Some more thoughts on the mess that is the Maine Senate race. Listen to it all, but want to underscore that Republicans don’t get to take a moral victory lap here. They’re still the party of Trump.

4th of July was supposed to be a nonpartisan event celebrating America. Parts of it was. Trump taking America250 and pushing it aside, however, was anything but.

Want to know what dilutes patriotism? A system that’s rigged against the American. And who can fault Americans for looking at a president flying around in a $400 million Qatari jet or making $2.2 billion in his first year in office and thinking ‘hey this place doesn’t actually seem all that fair.’

Justice Brown Jackson's argument for birthright citizenship is very moving. I recommend reading it in full. An excerpt with alt-text below. “The Reconstruction Amendments were an anticaste, antisubordination reset for the Nation, not a mere spot treatment for the dark stain of slavery.” — KBJ

Exciting book news! I Disagree is on sale for 25% off until the end of the day today for all Barnes & Noble rewards and premium members. Pre-order yours now! www.barnesandnoble.com/w/i-disagree...

Are the divisions in the Democratic party real? Of course. But we also heard that AOC and Ilhan Omar would destroy Democrats’ electoral chances in 2018 and we won 43 seats that year and Trump was more popular than he is now.

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NYC is deep blue, so DSA-style candidates can win here. And it was undoubtedly a great night for Mamdani. The real test, though, is whether that politics can win swing districts and help Democrats get to 218 seats.

Trump was in Pennsylvania today. Here's what voters face: • Higher costs from inflation and tariffs • Billions in lost tax revenue from mass deportations • Hundreds of thousands losing healthcare because of Medicaid cuts and reduced ACA subsidies

Is diplomacy better than nothing? Of course. But reality is Iran closes the strait when it feels like it and we just gave them a huge concession in selling their oil on the open market. Rolled back 40 years of restrictions!

The only folks who like this deal are the Iranian regime. The immediate oil sanctions relief is music to their ears with 300 billion to follow. Iran is already flexing with shutting down the strait and accepting applications for passage after the 60 days is up.

Mark your calendars. Jessica Tarlov and I will be recording a live episode of Raging Moderates on September 16 in New York City. You’ll also get a signed copy of her forthcoming book. Sign up:

Texas is still red, but running a campaign on James Talarico shares a bank account with his mom, is maybe a vegan, is maybe a little bit gay but also has a hot Latina girlfriend, isn’t really a winning message.

The race is Maine is about change — just like races all over the country. The facts are that Susan Collins votes with Trump 95% of the time, backs his judicial nominees, and then campaigns as an independent voice.

There are Democrats who have concerns about Platner, but the idea that we’ll be lectured by folks that support Donald Trump and want Texans to choose Ken Paxton is ludicrous. The man’s wife left him on biblical grounds!

Donald Trump needs a midterms deal more than a nuclear deal and whatever happens in the next few days should be understood in that context. It’s why he is about to give Iran a ton of money to save face as Trump’s approval ratings are as low as ever and our farmers are begging for fertilizer.

🔥 @jessicatarlov.bsky.social : “Abbott is talking about how a Dem could win in Texas… Trump on the campaign trail? YES PLEASE… we all know there’s a ‘B’ in ‘dumb’. He’s cratering support.” (Tyrus reacts to this truth 💣 by implying Jessica is a ‘B*tch’, then pretending he didn’t🤔)

Stop pretending this is about cracking down on fraud when Trump literally let people who stole hundreds of millions in Medicare and Medicaid money walk free. One guy stole $1.3 billion and served 14 months of a 20-year sentence. When a reporter asked the DOJ about it, they refused to answer.

The MAGA victory lap on getting Massie out when they had to spend 35 million and won by 10 in a Trump 35 district seems misguided.  Trump has a 34% approval rating. He’s -18 with Independents and Democrats are up 11 for the midterms.

The Trump administration says it is going to go after fraud. It should redirect its attention to 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue. Everything is a scam to get richer. He’s made $3 billion since coming back into office!

China understands Trump better than Washington does. Give him the red carpet, the fanfare, the strongman treatment, and suddenly “America First” turns into deal-making season. China has several cards to play.

It’s quite clear that the Iranian regime isn’t afraid of Trump’s threats. Whether it’s “bridge and power plant day” or “wiping them off the face of the Earth”, their behavior doesn’t change.

‘F around and find out’ is still the Democrats’ position on redistricting and is even more so our position after the SCOTUS ruling. Hakeem Jeffries is talking about a scenario when Illinois, Maryland, Colorado, and New York are totally blue. We could get 52 seats in California.

Banger of a Focus Group Pod with the great @jessicatarlov.bsky.social. We talk books, how to argue, and how voters feel about our political divisions. Then we meet the 32% who are still sticking with this administration. www.youtube.com/watch?v=153b...

"People are tried of feeling like garbage... Our nervous systems can't take it. It's 10 years of Trump. They've done us all damage." @sarahlongwell25.bsky.social and @jessicatarlov.bsky.social on the emotional toll of the Trump era and whether it’s possible to rebuild a shared sense of country.

“All gas, no brakes.” Most of the worst gerrymandering is not even in Democratic states—but this is getting out of hand. Texas districts stretch 300 miles. Democrats are at least putting it to voters in California and Virginia.

Congratulations, Virginia! Republicans are trying to tilt the midterm elections in their favor, but they haven’t done it yet. Thanks for showing us what it looks like to stand up for our democracy and fight back.

BIG personal news: I wrote a book! And it's good. I promise. It comes out on September 15th! So what is I DISAGREE about? It's my answer to the question I get the most: How do you do it?

Watching the victory lap on our blockade of the blockade is something to behold. We moved the goalposts, downgraded to “skinny goals,” and now Trump is packaging that as a huge win. We asked Iran for 20 years of no enrichment and they’re offering 5.

Trump saying that Iran has “no cards” is laughable - the world is hurting from their control of the Strait of Hormuz. Seems like a pretty powerful card! Inflation is up and fuel is up over 40% in just a month.

The ceasefire was a complete fiction. While the White House announced one, missiles were still flying across Israel, Iran, and Lebanon. Reality doesn’t match the headline.

Remember the ‘seditious six’? They were already hearing from members of the military who had concerns over what they’d be asked to do. Can you imagine what they’re hearing now?

What an embarrassment this man is.

I joined @jessicatarlov.bsky.social and had a blast. I hope you watch and enjoy as much as I did. www.youtube.com/watch?v=j8_z...

I’ll be honest about what I don’t know—but here’s what we do know: allies are backing away from us, Iran now holds leverage over the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices are rising, and global fallout is growing.

John Kennedy admitted that Donald Trump said he would not negotiate with Democrats to open the government. Even Ted Cruz was excited for a deal to fund DHS. But, that should not surprise many people because we know he likes to travel. Americans are suffering. It's Trump's fault.

Framing Democrats as the party motivated by revenge is laughable. Trump kicked off his 2024 campaign with “I am your retribution” and never looked back. He’s gone after political opponents like Comey, Tish James, Bolton, law firms, universities, and media that isn’t nice enough to him.

This is a mess. The goalposts around what “Operation Epic Fury” is going to accomplish are moving constantly to accommodate whoever is in front of the cameras. Trump claiming that we didn’t expect Iran to retaliate doesn’t hold up. Iran warned the UN weeks earlier, and experts flagged the risk.

It’s funny that the GOP even has to be concerned about Texas - it shouldn’t even be a consideration if they were doing a good job. The time for a “woke tweets” election is long gone. Especially when the Republican options are either corrupt and a philanderer or part of the old Republican . . .

Republicans are lying to the American people when they say the SAVE Act is a voter ID law—it’s a proof-of-citizenship requirement that would make voting harder, if not impossible, for a lot of people. Passports are expensive, documents don’t always match, and the process can be a mess (been there).

Livestream with James Talarico and Jessica Tarlov today in 9 minutes. Meet us on Substack: open.substack.com/live-stream/...?

The Strait of Hormuz crisis is not just about oil. 30% of the world’s fertilizer moves through that chokepoint and prices are already up 77%. Tankers are burning, allies want help, and China and India are cutting their own deals.

The war, which is nothing like a little excursion, hasn’t been ‘easier than expected’ as President Trump said this afternoon. Iran is exporting more oil than ever before, our Gulf allies feel blindsided, the goalposts are shifting so far there’s no talk of any of the initial goals, . . .

If Republicans are so concerned about national security, they’re welcome to make some compromises on body cams and unmasking ICE agents for starters. But don’t expect Democrats to give another 50 billion to fund the war in Iran . . . .

Republicans out there all but waving the mission accomplished banner look silly. It looks like U.S. airstrikes hit an Iranian school, killing more than 150 people, including dozens of children. Our partners in the Gulf are considering pulling back investments.

The Trump administration is scrambling to explain this war in Iran. American families calling embassies and being told no one can help. Leaders giving different explanations about why we’re involved. Something has to change in the approach if they want American support.

If Gabbard and Vance weren’t in this administration, they’d be protesting against it. Tulsi left the Democratic Party warning that Hillary would drag us into useless wars. She said Trump would run as a “peace president” and Stephen Miller had the audacity to say Kamala would take us into WW3.

Secretary Rubio finally admitted the truth: Israel decided to act and we went along with their timing. For weeks we’ve heard shifting stories about Iran, missiles, and our role. This isn’t what many voted for.

While Republicans parade around Hillary Clinton, they should remember that it was Ghislaine Maxwell who wrote to Melania Trump calling her “sweet pea.” While Democrats are content with having accountability for everyone, Republicans seem to be using the Epstein files as a political football.

Trump is in Texas today because the GOP is in trouble. Presidents don’t campaign in “safe” states unless something’s wrong. And, there's a lot wrong right now. Texans have suffered under one party rule for too long.