Interesting piece yesterday in the The Wall Street Journal by @BrianMcgill, Max Rust, and Peter Grant yesterday about office conversions. The interactive viz does a great job at laying out some of the unique challenges that these conversion projects face, and.. www.wsj.com/real-estate/...

Housing affordability is finally drifting in the right direction - slowly, but durably. The pandemic-era forces that shocked affordability (price growth and interest rate increases) have stabilized. In First American's affordability outlook for 2026, Mark Fleming discusses how...

Inflation data is starting to be released again, and yesterday we received the first Producer's Price Index (PPI) report since the government re-opened. What did we learn about construction material costs and their inflation trends?

Younger buyers are finally pulling up chairs at the homeownership table, just on a longer timeline. As we approach Thanksgiving, Sam Williamson discusses all the aspects of homeownership we have to be thankful for this season.

In the latest episode of the Inside Look, I welcomed have our very first guest, Annemarie Caruso, to talk about how Pennsylvania is turning into an up-and-coming state for data center development.

New listings are playing an increasingly important role in unlocking the housing market. Where fresh inventory normalizes, sales tend to normalize too. This is a key ingredient for any sustainable rebound.

Excited to share a byline with Julie Baird in Commercial Property Executive on how changes in interest rates impact 1031 exchanges. www.commercialsearch.com/news/balanci...

The end of the year is approaching, and while 2025 has still been a slow year for transaction volume, it’s been noticeably more active than 2024. Year-to-date through 3Q25, CRE transaction volume is up about 15 percent compared with the same period last year.

Multifamily cap rates have been frozen at 5.7% for 7 quarters, the longest stretch of no movement in 25 years. But early indicators point to a shift in 2026. 🏘️ Thread ↓ on why cap rates may finally start to slip next year. #CRE #Multifamily

“Progress without a breakout.” This, in essence, is what to expect of the housing market in 2026. In @odetak.bsky.social latest, she covers First American's housing outlook for 2026. It'll be characterized by a slow improvement in affordability via...

CRE lending activity is continuing to grow. MBA’s 3Q25 origination report shows most asset classes and lender types stepping back in, albeit from different levels of activity. By Asset Class Across asset classes, origination activity expanded broadly in the third quarter. Office lending surged...

On this special, spooky, post-Halloween edition of REconomy, Mark Fleming and @odetak.bsky.social discuss whether the housing market is haunted or just misunderstood. Join as they take a flashlight to spooky housing headlines and separate myth from market reality.

I recently had the opportunity to connect with Gordon Lamphere on his Real Finds podcast to discuss trends in Midwestern industrial markets. Among the topics we discussed: -- What markets are best positioned to handle the rebalancing that lots of new supply is causing?

Midwestern industrial markets are resetting. After years of record demand and construction, investors are finding that less might actually be more. A quick thread on why industrial investment strategies are shifting.

Despite elevated levels of distress in CRE, big banks aren't panicking over CRE. That doesn't mean the trouble is over, though. Last week, I joined Marketplace to discuss how loan maturities, rising rates, and shifting ownership could actually set up the next phase of the CRE reset.

Every time I get the chance to talk with Michael Bull on America's Commercial Real Estate show, we have a great conversation. In this episode, we talked about where in the CRE business cycle we are, and what that means both for market activity in the new year and beyond.

The Fed just cut its benchmark Fed Funds rate by 25 bps to 3.75%–4.00% and pivoted on the balance sheet. Starting December 1st, Treasury runoff will stop (those maturities will be rolled). MBS runoff will continue, with those proceeds being reinvested into Treasuries.

Despite ongoing affordability challenges, homeownership continues to be a major vehicle for wealth accumulation over time. Even homeowners who bought at the 2006 peak have built roughly $181K in equity, according to First American Data & Analytics, outpacing what renters paid over that same period.

Are we at peak CRE distress? On Ep. 127 of The REconomy Podcast, Odeta Kushi and I dig into the data: -- Office CMBS delinquencies hit a record 11.6% in August before easing ~50 bps in September. -- Multifamily distress is primarily in private label CMBS & CLOs (which are typically floating rate)

📈 Tentative good news for hopeful homebuyers: affordability in the U.S. has improved for the fifth month in a row, rising ~2.3% year-over-year in July. That improvement was driven by a combination of lower mortgage rates, slower home price growth, and rising incomes.

Industrial properties are getting bigger in most major Midwestern cities. Over the years, the delivery of large industrial properties has increased the average industrial property size in most major Midwestern cities.

Did you know that, though homes may have looked cheaper in the 80s, they were actually less affordable once you factor in interest rates and changes in income? In the latest REconomy episode...

Existing home sales are stuck in a slump, hovering near 4 million annually, or roughly 21% below the pre-pandemic average rate of 5.4 million. What's causing this persistent slowness?

How has the wave of new industrial supply impacted Midwestern markets, and where do the largest cities stand in the supply-demand rebalancing process ? I investigate these questions in detail in my latest X-Factor blog post, which is part one of a three-part series on Midwest industrial markets.

I'll be in Indianapolis next week giving three separate presentations on the CRE economy. The first will be at the Indianapolis Lant Title Association, on Monday in the morning. Registration for this event has closed, but if you are planning to go I'll see you there. There other two...

Today's job report was another anemic one. August was almost unchanged from July, and the number of job gains for June and July were revised downward, resulting in a net lower read of 21,000 jobs than previously reported. That makes a rate cut at this month's Fed meeting more likely.

Are we approaching industrial CRE’s goldilocks moment? The industrial real estate market is experiencing a rebalancing after years of pandemic-driven growth. With supply now outpacing demand, vacancy rates have risen to 7.4%, giving tenants more negotiating power.

If you're considering entering the housing market, the old adage "marry the house, date the rate" might not hold true anymore. A glance at a 40-year chart of interest rates reveals a consistent decline over four decades, culminating...

Interesting read from @Kate King at the WSJ. Even as some retailers struggle and close locations, others are not only expanding but purchasing properties. www.wsj.com/real-estate/...

Though industrial real estate typically retains solid long-term fundamentals, many companies are nevertheless consolidating leases to cut costs. Several industrial Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) remarked in their second quarter earnings calls...

The market has reacted jubilantly to Powell's comments at Jackson Hole today. Powell mentioned that the balance of risks between inflation and employment "appears to be shifting", suggesting that conditions "may warrant" interest rate cuts.

Existing-home sales remain sluggish despite rising inventory — but not all listings are created equal. @odetak.bsky.social's latest piece reveals that it's **new listings** - not just overall inventory - that fuel sales activity.

Bank lending to CRE is picking up speed, but off of a low level. In the second quarter, bank origination activity increased by 107 percent annually, higher than any other lender type.

Remember allllll the way back in January when DeepSeek was going to destroy demand for data centers? The idea was that a more efficient model requiring less computing power to train would lead to decreased demand for data center space. That thesis is definitely *not* playing out so far.

In 2025, retail store closures have increased significantly compared to 2024. Earlier concerns suggested this might negatively impact the retail commercial real estate (CRE) market. However, in April, I argued (link below) that ...

The Producer's Price Index (PPI) from this morning shows that construction inflation is reaccelerating. Much of the PPI commentary has so far focused on the overall price level and whether rising producer prices (at least in part from tariffs) are being passed on to consumers yet.

How is housing affordability trending in different parts of the country? In the final piece in First American's cost-of-living series, Sam Williamson discusses which markets across the country are more or less affordable. blog.firstam.com/economics/ma...

I've just spent a wonderful time on family leave welcoming my first kid into the world. It was irreplaceable time that I'm grateful to have had. Obligatory baby photo is below. But now I'm back in action!

I'm a dad! Welcome to the world Arlo Robert Snyder, our first child, born last weekend. We're so excited to have him join us in the world and show him all there is to see. I'm now on paternity leave and will be back in 3 months. So, if I'm posting less regularly to social media for a while...

The The Wall Street Journal wrote an interesting piece earlier this week (link in comments) on the outlook of retail CRE for the rest of the year that's worth a read. In it, Kate King suggests that the retail market is running out of steam...

Cap rates for most asset classes have stabilized, with multifamily cap rates hovering at around 5.7 percent after peaking in early 2024. While I think cap rates may trade sideways for some time for most asset classes - longer than people may be expecting - the shortage of housing...

At its meeting this week, the Federal Reserve (Fed) kept its benchmark Federal Funds rate at its current window between 4.25 and 4.50 percent, as was widely expected. The Fed also maintained their existing rate of Treasury Bond and Mortgage Backed Securities roll-offs.

A wave of new apartments are being delivered to market right now across the country. While certain markets will face oversupply - especially in the near term, as supply outpaces demand - on a national level we're still meaningfully undersupplied with respect to housing.

In February, mortgage rates fell and affordability improved by 1.6% compared to January. Compared to a year ago, affordability improved by a modest 0.6%. Though prices have retreated from peaks in some markets where inventory has surged, much of the price growth...

Yesterday, @odetak.bsky.social and I hosted a webinar on the challenges and opportunities that this new, although nascent, CRE cycle will pose. We always like asking a handful of questions from the audience, as it's an opportunity to get a live read of the market.

Is property insurance keeping you up at night? It certainly didn't used to be this way, but the times they are a changing. In this latest episode of the Inside Look, I discuss what those changes are, and the drivers behind them. Check it out here: blog.firstam.com/commercial/t...

A slate of retail store closures have begun, and more are scheduled for this year. How will this impact the retail CRE market? The short answer is: the impact will be limited in the near-term, given the substantial undersupply of retail space and nontrivial demand on the..

The retail sales report from this morning showed headline retail sales continued to grow in both nominal and real terms. In real terms, retail sales grew in March for the sixth consecutive month in a row, a break from a trend of the prior two and a half years.

The release of today's Producer's Price Index (PPI) showed that inputs to construction material costs (ITC) are continuing to grow slowly, at least on an annual basis. ITC for both multifamily and nonresidential properties grew by 1.1% in March on an annual basis, continuing...

In the latest episode of the REconomy podcast, Mark and I discuss the drivers of higher property insurance premiums (it's not just more severe weather events, though that is part of it), and how owners are adapting to the new higher-cost environment.