I'll guess Devin Williams gets 3/48, maybe with an opt-out, and Helsley 1/16 or 2/28.

Damn, he wasn't at the top of my list but he felt like a very realistic option. 1/16 would have been fine, but I'm sure he preferred to go back to Atlanta.

If Grayson makes 23 starts and throws 129 IP at anything near his career level then the Orioles lost the trade on year 1 and Elias deserves to be ridiculed.

Let's say the offense is basically set. And let's say you've got up to $80M left to spend (in 2026 dollars) on pitching. Who are you spending it on?

Swap out Mountcastle (non-tender) & sub in Alex Jackson as the backup/3rd C and this might be it. It's OK. There's a lot of upside but a lot of variance. Ward brings stability but doesn't help the defense. Young guys need to step up/bounce back. ~80M to spend on impact pitching. Gotta get it done.

This is a take I see repeated ad nauseum that I think is wrong but it's not really worth trying to right it anymore.

I think we can dispel the notion that Grayson Rodriguez's arm is hanging off. Elias stated in September and reiterated recently that Grayson is "healthy," as those things go, and expected to be in spring training. Presumably there was a physical and sharing of medicals before LAA agreed to the deal.

the problem with trying to build a team through a series of individual hyperrational decisions is that you end up with a very efficient very average team

Just a brief 18 hours ago I was crashing out over Jud Fabian not being added to the 40-man. A simpler time.

If the Orioles were set on trading Grayson for a rental OF bat, would you have preferred them to trade for Luis Robert instead? He's even more expensive with a worse bat and health issues, but he does play CF and is still very good there (when he's actually on the field).

Sign Imai (6/130 or 7/150) and trade for Sonny Gray. Short kings assemble.

Eno is really high on Imai, and his logic is sound. The FB shape is basically Joe Ryan + 1.5 MPH and he has a plus splitter at a perfect time for splitter run value in MLB. He's also got a funky backup slider like Trey Yesavage, but I'm not sure what to make of that. www.nytimes.com/athletic/681...

I would like this trade a lot better, or at least understand it a lot more, if Reid Detmers were coming back. Even if it took a mid-level prospect throw-in. It's hard to find scenarios where this makes a ton of sense as a 1:1, but there were options to build around it to mitigate risk.

From a pure production perspective, Steamer projects Ward a full win better than Bader, and basically matches Grisham’s projection, without worrying about further decline years. The ‘26 Orioles are better than they were yesterday. He’s just a less ideal match as a meh defensive corner outfielder.

Will Taylor Ward be a QO candidate? He’ll probably be coming off a 3-year WAR near 8. If he were a little younger I’d say yeah, but at 32 he’s probably limited to 2 or 3 year offers, so it’s borderline, and I’m not sure they want to risk paying him $22M in 2027 with O’Neill still on the roster.

After sleeping on it, pretty sure I dislike this for both teams

I’ve been pretty confident they only planned to add one major starter but I’m firmly in Camp 2 Starters now. A TOR type to slot in with Bradish and a “get me there” guy like Bassitt or Keller who can give quality innings and step up in case of emergency.

Woke up, remembered, got sad again.

The other question I have is why do you jump the market and make this trade on November 18? Was Ward really so attractive a target that you foreclose the possibility of signing a bat or trading for someone else later? Is this not a trade that could have waited for the winter meetings or later?

The copium take is that Elias didn’t try to bake an injury-prone starter into his rotation plans and instead moved decisively to fill a need. The target is kind of questionable, but we don’t know the whole story. Either way, this is only justifiable if they go out and get a legit #1/2 starter.

I am genuinely sad about this. Grayson was one of the only bright spots in this org’s pitching development over the last 5-10 years and despite the injuries I really felt like he’d bounce back and be an important part of a winning Orioles team. Maybe his arm is toast, I don’t know. It’s just sad.

Replace Grayson with older Grayson 🧠

You heard it here first, folks

i guess that solves Roch's "too many starters" problem

So I suppose it’s Ward in LF, Cowser in CF, O’Neill/Beavers platoon in RF, with Leody as the 4th OF.

I am confused and sad.

OK, my Jud Fabian crashout is over. I’ve processed and accepted. I’ll just be a little more nervous than usual at the end of the winter meetings.

Jud Fabian is not ready to hit big league pitching, but he brings a baseline level of speed and CF defense that makes him a solid Rule 5 target. He can bring value off the bench in specific situations while a team works on the swing behind the scenes.

Cameron Foster used a 4-pitch mix to get a nice combo of chases and whiffs (both in and out of the zone). He does get hit hard on contact and struggles at time with command/control. His fastball, which sits 95 and touches upper-90s, is his best pitch. He mixes in a cutter, slider and curve.

Did not know this bit about Anthony Núñez from BA: The 24-year-old was playing on a successor contract in 2025, so he would have qualified as a minor league free agent had Baltimore not added him to its 40-man roster.

Trimble over Fabian is a choice.

Oh

Upper-90s heat, big time strikeout ability, awful command, has not surpassed AA through age 26.

Four players accepted the $22M qualifying offer. Here were their median contract projections (c/o @jon-becker.com) Grisham: 3/54 Torres: 3/53 Woodruff: 2/40 Imanaga: 2/39

So Bieber, Woodruff and Imanaga don't make it to FA. There's a clear top 3 (Framber, Cease, Suarez), Imai as the Japanese wild card and King as the risk/reward option. No one else in free agency has an argument to be the Orioles top rotation acquisition IMO. Slim pickings on the market.

Well there's one option off the table.

Don't be surprised to see Creed Willems left unprotected. Even though some in the org like him, catchers with questionable defense and no AAA experience don't tend to make for great Rule 5 picks.

I'm guessing Pablo's gone and Ryan stays. Unless they get absolutely blown away by an offer, it just makes sense to keep their more affordable and less injured pitcher. Moving Lopez clears salary and helps them restock.

OK I'm actually getting Okamoto-pilled. Kazuma Okamoto and Alex Bregman have nearly identical PECOTA projections (116 DRC+, ~.255/.330/.430). Bregman is a much better defender at 3B but Okamoto is 2 years younger and can bounce between 3B/1B. More variance in outcomes but probably 4/80 vs. 5/160.

Passan is reporting that the Pirates were runners up on Naylor at around $80M. That is a significant offer from Pittsburgh. It also suggests to me that he wanted to go back to the Mariners and got them to add another year at a lower AAV to seal the deal.

Folks, @afkostka.bsky.social has entered the chat.

Honestly it's the only thing that disrupted my morning

The Pirates ZiPS projection broke FanGraphs, it seems.

Chattin' Orioles and baseball throughout the day in the link below if you want to join in the comments. Free agency, trades, Rule 5, qualifying offers, prospects, AFL, whatever. Let's try it out. www.oriolesreview.com/kinda-live-c...

“Mark Sanford? The long-distance trail hiking enthusiast?”

I'm calling for a total and complete shutdown of whatever this is until our country's representatives can figure out what is going on

It’s the Anthony Santander special (presumably minus the $62 million in deferrals)

Butera’s full quote on Sean Doolittle:

I swear to god I'm not mentally shifting Grayson Rodriguez into my rotation plans you are