The idea that US big tech can keep AI all to itself and monetise it just for its own benefit was always a fantasy, as DeepSeek showed many months ago. Open source AI & Chinese AI cos. will be disruptors for sure.

Posted this chart after a "parabolic" gold move 9 months ago. #$GLD is up 48% since then. Not saying that #$SLV doesn't looks way over done short term. But as the old Wall St. saying goes "keep calling tops and you will be pushing mops".

Crypto driven by liquidity according to Richard Bernstein. If credit spreads blow out crypto gets creamed. Note the inverse relationship (RHS axis). i.e. crypto is "digital gold" is a v. bad take.

Standing ovation at Davos for a Mark Carney speech that argued the global order has fractured, not evolved. He warned that pretending the old rules still work is dangerous and called on middle powers to stop performing a comforting fiction and start acting in the world as it actually is

#$AJB AJ Bell statement below. There was £500m increase in pension withdrawals ahead of the budget compared with Q1 FY25. This is not a good look for Reeves, or stated govt. policy to boost UK retail investment.

Not sure Iceland want to be drawn into this. 😂 Geography not one of his strong points? But then what is?

A thread on why I won't be investing in either a US index tracker or World tracker fund/ETF any time soon (Warning: could be a long thread..) (1/n)

Is it just me or are we seeing repeatable patterns in Trump's modus operandi? Start the year with threats of Tariffs in a situation entirely created by him (for his & his mates own financial benefit). Create a crisis (buy into the chaos), then solve it by withdrawing said threats. Rinse & repeat 🤔

Informative thread on potential retaliation by the EU to Greenland tariff threat 👇

To "throttle exports of services such as those provided by US Big Tech companies in the EU" would cause some big market moves. But since Trump changes his mind a LOT in a short space of time, let us hope cool heads prevail for now.

A common complaint people have about Bluesky...it's too quiet. I was once told that "if you want something improved, stop waiting for others to do it and get it done yourself". With that in mind if you follow me and would like more investing content - what would you like to see in 2026?

Portfolio is up 17% in 2025 (click graphic for review) my reflections on 2025 to follow … I still need to write it! apologies for not posting it before now. Been a bit inactive on bsky recently.

X (aka Twitter) down today. Apparently due to Cloudflare outage impacting lots of web services. Internet is increasingly going down. Not a good look! Bsky might get a few more eyeballs today? 😂

The US is screwed. With an idiot like this in charge expect really bad outcomes. He will probably be fired at some point in the next few years but by then the damage will be done.

Agree 100%. Yet MSM/BBC are full of other nonsense today. 🤦‍♂️

There was a certain inevitability about this..

Hate to say it, but this latest parabolic move in the US Gold ETF $GLD looks a bit "sus" to my eye. The price action and volume looks a lot like panic buying.

Sentiment likely to do a 180 degree flip on this news if true. Intra-day US price moves maybe suggesting this. How long it will last? 🤷‍♂️

This is still true after 23 more days. Still the only game in town. A great week for gold and gold stocks. Just a bit worried that if the US stock market sell off becomes disorderly that liquidation of all assets could become a thing.

Still no reason to change my hypothesis after 2 months have elapsed. If anything it has been strengthened.

Every clever school yard bully knows that you gain bullying friends (the gang) before you bully the victim. In this case Trump is trying to bully everyone simultaneously (with tariffs). Probability of success is now low, because everyone else is the victim.

The gold trade (the metal and the miners) has been fantastic for the last 12 months, and continues to march on to new highs. Just getting a little concerned it is the only game in town right now. 🤔

Love him or loath him Trump will get his way with tariffs. OS manufacturing companies that have important US sales will have to build factories on US soil to survive. A net export of jobs to the US from the RoW. A net cost to the RoW. You can either go down the reciprocal route or bow down.

UK market £ volume (FTSE350) massive today on OPEX second time in a month its been a ⛰️

$MAGS have been consolidating (bear flag?) for last 8 days below the 200-day SMA. Was expecting a bounce to VWAP but it has yet to happen. Again the chart is looking very heavy here. Not many good things happen below the 200d SMA.

What I like about Bluesky is the opinions you read here are completely different from those (promoted?) on X. Watching both shows how much actual manipulation of news narratives goes on. Whatever you think about Musk his ability to manipulate the news on his platform is both impressive and scary.

X has been out all day for me after being out on & off yesterday. Been quite relaxing! 🙂 Elon 👈 your fired!

Since 2021 the #Yen Carry Trade has been one of the principle drivers of the outperformance of the US stock market. It looks like that is coming to the end. The BoJ is now raising as the FED starts to go the other way. The unwinding of this trade alone could put massive pressure on US equities.

Yeah we get this in a lot of EM countries... but their main equity indicies don't usually trade at 24x p/e, they trade at single digits p/e's.

Came across this article dated May 2022 about Musk's takeover of Twitter. Did not read at the time. But 🚨🚨🚨 even then. slate.com/technology/2...

One thing I have learned about sentiment over the years of is that it behaves as an oscillator. Quickly going from bullish to bearish and back. It does not trend (like a stock price might). It might be useful for short term traders, but it is useless if you have a longer term perspective.

$TSLA car sales taking a beating (in EU in particular). Wonder how many people will have closed their Amazon account $AZMN by this time next year? 🤔

tip: if you take an x.com url and change it to xcancel.com - leaving everything after the slash intact - you can read threads logged out.

That’s this letter in the London Review of Books in 2013. www.lrb.co.uk/the-paper/v3...

A little bit of fear out there in US risk assets today. $MAGS stepping off the ledge, and $BTC looking a bit green around the gills.

@petertl.bsky.social really excellent and absorbing podcast. A must listen for all UK macro investors podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/t...

$MAGS Mag-7 ETF holding for now. Heavy volume coming in (looks like distribution). VWAP from Aug lows, Trump election & Dec FOMC meeting. Looks weak to me.

AI and the Mag 7: What will be the ROI on AI spend? Verdad's Daniel Rasmussen makes some excellent points in an article about the Mag-7. Here is DeepSeek's summary in bullet points. 😂 1/2

This is my working hypothesis on Trump & Elon as well. Elections are not part of his agenda. He is looking to dismantle the apparatus of the state and judiciary as a first step. You don't need to be Einstein to work out what comes after that!

Been quietly liquidating my US equity exposure last few weeks. Largely tackers of $SPY and $QQQ. We could go higher yet. But I think the risks are rising & risk-off often happens fast. Better risk & value opportunities in RoW.

Someone has got to say it but DOGE is effectively Trump's new Gestapo. We should all be very afraid.

Leeds becomes first Russell Group university to quit X but will stay on other platforms like Bluesky. www.researchprofessionalnews.com/rr-news-uk-u...

Big test of the FED's independence ahead. Trump will try to pump US risk assets. Will the FED show any backbone?

Old song from my youth. Seems particularly appropriate today. www.youtube.com/watch?v=ndP3...

Makes you wonder what happens to new & second hand $TSLA car prices going forward?

Ian Hislop bang on the money here about Elon Musk www.youtube.com/watch?v=diHc...

Review of 2024

Things you can't say on X anymore. 😂

Surprisingly (for me) there was not a great deal of difference whether as a UK investor you held either a Nasdaq100 or a S&P500 tracker for the year either GBP hedged or unhedged. Nasdaq was much more volatile.

Don't worry Jay a US strategic bitcoin reserve will sort it! 👊