Some closing thoughts for my students this semester on LLMs and learning #rstats datavizf25.classes.andrewheiss.com/news/2025-12...

Gentle reminder that a correlation coefficient isn’t a particularly great way to quantify the effect of a dichotomous treatment. See also www.the100.ci/2025/07/28/w...

Excellent new editorial and guideline on interpreting p values and interval estimates bjsm.bmj.com/content/earl...

Are you or one of your students considering doing a Ph.D. in a social science? I've spent a lot of time talking about this w/ students & finally wrote something up. IMO, there are only 3 good reasons to do it. One of them needs to be true--otherwise, don't. medium.com/the-quantast...

A nice recent article on why you should abandon hazard ratios. #statssky #episky

See our No-Spin report on a widely-covered NBER study of Medicaid expansion. In brief: Despite the abstract's claims that expansion reduced adult mortality 2.5%, the study found much smaller effects that fell short of statistical significance in its main preregistered analysis.🧵

Starting to look like I might not be able to work at Harvard anymore due to recent funding cuts. If you know of any open statistical consulting positions that support remote work or are NYC-based, please reach out! 😅

Issues with interpreting p-values haunts even AI, which is prone to same biases as human researchers. ChatGPT, Gemini & Claude all fall prey to "dichotomania" - treating p=0.049 & p=0.051 as categorically different, and paying too much attention to significance. www.cambridge.org/core/journal...

NEW: CONSORT 2025 now published! Some notable changes: -items on analysis populations, missing data methods, and sensitivity analyses -reporting of non-adherence and concomitant care -reporting of changes to any study methods, not just outcomes -and lots of other things www.bmj.com/content/389/...

How to write a response to reviewers. www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...

Very nice explainer by @economictricks.bsky.social www.econometrics.blog/post/why-eco...

today we will all read imbens 2021 on statistical significance and p values, which is a strong contender for having the best opening paragraph of any stats paper pubs.aeaweb.org/doi/pdf/10.1...

Here's some older, related stuff (from me) aimed at political scientists. Related paper #1 "Arguing for a Negligible Effect" Journal: onlinelibrary.wiley.... PDF: www.carlislerainey.c...

"The Need for Equivalence Testing in Economics" from Jack Fitzgerald (@jackfitzgerald.bsky.social) Preprint: osf.io/preprints/met... We know that "not significant" does not imply evidence for "no effect," but I still see papers make this leap. Good to see more work making this point forcefully!

An important plea from @lizstuart.bsky.social in today's SCI-OCIS Special Webinar Series:

Good thread. I will add, another disadvantage of the current system of opacity is a great deal of interesting thought + work in referee reports is highly underutilized (never read by anyone other than author + editor)

Because I've seen the law of iterated expectations, Jensen's inequality, and the central limit theorem mentioned in the past few days, I'll migrate one of my early Twitter posts about the tools necessary to master econometrics -- which includes each of those. Here it is.

I quite like this platform, but it would be even better if we had: - bookmarks - DMs - polls

David Aldous made a similar point: www.stat.berkeley.edu/~aldous/Blog...

3. Find a mentor who supports you, but also pushes you in ways that work for you. There are many ways to be a good supervisor, and not every style works for every person. Find someone who's style works for you.

@lmiratrix.bsky.social is now on Bluesky!