China understands Trump better than Washington does. Give him the red carpet, the fanfare, the strongman treatment, and suddenly “America First” turns into deal-making season. China has several cards to play.

It’s quite clear that the Iranian regime isn’t afraid of Trump’s threats. Whether it’s “bridge and power plant day” or “wiping them off the face of the Earth”, their behavior doesn’t change.

‘F around and find out’ is still the Democrats’ position on redistricting and is even more so our position after the SCOTUS ruling. Hakeem Jeffries is talking about a scenario when Illinois, Maryland, Colorado, and New York are totally blue. We could get 52 seats in California.

Banger of a Focus Group Pod with the great @jessicatarlov.bsky.social. We talk books, how to argue, and how voters feel about our political divisions. Then we meet the 32% who are still sticking with this administration. www.youtube.com/watch?v=153b...

"People are tried of feeling like garbage... Our nervous systems can't take it. It's 10 years of Trump. They've done us all damage." @sarahlongwell25.bsky.social and @jessicatarlov.bsky.social on the emotional toll of the Trump era and whether it’s possible to rebuild a shared sense of country.

“All gas, no brakes.” Most of the worst gerrymandering is not even in Democratic states—but this is getting out of hand. Texas districts stretch 300 miles. Democrats are at least putting it to voters in California and Virginia.

Congratulations, Virginia! Republicans are trying to tilt the midterm elections in their favor, but they haven’t done it yet. Thanks for showing us what it looks like to stand up for our democracy and fight back.

BIG personal news: I wrote a book! And it's good. I promise. It comes out on September 15th! So what is I DISAGREE about? It's my answer to the question I get the most: How do you do it?

Watching the victory lap on our blockade of the blockade is something to behold. We moved the goalposts, downgraded to “skinny goals,” and now Trump is packaging that as a huge win. We asked Iran for 20 years of no enrichment and they’re offering 5.

Trump saying that Iran has “no cards” is laughable - the world is hurting from their control of the Strait of Hormuz. Seems like a pretty powerful card! Inflation is up and fuel is up over 40% in just a month.

The ceasefire was a complete fiction. While the White House announced one, missiles were still flying across Israel, Iran, and Lebanon. Reality doesn’t match the headline.

Remember the ‘seditious six’? They were already hearing from members of the military who had concerns over what they’d be asked to do. Can you imagine what they’re hearing now?

What an embarrassment this man is.

I joined @jessicatarlov.bsky.social and had a blast. I hope you watch and enjoy as much as I did. www.youtube.com/watch?v=j8_z...

I’ll be honest about what I don’t know—but here’s what we do know: allies are backing away from us, Iran now holds leverage over the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices are rising, and global fallout is growing.

John Kennedy admitted that Donald Trump said he would not negotiate with Democrats to open the government. Even Ted Cruz was excited for a deal to fund DHS. But, that should not surprise many people because we know he likes to travel. Americans are suffering. It's Trump's fault.

Framing Democrats as the party motivated by revenge is laughable. Trump kicked off his 2024 campaign with “I am your retribution” and never looked back. He’s gone after political opponents like Comey, Tish James, Bolton, law firms, universities, and media that isn’t nice enough to him.

This is a mess. The goalposts around what “Operation Epic Fury” is going to accomplish are moving constantly to accommodate whoever is in front of the cameras. Trump claiming that we didn’t expect Iran to retaliate doesn’t hold up. Iran warned the UN weeks earlier, and experts flagged the risk.

It’s funny that the GOP even has to be concerned about Texas - it shouldn’t even be a consideration if they were doing a good job. The time for a “woke tweets” election is long gone. Especially when the Republican options are either corrupt and a philanderer or part of the old Republican . . .

Republicans are lying to the American people when they say the SAVE Act is a voter ID law—it’s a proof-of-citizenship requirement that would make voting harder, if not impossible, for a lot of people. Passports are expensive, documents don’t always match, and the process can be a mess (been there).

Livestream with James Talarico and Jessica Tarlov today in 9 minutes. Meet us on Substack: open.substack.com/live-stream/...?

The Strait of Hormuz crisis is not just about oil. 30% of the world’s fertilizer moves through that chokepoint and prices are already up 77%. Tankers are burning, allies want help, and China and India are cutting their own deals.

The war, which is nothing like a little excursion, hasn’t been ‘easier than expected’ as President Trump said this afternoon. Iran is exporting more oil than ever before, our Gulf allies feel blindsided, the goalposts are shifting so far there’s no talk of any of the initial goals, . . .

If Republicans are so concerned about national security, they’re welcome to make some compromises on body cams and unmasking ICE agents for starters. But don’t expect Democrats to give another 50 billion to fund the war in Iran . . . .

Republicans out there all but waving the mission accomplished banner look silly. It looks like U.S. airstrikes hit an Iranian school, killing more than 150 people, including dozens of children. Our partners in the Gulf are considering pulling back investments.

The Trump administration is scrambling to explain this war in Iran. American families calling embassies and being told no one can help. Leaders giving different explanations about why we’re involved. Something has to change in the approach if they want American support.

If Gabbard and Vance weren’t in this administration, they’d be protesting against it. Tulsi left the Democratic Party warning that Hillary would drag us into useless wars. She said Trump would run as a “peace president” and Stephen Miller had the audacity to say Kamala would take us into WW3.

Secretary Rubio finally admitted the truth: Israel decided to act and we went along with their timing. For weeks we’ve heard shifting stories about Iran, missiles, and our role. This isn’t what many voted for.

While Republicans parade around Hillary Clinton, they should remember that it was Ghislaine Maxwell who wrote to Melania Trump calling her “sweet pea.” While Democrats are content with having accountability for everyone, Republicans seem to be using the Epstein files as a political football.

Trump is in Texas today because the GOP is in trouble. Presidents don’t campaign in “safe” states unless something’s wrong. And, there's a lot wrong right now. Texans have suffered under one party rule for too long.

No one is taking away from the men’s win by pointing out that the women were treated poorly. Trump’s ‘joke’ was a relic of a sexist time past and had real impact. The men know they messed up and they’re saying as much, privately and publicly.

Americans are proud of the team bringing home the gold medal. What diminishes that moment is seeing it turned into a sideshow, with a president joking about whether to invite the women’s team and an FBI director posing with beers as though he earned a spot on the ice, all funded by taxpayers.

Why can’t Trump ever just take the win? SCOTUS threw him a life jacket and he’d rather drown in a sea of tariffs. The American people have been paying an extra 1K and are owed a refund. Throw in the abysmal Q4 GDP growth and this economy is not where the GOP needs it to be to win the midterms.

Is this what liberation day was supposed to feel like?

It’s nuts hearing Trump say more Americans are working today than in the history of our country when we just saw a million jobs revised down for 2025.

Then release all the files.

Biden would’ve been instantly impeached in a bipartisan vote if he put his face on the freakin’ Department of Justice building

U.K. action helps expose DOJ coverup: Feb 7: Bondi DOJ memo: "We did not uncover evidence that could predicate an investigation against uncharged third parties." Sept 16: Kash Patel testimony: "There is no credible information, none" that Epstein trafficked girls to other men.

Watters: I was walking in my street, a car drives by and I give him a wave. He rolls down the window and says, “F U fascist.” He doesn’t know I’m a fascist! Jessica: Yes, he does. You’re on TV.

The whole surge of ICE agents is a sham. Susan Collins just called up Noem and got her to scale back ICE’s presence because they all know how bad it looks for them and she’s in a tough race. It’s nakedly partisan.

The SAVE Act won't help America's elections. Quite the opposite. The facts: over 20 million Americans don't have access to those documents and nearly 50% of Americans don't have a passport.

You don’t get to call this “law and order” while ICE raids occur near schools and houses of worship, violates court orders, and scares parents into guarding school doors. Even Republicans are saying it’s unacceptable. Enforce the law—but due process matters, and chaos doesn’t make us safer.

Tom Homan on the ground in MN is a real shift. He sold Noem and Bovino out and if I were being glass half full, could say that he recognizes how badly things were going. It’s not perfect, but it’s also what we’ve got.

Since Donald Trump "took down the temperature," nothing has changed except Greg Bovino is out of Minneapolis. Americans aren’t going to move past what happened to Renee Good and Alex Pretti no matter how much they try to change the conversation.

Kyle Rittenhouse was a hero to the right, but Pretti was a “domestic terrorist” for having a legal gun. The double standard with some on the right is astonishing. Alex Pretti’s murder will go down in history as a turning point in this Administration.

@profgalloway.com and I got together to reflect on yet another murder of an American at the hands of federal law enforcement in Minneapolis. Absolutely tragic. RIP Alex Pretti youtu.be/N7RfB1dVxuA?...

A video of Alex Pretti reading out the final salute of an unnamed veteran he cared for until the end of his life in the ICU, posted to Facebook by his son.

The horrors ICE is engaging in isn’t fake news. Lawyers are giving very specific accounts of people following the asylum process. School staff and neighbors witnessed arrests. Even law enforcement says ICE is ignoring due process, racially profiling citizens, and holding people in awful conditions.

Thankful @whstancil.bsky.social spent some time telling me about his experience on the ground in Minneapolis. Horrifying on every level. Appreciate that he's tracking these monsters. Here's our conversation: www.youtube.com/watch?v=UeOl...

The Epstein files continue to plague the Trump Administration. It’s now been more than one month since the DOJ was required to release the files. I am joined by Heather Cox Richardson to talk about how this really impacts Trump in 2026: