Biden NEC chief and ex Fed vice chair Lael Brainard say tariff impact coming. Tariffs "They are just beginning to work their way through the pricing system." In Trump 1.0 "it took six to nine months for [China] tariffs to push prices up." www.thewirechina.com/2025/10/05/l...

I do a deep dive into the birth and death of engagement with China -- and (weirdly) the possible revival under Trump 2.0. It's the heart of my review of China scholar David Shambaugh's "Breaking the Engagement." chinabooksreview.com/2025/09/25/e...

China is heading for deflation. Somehow it thinks a political campaign focusing on something called “involution” will help stave off disaster. My latest. www.nytimes.com/2025/09/23/o...

Two National Guardsmem with M16s at the Washington DC DuPont Circle metro entrance. A local is politely engaging with them and criticizing the deployment. Most importantly, Kristy Kreme at the entrance is safe.

China reports that its GDP is growing at about 5%. Nope, says China researcher Rhodium Group. Actual GDP growth is about half that, at 2.8%. rhg.com/research/the...

Former Trump NEC Director Larry Kudlow: I always thought President Trump, was a little too personalized. A little too, ‘I can charm you into coming around to my point of view.’ There’s a place for that. But it’s just a place." www.thewirechina.com/2025/08/24/l...

Yellen as Fed Chair on China: in 2016, investors thought there was a "Shanghai Protocol" to keep US rates low if China didn't devalue. "No. We did meet, and we understood the pressures that they were under... That doesn’t require a secret handshake agreement." www.thewirechina.com/2025/07/18/j...

Yellen as Treasury Secretary on China: "Making changes [to boost consumption] would also ultimately make China less export-dependent... But in the visits that I had during the time that I was at Treasury, it became clear Xi doesn’t want to do that." www.thewirechina.com/2025/07/18/j...

Janet Yellen on Biden WH decision-making and China. "In the economic area, he had very few meetings where the president and senior officials, including cabinet members, give their views and the president asks questions.There were virtually no meetings like that." www.thewirechina.com/2025/07/18/j...

Janet Yellen on why should doesn't talk to Scott Bessent:"He has succeeded in undoing everything that was a priority of mine at Treasury." Bessent reply: "I couldn’t even tell you what Secretary Yellen’s China policy was, aside from consuming beer and mushrooms." www.thewirechina.com/2025/07/18/j...

New York Times profiles @brunodebbie as he examined the enslavers in her family and worked with Eleanor Mire, whose family was one of the enslaved. www.nytimes.com/2025/06/13/u...

I have always wondered why a certain percentage of leftists only use Apple tech yet completely ignore the multiple human rights abuses, police states, and genocidal conditions created by China. Other major tech companies diversified in recent years from China but Apple refused.

How China Captured Apple - A giant firm and a superpower have become deeply entangled. My review of a fine new book about how China and Apple truly operate. foreignpolicy.com/2025/05/23/a...

This is a fascinating story. We're reissuing The Ten Thousand Leaves: Poems from the Man'yōshū, the oldest collection of Japanese poems, translated by Ian Hideo Levy when he was 32 (and finalist of the National Book Award for Translation in 1982), in July.

The story of how Ian Levy, a suburban teenager from the D.C. area, transformed into Levy Hideo, a celebrated Tokyo novelist who lives and writes in Japanese. Even in the long history of the Jewish diaspora, Hideo's tale stands out. momentmag.com/searching-fo...

The story of how Ian Levy, a suburban teenager from the D.C. area, transformed into Levy Hideo, a celebrated Tokyo novelist who lives and writes in Japanese. Even in the long history of the Jewish diaspora, Hideo's tale stands out. momentmag.com/searching-fo...

As if US-China relations weren't already complicated, China's need to save face is crucial, and Trump's too. “To really understand what’s going to happen, you need a psychologist—not a policy analyst,” said CFR's Matthew Goodman. foreignpolicy.com/2025/05/09/c...

Hmm, so Chinese exports to the US fell by 21% because of Trump tariffs and rose 21% to SE Asia. To fill out the story, we will soon learn exports from SE Asia rose a lot too. Transshipment and investment in SE Asia is a big way China avoids Trump tariffs. www.wsj.com/economy/trad...

Great reporting on China's book scene by @rachel_cheung1. So much political and commercial pressure that older, safer books get republished rather than newer ones which could mean trouble for independent publishers. www.thewirechina.com/2025/05/04/a...

Around minute 48, former Trump U.S. Trade Rep. Lighthizer says that is a “reasonable possibility” a lower federal court will overturn Trump tariffs based on IEEPA, which requires an “emergency “ to act.Sup Ct might uphold the admin, he says. youtube.com/live/qLpUSMIN_… via @YouTube

Ex Trump NSC China chief Matt Turpin: "One of the reasons why I’ve advocated that we think of this as a cold war is that you understand what you’re trying to do is win a competition and avoid direct military conflict." www.thewirechina.com/2025/04/13/m...

A really uswful explainer about the crazy world of Trump tariffs www.nytimes.com/interactive/...

A step-by-step guide to Donald Trump’s destruction of U.S. foreign policy. foreignpolicy.com/2025/04/07/t...

China expert Elizabeth Economy: Trump’s latest tariffs “may be the final nail in the coffin of US global leadership. Our only hope is that Xi scores enough own goals to stave off a permanent shift in the world’s political and economic center of gravity.” www.thewirechina.com/2025/04/06/e...

I argue that Trump’s tariffs are unsustainable and sketch out the many ways he could back off to ease the (self-inflicted) pain. Number 1 — issue plenty of exemptions. Number 2–Fire someone. (Probably Lutnick.) Plus other moves. foreignpolicy.com/2025/04/04/t...

Trump’s tariff “plan” is imposed by a so-called emergency and doesn’t require Congress. In other words, he is ruling by emergency decree, the hallmark of authoritarian newbies. Courts could rule against him but they often defer to “national security.”

Another weird outcome from Tariff Armageddon is the remaining incentive for Chinese firms to ship to the U.S. via Mexico and Vietnam. (And Trump is supposedly a China hawk .) China tariffs are at least 54% and as much as 79% on some items — much higher than on other countries.

I bet that that levies in tariff Armegeddon days are so severe that they aren’t sustainable. (And that’s not even counting retaliatory tariffs.) A wave of inflation, slower growth, falling markets and corporate freakouts are bound to affect Trump.

Great new episode of the Chinese Whispers podcast in which @bobdavis187.bsky.social talks to the @thespectator1828.bsky.social's Cindy Yu about his new ebook Broken Engagement www.spectator.co.uk/podcast/from...

Interview with top Biden China aide Rush Doshi: "The irony is that President Trump deserves some credit for creating the bipartisan approach on China but then has never fully embraced it. I think that irony is at the heart of the second Trump term." www.thewirechina.com/2025/03/23/r...

"Trump deserves some credit for creating the bipartisan approach on China but then has never fully embraced it...That irony is at the heart of the second Trump term." @rushdoshi.bsky.social speaks to @bobdavis187.bsky.social for @thewirechina.bsky.social www.thewirechina.com/2025/03/23/r...

Intel’s surprising savior has deep China roots. It'a glass half-empty, half-full situation. His China contacts couil help commercially but hurt politically. @eliotcxchen @economicsnoah www.thewirechina.com/2025/03/21/i...

Check out new e-book by @bobdavis187 on China policy across six administrations, including an interview with me outlining the evolution of China policy with respect to labor rights. Bob's thoughtful and probing questions create a complex and engaging read.

Trump team on the prospects for a recession are starting to sound like Treasury Secretary Mellon during the Depression: “Purge the rottenness out of the system. High costs of living and high living will come down. ... enterprising people will pick up the wrecks.”

My new book, "Broken Engagement," with interviews of top China policy makers is like a conversation across administrations about engaging with China, competing with China and, more recently, defending against China. www.amazon.com/Broken-Engag...

Among the surprises in the interviews i did was the contention by ex-Defense Secretary Robert Gates that maybe Xi pushed his anti-corruption drive so hard because he feared engagement was working and party discipline was flagging. www.thewirechina.com/2025/03/14/t...

Back in 1990s I wrote whole book plus very long Atlantic cover story ( www.theatlantic.com/magazine/arc... ), advancing Adam Smith-like point that short-term "consumer welfare" is not always best guide to long-term nat'l-economic strategy. But to hear this from Trump guys, after inflation panic..

Exciting news for @thewirechina.bsky.social: our first ebook! 'Broken Engagement' by former WSJ senior editor @bobdavis187.bsky.social. It's a collection of terrific interviews with the US policy makers who have shaped China policy under 6 presidents. Enjoy! www.amazon.com/Broken-Engag...

A few words on journalism, risk and what I actually said.

gotta say, it's enjoyable watching Trump give tsuris to the right-wing Israeli government. Now we'll see if the Trump envoys are naive when it comes to Hamas (and Netanyahu). www.wsj.com/world/middle... via @WSJ

China worries the US has the upper hand in a trade war. China’s economy is weak and export-dependent. But Trump is picking fights with allies. Is that cleverly letting China stew or a morass masquerading as strategy? @Lingling_Wei @learyreports www.wsj.com/world/china/...

A trade war could stoke stagflation, warns @NickTimiraos. Also remember tariffs aren’t always inflationary. The 1930s, a period of global high tariffs, was marked by deflation. Tariffs helped prolong the Depression. www.wsj.com/economy/trad...

Look what's happening at the French Embassy in Washington DC.

Divorce used to be a cultural taboo in China. In recent years, it has become a political one, trapping women in abusive marriages. @qiliyan.bsky.social www.wsj.com/world/china/...

GOP senators fret about Navarro influence. Don’t expect the WH to shut him down. He mirrors and encourages Trump and lawmakers have shown no spine in dealing with the boss, let alone any cabinet-level official. www.wsj.com/politics/pol...

My new journalism motto: “Despite absurdities & cruelties, the world vibrates with a harrowing richness and wonder, and each of those encounters represented a bestowal of grace that we were obliged to acknowledge by weaving our images & words into stories.” —@KevinFedarko, A Walk In the Park

Trump and Musk freeze funding for National Endowment for Democracy , which funds groups that monitor labor rights and Chinese government censorship. A gift to Beijing? www.thewirechina.com/2025/02/12/d...

Very powerful, beautifully written, and worth reading. At some point Israelis will wrestle with Gaza in the same way the West still wrestles with Dresden and the Tokyo fire bombings. foreignpolicy.com/2025/02/07/p...

What a weird column by the usually lucid @wrmead. Essentially he argues US can't compete with China in green energy technology because of their smart 5-year planners. So scrap green energy. As for slowing climate change?? www.wsj.com/opinion/trum... via @WSJopinion

Greg Ip says Trump says Trump tariffs are working politically. I am skeptical. The tariffs were so badly drawn-- they would have killed US companies involved in cross-border trade-- he had to remove them when Mexico and Canada gave him anything. www.wsj.com/economy/trad... via @WSJ