Housing affordability across the nation improved by 2.3% YoY in July. Affordability improvements, however, are not uniform across the country. Check out the blog to learn more about where affordability is improving the most. blog.firstam.com/economics/af...

I spoke with Schwab Network about recent house price trends and the overall state of the new and existing home markets. Check out the segment linked below! schwabnetwork.com/video/the-bi...

Pending home sales rose 4% MoM and were up 3.8% YoY. As a forward-looking indicator, the data suggests that while buyers are re-engaging, caution remains. Improvements in mortgage rates, affordability, and inventory are helping, but not yet driving a full recovery in housing demand.

... Mark and @odetak.bsky.social compare past and present affordability - even lining up NFL divisions to see who's winning the housing game. Listen to it on your favorite podcatcher, or watch the video version right here: blog.firstam.com/reconomy-pod...

Just released Q2 2025 NMDB data reveals: - 20.4% of mortgaged homes have a rate <3% - 32.1% have a rate 3.0 - 3.99% - 17.9% have a rate 4.0 - 4.99% - 9.9% have a rate 5.0 - 5.99% - 19.7% have a rate >= 6% 80% of mortgaged homes have a rate below 6%.

Existing home sales are stuck in a slump, hovering near 4 million annually, or roughly 21% below the pre-pandemic average rate of 5.4 million. What's causing this persistent slowness?

The NFL season is back, and so is our annual housing market face-off. This year, we scanned the NFL divisions to see where first-time buyers have the best shot to move the chains toward the homeownership end zone. blog.firstam.com/economics/th...

How has the wave of new industrial supply impacted Midwestern markets, and where do the largest cities stand in the supply-demand rebalancing process ? I investigate these questions in detail in my latest X-Factor blog post, which is part one of a three-part series on Midwest industrial markets.

In June, prices declined or grew less than 1 percent annually in 27 of the 50 markets we track. While sellers may feel the pinch of waning pricing power, slower price growth—paired with rising incomes—is finally giving buyers a much-needed edge. More in the blog: blog.firstam.com/economics/af...

In this episode of The REconomy Podcast, we wrap up The REconomy Summer School series by diving into the findings of a recently published multi-part research series on the rising costs of living. Listen on your favorite podcast platform! blog.firstam.com/reconomy-pod...

In the final installment of our “cost of living” series, we explore the role of geography in housing affordability, examining how the share of cost-burdened households differ across the country. Interactive visual included in the post! blog.firstam.com/economics/ma...

We are at the beginning of a new "more normal" housing market, but this time the reasons for growth will be different. Read on to find out more! blog.firstam.com/economics/ho...

In this episode of The REconomy Podcast, we continue the Summer School series with a discussion of a possible solution to the housing affordability crisis. The episode unpacks how reviving construction of “missing middle” housing can help improve affordability. blog.firstam.com/reconomy-pod...

In the week ending July 25, 2025, the seasonally adjusted purchase index declined 5.8% from the previous week but remains 17% higher than the same week last year. However, purchase mortgage applications are still 31% below the pre-COVID average.

Pending home sales dipped 0.8% in June from the prior month and were down 2.8% YoY. As a forward-looking indicator based on contract signings, this suggests the housing market continues to hover near the bottom, showing little sign of renewed momentum heading into the second half of the year.

In this episode of The REconomy Podcast™ Summer School series we take an in-depth look at the supply side of the housing market and the challenges limiting builders’ efforts to build more homes. blog.firstam.com/reconomy-pod...

Since 2019, nearly nine in 10 newly cost-burdened homeowners have been either younger adults entering the market or seniors aging in place.

In this episode of the REconomy podcast (Summer School series!), we have an in-depth discussion of the factors that drive the decision to buy a home and what that means for today’s housing market. blog.firstam.com/reconomy-pod...

I spoke with @bloomberg.com about the state of the housing market. Check out the full segment below! www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/...

Just released Q1 2025 NMDB data reveals: - 20.7% of mortgaged homes have a rate <3% - 32.7% have a rate 3.0 - 3.99% - 17.9% have a rate 4.0 - 4.99% - 9.9% have a rate 5.0 - 5.99% - 18.8% have a rate >= 6% 81% of mortgaged homes have a rate below 6%- that's the lowest since Q1 2016.

As more Southern and Western markets see months of supply swell, we expect some continued downward pressure on prices in these areas, offering a path to improved affordability for patient buyers. More in the blog! blog.firstam.com/economics/af...

In April, the existing-home share of total sales fell to the lowest level since 2005. In this analysis, we explain why the new home market has outperformed the existing-home market, but how headwinds may slow the momentum. blog.firstam.com/economics/in...

I spoke with Reuters this morning to discuss the recent FOMC decision and what it means for the housing market. Check out the segment in the link below! www.reuters.com/video/watch/...

In this episode of The REconomy Podcast, we kick off season 2 of Summer School with an in-depth look at the foundation of housing demand – household formation. Check it out on your favorite podcast platform! blog.firstam.com/reconomy-pod...

Housing starts have plummeted to their lowest level since 2020. The MoM decline is primarily due to a decline in the volatile MF groundbreaking. SF starts were flat compared to April but down 7.3% compared to last year. A decline in SF building permits points to a weaker trend moving forward.

While today’s homeownership costs as a share of income aren’t without historical precedent, the pace and scope of recent increases suggest the dream of homeownership is becoming harder to attain and sustain. Lots more information and interactive data in the blog. blog.firstam.com/economics/un...

In this episode of The REconomy Podcast, we examine growing concerns regarding the health of the housing market, finding that distress is rising and prices are declining in some markets, but the broader fundamentals underpinning housing remain strong. blog.firstam.com/reconomy-pod...

Market divergence in house price trends is below historical averages, but the differences reinforce that affordability trends can vary significantly across markets. Read more in the blog. blog.firstam.com/economics/af...

There is a strong relationship between the median length of time that people stay in their home, known as tenure, and sales activity. Historically, the median tenure length in the U.S. has been six years, but today it’s reached a historic high of nearly nine years. blog.firstam.com/economics/pe...

In this episode of The REconomy Podcast, we commemorate National Homeownership Month with a deep dive into the state of homeownership, including how it’s measured, the demographics of homeownership and what the future holds for prospective buyers. blog.firstam.com/reconomy-pod...

Cap rates for most asset classes have stabilized, with multifamily cap rates hovering at around 5.7 percent after peaking in early 2024. While I think cap rates may trade sideways for some time for most asset classes - longer than people may be expecting - the shortage of housing...

In this episode of The REconomy Podcast from First American, we examine the wave of retailers going out of business and how their abandoned retail space may impact retail leasing dynamics across the country. Listen on your favorite podcast platform! blog.firstam.com/reconomy-pod...

Affordability discussions have typically focused on rates, income, and house prices. Nowadays, homeowners insurance premiums must also be considered. This week's analysis examines the causes of rising insurance premiums and identifies the impacted areas. blog.firstam.com/economics/so...

House prices have dipped below their respective peaks in 47 of the top 50 markets we track. Changes in house prices matter because house prices, along with mortgage rates and income, are a key component of housing affordability. More in the blog. blog.firstam.com/economics/af...

Yesterday, @odetak.bsky.social and I hosted a webinar on the challenges and opportunities that this new, although nascent, CRE cycle will pose. We always like asking a handful of questions from the audience, as it's an opportunity to get a live read of the market.

Pending home sales jumped 6.1% in March, as interest rate-sensitive buyers seized the opportunity presented by a 20 basis point dip in rates. Higher inventory levels also offered buyers more choices.

Using a vacancy rate approach, we find that the housing deficit as of the recently reported Q1 2025 data is ~943,000, down from Q4 2024 (1.05 million). The housing market remains structurally undersupplied, but this is the lowest deficit measure since Q3 2019.

Is property insurance keeping you up at night? It certainly didn't used to be this way, but the times they are a changing. In this latest episode of the Inside Look, I discuss what those changes are, and the drivers behind them. Check it out here: blog.firstam.com/commercial/t...

While not the only factor affecting market potential, the housing handcuffs [rate lock-in effect] have loosened for now. Welcome news for a housing market that has struggled to gain momentum in recent years. More in the blog. t.co/nFLpz9edA1

A slate of retail store closures have begun, and more are scheduled for this year. How will this impact the retail CRE market? The short answer is: the impact will be limited in the near-term, given the substantial undersupply of retail space and nontrivial demand on the..

Builders pull back more than expected amid rising tariff uncertainty, as housing starts slump well below consensus expectations.

A recap of mortgage applications data in the week ending April 4, 2025: The average contract interest rate for 30-year FRM decreased to 6.61% from 6.7%, to the lowest level since October. The spread between the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage and the 10-year Treasury yield increased to 248 bps.

In this X-Factor, we discuss how the short-lived consumer spending spree masks underlying weakness for retail sector. Much more information and an interactive dashboard in the blog. blog.firstam.com/cre-insights...

Home sales are slower than headline numbers may suggest, since comparing the pace of home sales today to past decades without considering growth in households is misleading. More in the blog post! blog.firstam.com/economics/to...

Just released Q4 2024 NMDB data reveals: 🔲20.9% of mortgaged homes have a rate <3% 🔲 33.2% have a rate 3.0 - 3.99% 🔲 18% have a rate 4.0 - 4.99% 🔲 9.9% have a rate 5.0 - 5.99% 🔲 18% have a rate >= 6% 82% of mortgaged homes have a rate below 6%, that's down from the peak of 92.7% in Q2 2022.

Housing affordability had a rough start to the year. However, affordability improved in February due to slower price growth, a decline in mortgage rates, and positive income growth. Inventory is expected to rise in 2025, which should continue to cool price growth and improve affordability.

How have prior recessions impacted existing home sales? A recession alone doesn't necessarily lead to a housing downturn. Lower rates brought on by recessions can, despite economic uncertainty, lower borrowing costs and make homeownership more attractive.

Rather than assuming a market crash, history suggests that lower mortgage rates could help support the housing market, just as they have in previous recessions. Be sure to read @odetak.bsky.social's full analysis here: blog.firstam.com/economics/ho...

🟢Housing starts increased to a rate of 1.501 million, above consensus expectations of 1.385 million- reversing January’s drop. There were weather-related disruptions in January. 🔴Permits decreased to a rate of 1.456 but came in slightly above consensus expectations of 1.453 million.

Commercial property insurance has gone from a necessary but manageable cost to something that is increasingly keeping owners and operators up at night. Over the last five years, insurance premiums have been driven higher by...