OMG: "We fight to win!" Ok, will Iran give in then? Let’s swap the labels and do a taste test: Iran declares ongoing negotiations failed, kills the Pope in an airstrike, blows up a school full of little girls, and forgets to bring more that two carrier strike groups. Would the US give in?

Great initiative, Haakon, happy to contribute. Anyone else chipping in?

Online hate isn’t just virtual. Posts with Hindu nationalist hashtags on India’s Koo platform precede real-world attacks on Muslims & Christians. When the internet shuts down, so does the violence. Fresh research from colleague @sschutte.bsky.social et al Read more 👉 www.prio.org/news/3644

A new policy brief by Dr Ben D.E. Dando, @kjolvegeland.bsky.social, and @sschutte.bsky.social draws on insights from the Norwegian institute NORSAR’s real-time monitoring of the 2022 Ukraine conflict. europeanleadershipnetwork.org/policy-brief...

Even subtle online rumors about out-group can ⬆️ resentment & conflict-related emotions. Results from large pre-registered experiment out in @cpsjournal.bsky.social , with Mathilde B. Mjelva, @sschutte.bsky.social , Helga M. Binningsbø. @statsvitenskap.bsky.social @unioslo-svfak.bsky.social

First publication from the ODAS project (www.prio.org/projects/1955) is out! We scraped 80% of Koo (Indian Twitter clone) and find that religious references predict increases and reductions in subsequent Hindu-Muslim violence (with Daniel Karell and Ryan Barrett): academic.oup.com/pnasnexus/ad...

The “Easter Truce” that broke down quickly shows that Ukraine will need a ceasefire monitoring solution. We think we can build one (på norsk): www.dn.no/innlegg/ukra... (in English): chatgpt.com/share/68075b...

Arnaud Siad from PRIO's "Peace in a Pod" has talked to Oleksandra Matviichuk and me about how new technologies could help with ceasefire monitoring in Ukraine: www.youtube.com/watch?v=6GLg...

New collaboration with NORSAR on using remote sensing to research the war in Ukraine. We try to understand where civilians are at highest risk, how traditional event data compare to remote tech, and applications to ceasefire monitoring: www.prio.org/news/3607

One theme at EPSA '24 was experimenting on German public views to increase military support for Ukraine. As I wrote a year ago, the rank order of national preferences here is perfectly predicted by WWII experiences. So please know your bias, everyone: blogs.prio.org/2023/04/with...