tuddy talk - mostly the 1pm games. On IG live. Here: www.instagram.com/realcarlalle... ~12:45 (up to 1pm): posts of my bets for the 1pm games

You know he's in a desperate spot because it's a full year until midterms, so when this doesn't happen, making more desperate promises closer to midterms will make him (somehow) look even weaker. Remember when he said he would cut electricity prices in half by January? How we looking?

Consensus of analysts around the world: Polls were wrong about NYC Mayoral Election. Is that right? Or do you all detect another possible explanation?

All things considered, it's kind of awesome that Republicans are loudly going on TV talking about how important it is TO FUND THE GOVERNMENT Remember, these are the people who overwhelmingly support the idea that no government is better

There is a phenomenon that is unique to MAGA. For most of US history, the political left and right had a love-hate relationship with politicians. Support the good, oppose the bad, and generally identify with the candidate or party that you tend to support most. MAGA changed that.

How accurate were the polls?! Which pollster was the most accurate so I can know which pollster will be most accurate in 2026?! This same, dumb song and dance has been going on for literally 100 years and they still haven't figured out why it's dumb 👇 realcarlallen.substack.com/p/how-accura...

Nate Silver: prediction markets are smart Carl Allen: Mamdani has a 25% chance of winning by a margin of 20-30 and also a 25% chance of winning by a margin of 24+ 👌