Consensus of analysts around the world: Polls were wrong about NYC Mayoral Election. Is that right? Or do you all detect another possible explanation?

All things considered, it's kind of awesome that Republicans are loudly going on TV talking about how important it is TO FUND THE GOVERNMENT Remember, these are the people who overwhelmingly support the idea that no government is better

There is a phenomenon that is unique to MAGA. For most of US history, the political left and right had a love-hate relationship with politicians. Support the good, oppose the bad, and generally identify with the candidate or party that you tend to support most. MAGA changed that.

How accurate were the polls?! Which pollster was the most accurate so I can know which pollster will be most accurate in 2026?! This same, dumb song and dance has been going on for literally 100 years and they still haven't figured out why it's dumb 👇 realcarlallen.substack.com/p/how-accura...

Nate Silver: prediction markets are smart Carl Allen: Mamdani has a 25% chance of winning by a margin of 20-30 and also a 25% chance of winning by a margin of 24+ 👌

An actual, published article that people read to try and understand things, in two sentences: Wrongly informs people that the "most accurate" poll can be determined by a sample size of one election Says Silver's "56%" probability for Trump was accurate...(???) This is just garbage.

If I hear another Democratic Strategist talking about appealing to the center, mainstream, "reliable voter" I'm going to lose it. Your hypothesis regarding centrism is wonderful. And Trump just whooped your asses twice with a huge contingent "unreliable" voters. Keep playing dumb games.

When someone asks me what I "do" - it's hard to answer. For work? Nothing, really. For money? I own a sports fundraising business Analyze political data Build models for sports betting Those might seem different...but the common theme: I solve complex problems by figuring out what data matters

If someone has a full-time job and receives SNAP That means your taxpayer dollars are subsidizing the company's profits

The Carlism of the day Feel free to use it, scientists and data people of the world: "It's better to stand corrected than to run stupid."

Reminder: Trump said he would cut electricity bills in half ("Five-O, fifty percent" - he was very specific) by JANUARY How are we looking? MAGA can't accomplish anything. Make them miserable @housedemocrats.bsky.social @democrats.org - talk about this DAILY! www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025...

When you reduce dimensionality for the sake of simplification, you subject your data to predictable distortions. There's nothing inherently wrong with using the Mercator projection, but if that projection leads analysts to conclude "Greenland is bigger than Australia because look at the map" ...

If the Electoral College happened to give disproportional weight to votes from black people it'd have been gone 100 years ago but since it overvalues the votes of people from white states no one cares...but we aren't ready for that conversation

Mamdani remains a sizable favorite in NYC. Forecast available on Substack. realcarlallen.substack.com/p/nyc-mayora...

Let me give @democrats.org the only line they need to combat the "third term" nonsense AND effectively trigger Trump. It requires using a phrase that triggers narcissists: 'It's not up to you"

If mass murder is a "political issue" I guess you should decide if you're pro or anti

If Borat can get this level of compromising footage, which he cut off before it went further, imagine what a skilled operative has on Trump. He thought the reporter was 15. No AI needed to make MAGA look bad.

I have a page where I write about a lot of stuff - stats and politics related I will also post my forecasts there. Here is the most recent thing I wrote. Scroll back, and find things you want to learn about. I promise you'll learn something! realcarlallen.substack.com/p/do-people-...

Pictured: @vp.govpeeps.us sticking his neck out for Trump

You all are so gullible it's precious 😂

Trying to explain the Ideal Poll concept as a teaching tool for learners, to help them understand the Simultaneous Census as the appropriate true value for any poll, to a bunch of people who think they're experts - but believe that polls are predictions of election outcomes A short thread 👇

Oh yeah, it's all coming together. An actual response I got from a peer-reviewer on my poll data work He wrote about one page of comments, a few useful notes, some requests to lighten my tone as it was "unnecessarily contemptuous" Then closed with this quote:

I'm not seeing any Republicans giving "young men" a pass when it comes to offensive Charlie Kirk jokes Only when it comes to offensive jokes about black people...Jewish people...supporting the H*locaust and H*tler... Why do you think that is?

Many students (and teachers) believe that the margin of error is an abstract concept, true "in theory" This is not the case. It is a testable and provable one. Statistics are not always intuitive, but when we can, educators must make these lessons tangible I love doing these kinds of experiments

Timely quote

Remember when war plans were texted to a reporter? In any other administration, this scandal would still be news

Based on actual events The worldwide consensus of analysts on "poll error" are very wrong. And none of them can successfully argue otherwise Coming soon to a journal near you. Happy to chat @jrssa.bsky.social @oxfordacademic.bsky.social @aaas.org @royalstatsoc.bsky.social @warwickuni.bsky.social

Do you like science? Fun fact: The consensus of experts worldwide in are wrong about the answer to this basic question. I think the fact that we're on the verge of a revolution in how polls are understood might be understated. Want to chat about it? @nprpatrick.bsky.social @jrssa.bsky.social

My wife says: "Please buy Carl's book so I don't have to hear more about undecided voters and how stupid the f**king spread is"

Here is a 52 second "statement of significance" regarding my work, published in my book, coming soon to textbooks and journals. Anything I'm wrong about here @tandfresearch.bsky.social @ropercenter.bsky.social @jrssa.bsky.social @pollsandvotes.bsky.social If not - a lot of retractions to be made!

Poll: Mansharamani: 21 (+4) Williams: 17 Hamlen: 3 Undecided: 52 Result: Williams: 36 Mansharamani: 27 (-9) Hamlen: 16 The fact that "experts" will plug this 13-point "error" into their report for primary poll accuracy shows they have NO IDEA what they're doing @aaas.org @ropercenter.bsky.social

Republicans hate immigrants more than pedophiles

I'm good at this (It's for @gelliottmorris.com )

This spicy take is still very relevant

Imagine anyone on the left getting on stage, telling Trump and Vance to "suck on my machine gun" - to cheers. Then, a few years later, say, @gavinnewsom.bsky.social invites them to the White House. Shall we test this out, @teamtrump.bsky.social? Or do you have something to say?

What do you think @aapor.bsky.social @amstatnews.bsky.social @jrssa.bsky.social @britpollingcouncil.bsky.social ? Too on the nose or shall we chat?

My first year doing political data publicly, I went hard. Not just House and Senate, but LEVERAGE of those races: A metric I co-opted from sports to incorporate BOTH win probability and impact on Congressional makeup 2024 - I was writing a book You all ready for this to return in 2026-28?

I don't care if it gets me clicks right now, this chart remains one of my absolute favorite. And I'm not just saying that because I made it By itself, it disproves a 100 year consensus for how Pre-Election polls are graded for accuracy. They all violate it. That's cool AF. Science is cool AF.

I know South Park is going hard on Trump but Family Guy is just ruthless!

The America First people who wanted to cut the debt have blown up the debt by $1 trillion in 8 months Used their own poor financial management skills as an excuse to cut cancer research and healthcare But we got billions for Israel for genocide and now Argentina for a bailout Nice

The Dictator admits that Kimmel's return was a major defeat for his authoritarian regime. It is clearly time to give him more defeats, the most defeats anyone's ever suffered. Thank you for your attention to this matter.

If they make fun of you, it's free speech, get over it snowflake. If you make fun of them, you're a POS. If you don't apologize, you're worse. And if you do apologize, it's not sincere enough. See, there's no amount of subservience that is sufficient for them. That's their goal. Do not obey.

Some people have no standards

It's a bit ironic that the "prove me wrong" guy gave us the proof we needed to show people who claim to be "free speech absolutists" aren't even free speech believers at all.

The most common constructive criticism is that I need to be gentler with my words and approach. The most common unconstructive criticism is that I'm an ahole. It reminded me of this meme Case of projection Approval from people who have been confidently wrong for a long time was never the goal.

Remember Kaepernick? Republicans created this false narrative that he was "disrespecting the flag" or "the troops" They KNOW they can't argue with what is TRUE, so they create a false story, and demand you disprove them - deflecting from what is true. Sound familiar to anything going on now?

No bailouts for broke ass farmers Get a job. Bootstraps

If you're soft on child traffickers, if you're soft on child molesters, then you're hard on little girls Which looks to check out #EpsteinFiles #EpsteinTrumpFiles #EpsteinTrumpCoverUp #Ghislaine

Honestly amazing how groundbreaking my work is Not because I'm doing anything extraordinary But because I tested a hypothesis BEFORE drawing a conclusion That "experts" would confidently make this statement without having data to support it illustrates how unqualified they are

Stupid: not realizing you have a very hypocritical double-standard Even stupider: letting them get away with it without being called out every minute @zeteo.com @walshfreedom.bsky.social @occupydemocrats.bsky.social @democrats.org