Is this the breakout game for Pete Alonso? Historically against Ryne Nelson he’s had success: 4 HOME RUNS 1 Single 1 K .455 AVG 2.000 OPS In 11 ABs & 51 pitches seen Let’s see if he’ll have similar luck against him tonight. Enjoy this 113.2 mph exit velocity bomb in 2023 💨

Orioles pitching staff may be getting away with it. The O's rank 12th in MLB by ERA, looking solidly league-average. But their Pitching+ ranks 19th. That gap between what's showing up on the scoreboard and the actual quality of pitches being thrown is worth watching.

This time last week, the Orioles dropped to 3-6 and were swept badly by the Pirates. A week later, they are 8-7, tied for 1st in the AL East, and have won 5 of their last 6 games. They have also won 3 of their first 5 series in 2026. They had won ZERO of their first 5 series in 2025.

🚨 Week #2 Model Update: O’s playoff odds: +4.3% since last week Team ELO is lower than some AL wild card competitors, but BOS, TOR, and HOU odds are falling. Opportunity to close the gap even further this week vs two teams (SF and AZ) w lower ELOs. 👇 birdlandmetrics.com/articles/playoff-outlook

On the Orioles day off today, feel free to peruse our site and ask us some questions! We’ll be doing a monthly mailbag article, the first one to drop here in April. Have a question about our models, projections or site content? Don’t be shy👇 birdlandmetrics.com/#mailbag

Taylor Ward is good at hitting doubles

Adley, wow — looking good on both sides of the ball! 👏

Gunnar Henderson's Barrel% jumped from 8.5% to 17.2% and is projected 39 HRs. The only benchmark he hasn't cleared yet is xwOBA (.345 vs the .370 bar) and honestly, with barrels doubling (so far and we're still early), the results are coming. 2 of 3 projections are on track.

It took until May 9th, 2025 and 30 games for Gunnar to hit his 4th home run of the season last year. This year? Well he’s more than a month earlier than last year and it’s been 11 games. I think the power is returning, folks

Harshil, a new BM contributor wrote a great article about how best to follow our Orioles player benchmarks page this season. “If you've ever wanted a daily reason to feel something about baseball before noon, this is your tool” Read more👇 birdlandmetrics.com/articles/core-benchmarks-stat-guide

@oriolesreview.bsky.social correct again 🙃

Cowser…offspeed 🫠

🚨 First model update of '26! O's drop to ~25% playoff odds (from ~32% opening day). The series loss against TEX and gains by HOU/TEX/TOR affected the Orioles. BUT, we are 6 games in, more games will balance out predictions. And, 3 of 4 teams BAL faces the next 2 weeks have ELOs lower than the O's

Yes, great point! With no outs: .200 AVG (ranked #23 of 30) With two outs: .329 AVG (ranked #2 of 30) This doesn’t seem very sustainable to me, but hoping it’ll also balance out the other way (hit better with no outs) as the season goes on

Through 6 games the O’s bats are showing two stories: 1) They are not hitting well when bases are empty (rank #21 of 30 teams) 2) They are league BEST when at least one runner is on base (and 4th with RISP) Sample is small but the gap is 2nd largest in baseball

As of Gunnar's latest at-bat, pitchers appear to be attacking him with much more off-speed/breaking balls this year. Over 105 pitches: He's seeing only 23.8% FB, down significantly from previous yrs (45.9% to 48.5% range) Low sample size but something to watch

Here we go! Bats finally coming alive today!

Including Trevor Rogers (ERA 0.00) on this list #Birdland (also, Happy Trevor Rogers rotation day to all O's fans out there, we need a solid and long outing today)

Just two O’s players in tonight’s lineup have faced Leiter in the past: Taylor Ward: 1K, 1HR (3PA) Blaze Alexander: 2Ks, 1HBP, 1HR (4PA) Ward capitalized on a 87.2 mph slider that hung over the plate for his HR Blaze scorched a 98.3mph FF up in the zone, 105.3 mph EV (411 ft)👇

Our latest article about Shane Baz was our first published by a Birdland Metrics contributor! Our goal: make data and analysis inclusive and to build a community of Orioles fans around this idea. If you have ideas, reach out to work with us! 📧 -> [email protected]

Statcast Notes: 8-6 Win v. MIN 9 balls at 95+ MPH: O'Neill 109.0 EV (HR), Alonso 108.0, Mayo 105.2 & 100.4, Basallo 103.3, Adley 102.5. 🚀 Baz topped 99.6 MPH, cutter at 37% CSW, knuckle curve at 33%. Changeup was a non-factor (0% on 3 thrown). Fastball at 24% vs. 27% lg avg. 4 ER, 2.21 FIP.

Solid at bat by Beavers, didn’t try to do too much. 77.6 mph exit velocity but stays through it to push it into right field! Great piece of hitting!

2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 3 K Anthony Nunez with a fantastic MLB debut. This will play.

Great point, working Bradley to 30+ pitches in the first inning is good to see. But hoping the hitting with RISP starts to improve, ranked 23rd in all of majors last year

3 out of the 6 batters in the lineup today have hit a HR off of Taj Bradley: Gunnar Henderson Colton Cowser Pete Alonso But Bradley’s splitter and curve have been tough on these guys in the past Hoping for more of this from Gunnar today (111.3 mph EV, 446 ft), lol he destroyed this one in 2023 💨👇

I’m checking my sources here, and someone correct me if I’m wrong, but is Scott Erickson the only other Orioles pitcher to ever get a 5-year deal? Exciting to see this for the franchise!

Nice to see an impending long-term deal for Baz. He's one of our "core" players we’ll be following in 2026. Will he hit his benchmarks? Check his 2026 projections and see them update daily this year based on his in-season performance: birdlandmetrics.com/visualizations/core-benchmarks/shane-baz

A lot of great signs on day 1: 1) Trevor Rogers is still Trevor Rogers 2) Coby Mayo played a good third base 3) Blaze was a good offseason pickup 4) Adley had 2 hits (1 was a double) 5) Wells and Helsley successfully shut the door 6) Cowser made valuable contact on an RBI Win #1 in the books!

Orioles 2, Twins 1 is the Opening Day final. The O's are 1-0 in the Craig Albernaz era. Trevor Rogers was terrific (what else is new?). A 2-run rally in the 7th was enough offense. And new closer Ryan Helsley closed the door.

Coby Mayo is making me a believer, what a play over there at 3rd!

Happy #OpeningDay O’s fans! As of this morning, our team model has the O’s at 81W and ~32% chance of making the playoffs. BUT, by design, our early-season ELO is weighted down by last year’s record. If the O’s have a hot April, we’ll expect a big shift. birdlandmetrics.com/articles/opening-day

The only positive is that Judge has struck out 4 times and is currently 0-4. Otherwise, not good.

Let's talk about who's in the lineup tomorrow v Twins RHP Joe Ryan🧵. Who do you think should be penciled in? We parsed through the Statcast history for all O's batters that have faced him, some things to note:

With first Orioles pitch less than 24 hours away, here's where they stand after one of the league's most active offseasons. Baltimore led all of baseball with a +4.7 blended WAR gain this winter, combining what the new additions have historically produced with what projections expect going forward.

Anybody else finding these two days off before opening day a bit agonizing?

Man Ryan Helsley looked good the other day. A little wild but the fastball sat 99 and touched 101 with 20 inches of IVB. Got 7 whiffs on 15 swings and all 3 outs via strikeout. Whew.

With Kittredge, and now possibly Akin starting on the IL to start the season, I’m hoping the O’s bats can open up games early and the starting rotation can throw solid outings. The pen is a little worrisome at this point

I’m being hyperbolic, but is this the new Cowser?! He hit this blast off a lefty AND it was an 82mph curveball. Last year he hit .091 with a 47.5% whiff on curveballs. It’s been a tough spring for him, with a .214 AVG and 16 Ks on 45 PA (35.6K%). So hoping this can help him get going.

Not sure if this factored into the decision, but Kremer historically posts bad numbers in April. Fangraphs career averages: [March/April Dean] 6.24 ERA, .520 SLG [Rest of season Dean] 3.90 ERA, .394 SLG He’s been a different pitcher when the calendar turns over to May.

Considering what happened last year, having 6 quality starters ready to go Opening Day is a huge feat. Puts us in a good spot! Eflin looked great yesterday: 7Ks, 1H, 0BB, 11 whiffs over 5.1 IP …against a formidable NYY lineup. It’s promising developments here towards the end of spring training!

Ex-Orioles can't catch a break. Hoping the best for both Stowers and G-Rod.

We are less than one week away from Opening Day! Very excited to have in-season data start to feed into our models soon. Be sure to check daily changes to our AL East playoff odds, the O’s expected Ws, and player benchmarks for the 2026 season. It’s going to be a fun year! birdlandmetrics.com

Coby Mayo’s latest home run was as close as you can get to a “perfect” barrel, and becomes a hit roughly 99% of the time. In short, it was a no doubter off the bat! 110.3 mph and 26 degree launch angle is *chef’s kiss*

Gunnar is playing against a left-handed pitcher?! 🤨

Gunnar Henderson just led team USA with a .400 BA and 1.267 OPS at the #WBC. After a quieter 2025 season, we broke down every Statcast metric to figure out what was real, what the shoulder impingement explains, and what it means for 2026. birdlandmetrics.com/articles/gunnar-henderson-2026-outlook

We are shaping up to having the best possible outcome from tonight 🤞 1. Venezuela beats the US 2. Bregman goes 0-4 3. Gunnar doesn’t visit the White House 4. Gunnar had a great WBC 5. DeRosa loses the tourny to a Venezuela team with roughly half the estimated payroll of the US ($191M to $383M)

I just put down my kids for bed and turned on the game to see Bregman ground out, a solid 0-3 tonight. Had to laugh at that one.

Good to see Mayo back in the lineup today. After a rough 28.6 K% in 2025, he’s currently sitting at a 3.6 K% in Spring Training and posting a .500 batting average with 10 RBIs over 28 plate appearances. The numbers look good as we inch closer to opening day.

I’ll be throwing back an espresso shot tomorrow morning in honor of team Italy. Great run!

Yeah, wow that’s bad