Oh my god

This is crazy

Please stop saying brotherly tush push on my television

The Mets, Yankees and Cubs seem to be the Orioles biggest competition for pitching targets. Ideally one gets Cabrera, who would be redundant with Baz. Yankees also in on Peralta. Mets in on Framber and Suarez. Cubs probably in the mix as well.

OK, looks like ZiPS will be higher on Brenton Doyle than Steamer (and me).

Warming to the idea of Ranger Suarez. I’d be holding my breath that his back stays healthy and his fastball stays over 90, but he probably gives you ~3 WAR each of the next year or two and has a lot of the traits (elite command, deep arsenal, “pitchability”) that we see age gracefully.

Check the WAR projection on Okamoto vs. Santander on basically the same AAV.

Leading off for Las Águilas, YOUR Baltimore Orioles center fielder Leody Taveras

4/60 is exactly what I predicted for Okamoto. Good deal for him and a potentially good deal for Toronto if the bat translates. Not an insane ceiling but a diverse mix of skills that provides a higher floor than the other Japanese players posted this year, hence the longer deal and larger guarantee.

Yeah, I figured this would happen. He reportedly had at least one major league offer, but probably one that valued him as a reliever or at least with major reliever risk. Could try again next year but that K% isn’t going to convince many big league teams to take a chance on him as a starter.

I don’t actually think the Jays are as good as people seem to think, but they have done basically all you can ask for after coming within a coin flip of a World Series win and will be competitive in the toughest division for a while.

Pirates should go get Geno. Have to get one more bat of note.

There are a lot of MLB players and prospects from Venezuela. Been texting with people in several front offices and nobody knows how this is going to impact players and their families’ ability to get out. A total clusterfuck.

I did not mean Toronto!!!

Finished my naive projections for 2026. The top 5 hitters by wRC+: Aaron Judge 100 wRC+ Thairo Estrada 100 wRC+ Jeff McNeil 100 wRC+ Matt Olson 100 wRC+ Nick Allen 100 wRC+

If I may baseball post for a second, I think there’s a solid chance Kazuma Okamoto is a Jordan Westburg/Taylor Ward-type bat and even if his defense is below average at 3B and he splits time at the corners he’s still solid value at like 3/40 or 4/60. Great fit for the Pirates (and a few others) IMO.

I mean what the fuck

An interesting thing about Ranger Suarez over the last two years is that while he’s lost 2 ticks of velocity (alarming for an already soft tosser) he’s become an elite strike thrower with elite Location+. I wonder how much is physical decline and how much is a tradeoff for command.

📣 Slider command 📣

Love the Baz-Eflin connection. Seems like pretty much everyone who meets Eflin loves him but it’s especially nice for a younger guy with some development left to land on a team with a guy who knows and likes and trusts.

I think the Orioles rotation as it stands is a little below average by median outcome, with a significant amount of variance due to injury risk almost across the board but fairly sizeable upside due to Bradish/Rogers/Baz and even Eflin.

If you think Kona Takahashi could sit closer to 95 out of the pen (he’s 93.3 as a starter but touches upper 90s) I could see him being a successful reliever with a fastball/splitter/slider mix and hopefully an uptick in whiff and K. Not sure he’d sign for a contract that reflects that, though.

Bubic might be a worse target than Gallen.

In order of preference: 1. Framber (5 years max) 2. Trade (Peralta, Gore or similar) 3. Suarez (5 years max but ideally 4) 4. Gallen (4 years max, ideally creative contract) 5. Stand pat

This. I think it’s clear that teams didn’t like the risk profile enough to offer a long, large contract, but given his age and the opt-outs this is pretty much the next best thing. It’s better value for Imai than the Astros by giving him a solid cushion with the chance to cash in big if he’s good.

No Yankees or Mets involved and he gets a prove it deal from the Astros. Probably tells you everything you need to know about how orgs with access to much better data than any of us, and armed with teams of smart analysts, felt about the profile.

Another way to look at the Imai situation is that if you really liked him and he pitches the way you hope he will, he’ll be available in free agency next year at age 29 with fewer question marks. If he doesn’t pitch the way you hope, he won’t be available, but that’s a bullet dodged.

Who doesn't love an extra draft pick? 😎 Dylan Beavers is on track to make the Orioles eligible for a Competitive Balance or PPI pick if he ends up winning ROY. And after the way he debuted this past season, that's farm from out of the question 👀

Just woke up from a nap what the hell

I think the median projection for each of Rogers, Baz and Eflin is in the neighborhood of 140 IP/4.00 ERA, give or take 20 innings or .20 runs, which is kind of a weird thing 60% of a rotation but could be a very strong core if Bradish does what I think he can and/or they add a Valdez type.

Interested to see what Tyler Mahle got because I think he and Eflin are pretty much interchangeable as command-over-stuff righties with low velocity, decent batted ball data and durability concerns. I’m sure Mahle will get a higher guarantee and I’m not sure he’s a better bet to give you innings.

I made a damn comic book this year! If I die tomorrow at least I finished this.

We’re like 45 hours from the deadline for Imai to not just come to an agreement with a team, but take and pass a physical and sign the paperwork, and tomorrow is a federal holiday. I really thought we’d have heard about an agreement by now.

Wishing all 2025 Trevor Rogers haters a happy 2026 Tyler O’Neill and Zach Eflin

I’ve posted about some serious reservations I have about Ranger Suarez on a long-term contract, but I think something like 4/96 with a 5th year club option that vests with innings would be fine. I still think he’ll be a very good pitcher in the short term, just very scared of 5+ guaranteed years.

Old enough to remember this. I was such a huge fan as a kid that my parents cut this strip out of the Post and framed it for me. Bittersweet but at least there were so many collected editions it felt like I’d never run out of reading material.

Imai narrowing down offers?

Folks, we got one

THE BAT projections are in. On the pitching side, there aren’t many big deviations from Steamer. Generally slightly more optimistic on rate stats for Orioles starters and slightly less optimistic about innings compared to Depth Charts. www.fangraphs.com/projections?...

I might have missed this but did anyone report a health update on Albert Suarez after he signed? Is he expected to be healthy in camp?

A New Year’s prediction: Imai is not going to sign with the Orioles, and they’re also not done. 1-2 more notable moves coming in the new year plus depth.

If there’s uncertainty over Imai’s profile I could see something like 5/125 with an opt-out after 2. Allows Imai to hit free agency at 30 and, if he’s adjusted well, hit big. And Imai exercising the opt-out would reduce the the posting fee the signing team would be required to pay the Lions.

a great actor who took a cuss word and turned it into music sad day www.youtube.com/watch?v=4UXJ...

lol sure

The Orioles have signed three Top 50 free agents, including #12, and there’s a decent chance they end up with a fourth who is ranked even higher soon. The’ve also swung two trades for 2+ WAR players. Quite the departure from recent off-seasons.

I'm pretty bullish on Eflin. 5 straight years of sub-4 ERA estimators, not super durable largely due to back problems. Back surgery's not fun but there are no underlying arm issues and if the surgery clears up the problems caused by the herniated disc, I don't see why he shouldn't bounce back at 32.

"We want to win the World Series" Keep saying it.

Rooting for the Pirates here.

Not only would I do 4/120 for Framber but I’d go up to 4/140 without much hesitation. www.jotcast.com/chat/trade-r...

Had an Orioles “Heated Rivalry” post prepped but that baby’s dying in the drafts.