Quick Fed Update: 2025 rate cuts: The median projection still sees 2 rate cuts by end-2025. Rising support for “no cuts”: In March 2025, 4 FOMC participants saw no cuts in 2025. In June, that number has increased to 7, showing increased caution within the committee on easing policy further.

Japan Inflation (Apr): CPI steady at 3.6% YoY; core CPI up to 3.5%. Food eased, but rice +98.4% YoY. Goods—not services—drive inflation. BoJ likely to stay cautious amid external risks. #Japan #CPI #BoJ #inflation #economy #Yen

UK data: CPI rose to 3.5% YoY (vs. 3.3% expected), led by services inflation at 5.4% YoY, up from 4.7%. With wage growth sticky at 5.4% YoY, the current release might lead to a further cautious approach by the #BoE. #UKinflation #CPI #wages #BoE #interestrates #monetarypolicy

I presented "The Flip Side of UK Monetary Policy" last week at the BoE's Watchers Conference. The main message is that the transmission mechanism of monetary policy is not mechanical, but depends on state-contingent and institutional country-specific factors. #BankofEngland 1/3

No signs of tariffs-induced price increases yet for the U.S. economy. open.substack.com/pub/gianluca...

Finally, in my own paper with @gianlucabenigno.bsky.social and @lucafornaro.bsky.social, we show that the Financial Resource Curse is not merely a theoretical possibility by presenting careful empirical evidence that it is a general phenomenon www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti... 4/n

In an AER paper w Martin Wolf (of U.St.Gallen) @gianlucabenigno.bsky.social and @lucafornaro.bsky.social show that the Financial Resource Curse has even larger negative implications when flows go to the world technological leader, I.e. the US (ungated here: www.newyorkfed.org/research/sta...) 3/n

I like that Brunnermeier and Merkel at least nod (without citation for some reason) at @gianlucabenigno.bsky.social and @lucafornaro.bsky.social ‘s work on the Financial Resource Curse (e.g crei.cat/wp-content/u...) 3/n

When tariffs become a financial shock inducing feedback loop in asset prices @gianlucabenigno.bsky.social #econsky econbrowser.com/archives/202...

My teaching notes on the new U.S. Trade regime. What are tariffs? Who pays for it? Do they increase prices? what policy actions have been adopted, their implementation and possible legal challenges. open.substack.com/pub/gianluca...

January CPI inflation release surprised on the upside. Core inflation seems to be stuck above 3% showing little progress. As trade tensions increase, goods prices will likely add to inflationary pressures rather than contribute to disinflation as in 2024. gianlucabenigno.substack.com/p/us-january...

Interest Rates Politics: can Trump Pressure the Fed? open.substack.com/pub/gianluca...

Nice article by @martinsandbu.bsky.social on Draghi's proposal. "Demand creates its own supply" this is what happens in the Keynesian growth framework (libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2019/04/the-...)

How can Central Banks manage the post-pandemic world with increased macro variability, geopolitical tensions, and shifting interest rate dynamics? Building on the BoE, I explore how scenario analysis could emerge as a new communication device for CBs. gianlucabenigno.substack.com/p/scenario-a...

@andreasbeerli.bsky.social @gianlucabenigno.bsky.social @kenzabenhima.bsky.social @fuster.bsky.social @eyquem2.bsky.social @dominic-rohner.bsky.social @marcbruetsch.bsky.social @karstenjunius.bsky.social

Today’s CPI inflation report suggests that progress towards the 2% target is slow. My interpretation is that inflation has reached a plateau, gravitating around 2.5% at the headline level and around 3% at the core CPI level. (gianlucabenigno.substack.com/p/october-24...)

The Global Financial Resource Curse is now a forthcoming paper in the American Economic Review. lnkd.in/gXEVV4ym The Global Financial Resource curse is a depressed growth outcome under financial integration, resulting in low growth, low productivity, and super-low real interest rates

Is inflation no longer a problem? While inflation in many advanced economies has moved closer to central bank targets, significant differences remain between various measures of inflation. For example, services inflation is in general higher than pre-pandemic with more variations across countries.

Does the recent interest rate cut by the Fed influence the U.S. election? In my blog, I argue that American consumers' dissatisfaction with the economic outlook is more closely tied to high prices than the control of inflation. I explore how behavioral factors might explain this connection.

The upcoming FOMC meeting is marked by significant uncertainty regarding the magnitude of the Federal Funds Rate cut. I suggest that a 50bps reduction could result from a split vote within the FOMC. (open.substack.com/pub/gianluca...)

Following yesterday's CPI report, the likelihood of a 50 basis point rate cut has decreased significantly. In the U.S. CPI report, we highlight the persistence of core inflation and core services as key factors contributing to this market adjustment. (open.substack.com/pub/gianluca...).

It's Inflation Report Day today, starting with the UK CPI report. Our supercore inflation measure has shown a marked decline, both on a m/m basis (0.3% in July, down from 0.5% in June) and on a y/y (4.8% in July, down from 5.4% in June). (gianlucabenigno.substack.com/p/uk-july-24...)

The blog post, "The Bank of Japan's Put," (gianlucabenigno.substack.com/p/the-bank…) explores the role of the Bank of Japan and the yen's reversal in understanding recent developments.

In the blog "Post-FOMC Update: The Fed and Market Shifts,"(gianlucabenigno.substack.com/p/post-fom…) I examine the differing interpretations of the labor market by the Federal Reserve and the market following the July FOMC meeting.

It was an interesting conference at the Federal Reserve Board last Tuesday and Wednesday with interesting keynotes and panel contributions by Vice-Chair Philip Jefferson, Mark Gertler, Isabel Schnabel, Silvana Tenreyro, Olivier Blanchard, and James Bullard. open.substack.com/pub/gianluca...

The Swiss National Bank has started its easing cycle. It might face a challenge in limiting the strength of the Swiss franc. I discuss the policy decision and the SNB's future challenges here open.substack.com/pub/gianluca...

In my latest post, I discuss why the U.S. economy might be running at a different speed than pre-pandemic thanks to fiscal policy. open.substack.com/pub/gianluca...

In this BIS article (bis.org/publ/qtrpdf/...) jointly with Boris Hoffman, Galo Nuno and Damiano Sandri, we discuss where the natural real interest rate is heading in the post-pandemic world. We suggest that it might be possibly higher than pre-pandemic. #interestrates #Rstar #monetarypolicy

My interview at MNI with David Robinson on how BoE hikes drive rental inflation in the UK (marketnews.com/mni-intervie...) following up on my substack blog (open.substack.com/pub/gianluca...)

"Is the Bank of England (@bankofengland) worsening inflation by raising rates? High rates may inflate rental costs, impacting service inflation. More in my blog: shorturl.at/cuIM8 #Inflation #BankOfEngland #monetarypolicy #interestrates #UKhousingmarket