World has lost 10-15m bbl/day and started war w aggregate stocks of about 10b bbl. There won't be a stockout, but as stocks are drawn down, they become more valuable and prices rise. There's a limit to how long Trump can jawbone prices down as stocks fall. www.ft.com/content/7b32...

The Energy Institute at Haas is hiring an Office Manager. If interested, go to this Berkeley jobs page. External to UC and Internal applicants have separate links. Please search for job number “86265”. More info on EI: haas.berkeley.edu/energy-insti... berkeley.us13.list-manage.com/track/click?...

The UK is taking an important step towards energy affordability that California should emulate. They are moving policy costs off of electric bills and on to the government budget. We suggested this for CA 5 years ago. haas.berkeley.edu/energy-insti... www.cornwall-insight.com/press-releas...

This, just a couple of weeks after we were told Europe is about to run out of jet fuel. It turns out that markets are pretty good at reallocating supplies to where they fetch the highest price. www.ft.com/content/ceaa...

To those who didn't like Lucas Davis's post today on consumer savings from shale gas, because it only briefly mentions that calculations exclude negative enviromental cost: Facts are the beginning (and foundation) of a useful policy discussion, not the end. energyathaas.wordpress.com/2026/05/11/h...

Hey @pacificgaselectric , why every month do I get an email saying "Your PG&E Energy Statement is Ready to View" but when I login will only show me total owed and a message that the detailed bill won't be ready until the next day? It's almost as if PG&E doesn't want me to look at my detailed bill.

Jim Sallee's EI blog about his important new paper w Koichiro Ito and Andrew Smith showing large international spillovers of fuel economy standards. Japan car makers redesigned cars for their own standards and ended up saving US buyers a lot of gasoline. energyathaas.wordpress.com/2026/05/04/m...

Can't think of a more plausible theory of why Acting US Attorney General Todd Blanche believes you need to show ID to get into a restaurant.

I agree govt buying Spirit is a bad idea. But *this* is where GOP Congress members take a stand?!? Obviously, they have a very different idea of the most egregious departures from conservative ideals. How about free speech, free trade, Fed independence? www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202...

In this week's EI blog post, Meredith Fowlie sorts out the changes being proposed as part of California's extension of its cap and trade, er, cap and invest 🙄 program, and some of the tradeoffs they highlight. energyathaas.wordpress.com/2026/04/27/a...

Excellent explainer from EIA on the gaps between spot price and front month futures price of Brent crude. Current extreme backwardation is indication of immediate disruption, but also amazing logistics of oil industry to arbitrage locational price differences. www.eia.gov/todayinenerg...

Busy week catch up. So great to have Aaron Smith at the Energy Institute, my source for all things biofuels. His blog post this week debunks claims of the sustainable aviation fuel industry group on a proposed new CA tax credit. energyathaas.wordpress.com/2026/04/20/c... www.aaronsmithagecon.com

Example of fraud in paying for demand reduction not as colorful as famous Camden Yards case, but a lot more money. Same bottom line: demand reduction is best rewarded as reduced demand not "increased supply". www.utilitydive.com/news/ferc-am... (Also see energyathaas.wordpress.com/2014/05/12/m...)

Iran's foreign minister said that the Strait of Hormuz is open, and WTI crude dropped $10/barrel to $85. Before the war it was $65. www.nytimes.com/live/2026/04...

Useful explainer of gasoline formulations sold in the US. I do wish they had set a bit more about how much more California blend gasoline costs to make. Most of the numbers I hear are in the 5-15 cent range, a small fraction of the CA price premium. www.eia.gov/todayinenerg...

Not a done deal, but I would love to see LIV golf collapse. This Saudi sportswashing deal started shortly after they murdered Jamal Khashoggi. Hope the concience-less golfers who joined get to live out their days in Saudi Arabia. www.wsj.com/sports/golf/...

Spirit may liquidate in weeks and JetBlue may file for bankruptcy in months. Stratospheric jet fuel prices are tough on the airline industry, but unlike airlines outside the US, they don't hedge fuel prices. www.travelmarketreport.com/air/articles... viewfromthewing.com/jetblue-foun...

Surprisingly strong forecast for hydropower in the West this summer from EIA, despite the warm winter, low snow, and early heatwave. www.eia.gov/todayinenerg...

In this week's EI blog, Joe Shapiro discusses his fascinating new working paper looking at how non-economists view alternative environmental policies options, and why they hate the options that economists most favor. energyathaas.wordpress.com/2026/04/13/t...

Catching up on the Energy Institute blog. Last week, Max had a classic Auffhammerish post on the private versus social cost of diesel big rigs versus electric. Combines two of Max's favorite topics: big trucks and greenhouse gases, and a dollop of humor. energyathaas.wordpress.com/2026/04/06/d...

The media have focused on disproportionate oil impact in parts of the world that "get their oil through the Strait of Hormuz". Thank you FT for highlighting efficient global arbitrage in crude. There are logistical frictions, and also people whose job is to overcome them. www.ft.com/content/c749...

I have just signed this. I hope you will consider doing so as well. docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1F...

The war with Iran has been the primary cause of California's jump in gasoline prices, but the Mystery Gasoline Surcharge has also played a role. It was up by 20 cents, $0.57 in February to $0.77 in March.

In what world is it okay for the Defense Secretary to make multi-million dollar investments in defense companies: a) Ever; b) In the run-up to starting a war in the Middle East FT has the scoop: www.ft.com/content/744e... In a functional democracy, he would offer his resignation tonight.

In today's EI blog, Andy Campbell details all of the ways that the trump administration's attempts to bolster the coal generation industry are expensive and disturbing policy. energyathaas.wordpress.com/2026/03/30/d...

Stanford has put out a great explainer website about oil markets. Every journalist covering the issue (and anyone else interested in oil markets) should read this. understand-energy.stanford.edu/news/underst...

The mystery gasoline surcharge – the difference between CA and rest of US retail price after controlling for taxes, enviro fees and higher cost of CA gas – was about $0.57 in Feb, before attack on Iran. Based on AAA info, today it's just over $1. Looks like CA price incr maybe not just crude oil.

So, trump EPA is allowing E15 for the summer. Worth rereading Aaron Smith's insights on why this is unlikely to have a noticable effect on gas prices. If someone claims a big impact, check if they are being paid by Renewable Fuels Assn. energyathaas.wordpress.com/2025/12/08/c...

In my Energy Institute blog post this week, I highlight how microeconomics is key to understanding the war's impact on the price of oil, gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, natural gas and other energy-intensive products in the US and around the world. energyathaas.wordpress.com/2026/03/23/t...

Busy wk before EI annual POWER Conf on Energy Research and Policy. Lucas Davis highlights one of the excellent conf papers in the EI blog. Loop flow issues and spillover impacts in Europe mirror problems Western US faces with congestion revenue allocation. energyathaas.wordpress.com/2026/03/16/s...

🎙️ON AIR: We're talking to @ucenergyinstitute.bsky.social faculty director @severinborenstein.bsky.social and @calmatters.org's @gauchoesque.bsky.social about the impact of the Iran war on California's oil industry and on you. ❓How have you been affected by rising gas prices? 📻Listen:

Related to Meredith's blog on Monday - and demonstrating that we don't do as much hallway chat as we should - my oped in the SF Chronicle today on San Francisco's possible purchase of PG&E's distribution system in SF to create a municipal utility. www.sfchronicle.com/opinion/open...

State judge upheld California's 2022 changes to its net metering tariff, known as NEM 3.0. Good news, though the change has actually turned out to be a very small step in addressing the state's rooftop solar cost shift. energyathaas.wordpress.com/2025/05/19/h... www.utilitydive.com/news/appeals...

I need to proofread my dictation software more carefully. Meredith Fowlie, our utility wildfire risk maven, discusses how new CA legislation that REDUCES barriers to creating a municipal utility might shift the burden of wildfire prevention and damages. energyathaas.wordpress.com/2026/03/09/t...

Meredith Fowlie, our utility wildfire risk maven, discusses how new CA legislation that produces barriers to creating a municipal utility might shift the burden of wildfire prevention and damages. energyathaas.wordpress.com/2026/03/09/t...

The prediction markets have a very different view of nearterm gasoline prices than the futures market. I haven't done the full calculation with options prices, but it looks like there is probably an arbitrage opportunity. www.natesilver.net/p/gas-prices... www.wsj.com/market-data/...

Brent crude May contract closes at $93, but July 2026 is $83, Sept 2026 contract is $73 and May 2027 is $71. Traders still seem to think war impact will mostly be in next few months. www.wsj.com/market-data/...

Disheartening to see anyone taken seriously who says US (or California) oil production protects consumers from Iran war impact. Producers argue world market sets the price. Correct! Oil price reflects value, not proximity, as recent gasoline price jumps show. www.foxnews.com/video/639043...

EIA has a very nice In-brief Analysis showing just how remarkable the nearly 2 decades of flat electricity demand have been prior to the last few years. www.eia.gov/todayinenerg...

Jim Sallee's EI blog today on how trump's misguided tariffs will bring inexpensive and impressive Chinese EV's to our neighbors. US auto policy only makes sense if climate change isn't real and EV tech progress will slow drastically. Pretty stupid bet. energyathaas.wordpress.com/2026/03/02/t...

Fascinating episode of Shift Key podcast on data centers and energy demand. Robinson Meyer interviews Peter Freed (former director of energy strategy at Meta from 2014 to 2024), who seems to be both knowledgeable and thoughtful on the subject. podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/d...

Aaron Smith's EI blog reminds us that the details matter for full impact of enviro regulation. Mandate for "sustainable" aviation fuel will cannibalize renewable diesel for ground transport. Small incremental renewable fuel use, very small enviro benefit. energyathaas.wordpress.com/2026/02/23/h...

NYT article does a good job of covering part of the story. Data centers could drive up power bills, but they could also drive them down if policymakers respond with smart requirements. www.nytimes.com/2026/02/19/c... energyathaas.wordpress.com/2025/09/29/w...

Conclusion of NY Fed economists is same as vast majority of econ research over many decades when tariffs were promoted by the left. The Econ research hasn't wavered. Hassett and other formerly conservative politicos have just found MAGA religion. www.washingtonpost.com/business/202...

Really nice quick overview of the grid scale solar market in Texas from the Dallas Fed. Recognizes the constraints of solar and also the incredibly low costs. www.dallasfed.org/research/eco...

Actually gas from Gulf Coast transshipped through Bahamas to evade self-defeating restrictions of Jones Act. CA is going to lose refineries as we ramp down gasoline. Need lower trade frictions to smooth the transition. Fed govt could make that happen, but won't. www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

What's so disturbing is not DOD & FAA got wires crossed - which could happen under any administration - but that this admin went straight to an unfounded narrative, rather than investigating what went wrong. That's how mistakes become catastrophic accidents. www.nytimes.com/2026/02/11/u...

How can anyone read this and not realize that the US president is a deranged, lying, mob boss? 🍁✊ www.bbc.com/news/article...

A must read if you follow cap and trade markets. Jim Bushnell discusses what investors know, or think they know, that is keeping CA allowance prices so low. An important puzzle given very low probability that CA emissions will drop as fast as the cap. energyathaas.wordpress.com/2026/02/09/w...

Even if "staffer" posted the racist video of the Obamas "erroneously": trump has refused to apologize or acknowledge a problem, while press secretary - idiot attack dog Karoline Leavitt - called response "fake outrage". This is the moral compass of trump and minions. www.nytimes.com/2026/02/06/u...