NEW: The Kremlin is attempting to use all available informational avenues to convince the US, Europe, and Ukraine to acquiesce to the Kremlin’s demands by convincing them that a Russian victory in Ukraine is certain when it is anything but. More in tonight's assessment: isw.pub/UkrWar102025

US Withdrawal from Iraq: Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammad Shia al Sudani said on Oct. 20 that 250 to 350 US “military advisers and support personnel” will remain at Ain al Asad Airbase in Anbar Province, Iraq, to support US operations against the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) in Syria. (1/3)

NEW I A senior Iranian official suggested in an interview with Nour News on October 13 that the Iranian regime is unable to develop a long-term strategy because it continues to suffer from shock and paralysis after the Israel-Iran War. 1/6 Read more here: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...

NEW: PRC manufacturers have dramatically increased fiber optic drone component exports to Russia, possibly indicating a heightened PRC commitment to Russian battlefield success in Ukraine. (🧵1/4) Read more in the October 20, 2025 China Taiwan Update: understandingwar.org...

NEW: Russian President Vladimir Putin reportedly reiterated his demand that Ukraine cede all of Donetsk Oblast as a condition for ending the war, and suggested that Russia would be willing to “surrender parts” of occupied southern Ukraine. 🧵(1/7)

NEW: The Kremlin reiterated its commitment to Russia’s war demands that amount to Ukraine’s full capitulation. Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 18, 2025: isw.pub/UkrWar101825 Other Key Takeaways ⬇️ [🧵] (1/5)

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NEW: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and US President Donald Trump met at the White House on October 17 and discussed ongoing US support for Ukraine and efforts to the war Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 17, 2025: isw.pub/UkrWar101725 Other Key Takeaways ⬇️ [🧵] (1/6)

The Institute for Science and International Security (ISIS) reported that Iranian activity around Esfahan Nuclear Technology Center's underground facilities indicates that Iran is not attempting to retrieve centrifuges or uranium stocks. (1/ October 17, 2025 Iran Update: isw.pub/IranUpdate10...

NEW: US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin spoke on the phone on October 16.🧵(1/6) Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 16, 2025: isw.pub/UkrWar101625 Other Key Takeaways ⬇️

NEW: US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin spoke on the phone on October 16.🧵(1/6) Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 16, 2025: isw.pub/UkrWar101625 Other Key Takeaways ⬇️

NEW: Iranian-backed Iraqi fighters likely assassinated Iraqi Sunni Sovereignty Alliance candidate and Baghdad Provincial Council member Safaa al Mashhadani on 10/14 with an explosive device in al Dhubat neighborhood, Tarmiyah district, Iraq. Iran Update, October 16, 2025: isw.pub/IranUpdate10...

AP: "[ISW] said in an assessment published late Wednesday that sending Tomahawks to Ukraine would not escalate the war and would only 'mirror Russia’s own use of … long-range cruise missiles against Ukraine.'" apnews.com/article/russ...

ISW is aware that a known Russian bot network is again spreading fake videos that use the ISW brand and likeness to promote fabricated assessments and other false claims as part of the Kremlin’s concerted campaign to dissuade the US from providing Ukraine with Tomahawks. 1/2 theins.ru/en/news/285897

NEW: The Kremlin remains committed to its rhetorical effort to dissuade the United States from selling Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine amidst critical policy debates. 🧵 (1/7) Read more: isw.pub/UkrWar101525 Other Key Takeaways ⬇️

NEW: Syrian Transitional President Ahmed al Shara’s meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin on October 15 indicates that the Syrian government will likely pursue a pragmatic and multi-faceted relationship with Russia. 🧵 (1/4) Read more: isw.pub/IranUpdate10...

NEW: The Kremlin remains committed to its rhetorical effort to dissuade the United States from selling Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine amidst critical policy debates. 🧵 (1/7) Read more: isw.pub/UkrWar101525 Other Key Takeaways ⬇️

According to the March 24, 2025 Russian Occupation Update, Ukraine has been able to verify Russia’s deportation of 19,456 children to date, although the true figure is likely to be much higher because Russia frequently targets vulnerable children without anyone to speak for them. 🧵(1/4)

NEW: Russian forces have conducted three company- and battalion-sized mechanized assaults in priority areas of Donetsk Oblast over the last two weeks, marking an inflection in recent Russian armor usage in Ukraine. 🧵 (1/5) Other Key Takeaways ⬇️

NEW: Russian forces have conducted three company- and battalion-sized mechanized assaults in priority areas of Donetsk Oblast over the last two weeks, marking an inflection in recent Russian armor usage in Ukraine. 🧵 (1/5) Other Key Takeaways ⬇️

NEW: Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) Commander Mazloum Abdi said on October 11 that he and the Syrian transitional government reached a “preliminary agreement” last week to integrate the SDF and Kurdish internal security forces into the state’s defense and interior ministries, respectively. 🧵 (1/5)

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NEW: Hamas and Israel have continued to implement the October 9 ceasefire agreement. Hamas released all 20 living hostages and the bodies of four deceased hostages, and Israel released at least 1,700 Palestinian prisoners on October 13. (1/4) Read the full update: isw.pub/IranUpdate10...

WARNING: The Kremlin is Preparing to Mobilize Reservists on a Rolling Basis to Fight in Ukraine for the First Time: isw.pub/UKRWARNO101325 Note: This warning does not suggest that the Kremlin is likely to undertake a single large-scale mobilization at this time.

WARNING: The Kremlin is Preparing to Mobilize Reservists on a Rolling Basis to Fight in Ukraine for the First Time: isw.pub/UKRWARNO101325 Note: This warning does not suggest that the Kremlin is likely to undertake a single large-scale mobilization at this time.

NEW: The Kremlin removed some restrictions on using Russian reservists in combat, allowing the Kremlin to employ reservists in its war in Ukraine. ISW will review the significance of this draft law in an upcoming warning update publication. isw.pub/UkrWar101325 Other Key Takeaways ⤵️(1/3)

NEW: Hamas and Israel have continued to implement the October 9 ceasefire agreement. Hamas released all 20 living hostages and the bodies of four deceased hostages, and Israel released at least 1,700 Palestinian prisoners on October 13. (1/4) Read the full update: isw.pub/IranUpdate10...

NEW: Estonian authorities temporarily closed a section of road passing through Russian territory near the Russia-Estonia border on October 10 after Estonian border guards observed a small group of Russian military personnel without insignia in the area. 🧵(1/3) Read more: isw.pub/UkrWar101225

The RU defense industry is implementing long term efforts to increase T-90 tank production and recreate RU’s pre-war tank reserves, indicating that RU intends to present a long term military threat to NATO. (1/5) Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 11, 2025: isw.pub/UkrWar101125

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NEW: Russian forces launched a large, combined drone and missile strike against Ukraine on the night of October 9 to 10, primarily targeting energy infrastructure and civilian targets. Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 10, 2025: isw.pub/UkrWar101025 (1/5)

NEW: Israel & Hamas implemented a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip on Oct. 10. The ceasefire agreement does not address outstanding issues that were initially included in President Trump’s peace plan for the Gaza Strip. Iran Update, Oct. 10, 2025 : isw.pub/IranUpdate10... More Key Takeaways ⬇️ (1/3)

NEW: The PRC may have provided targeting intelligence via satellite to support a recent, large-scale Russian strike on Ukraine. This support could provide the PLA with some critical operational experience that it currently lacks. (🧵1/2)  Read more: isw.pub/ChinaTaiwanU...

NEW: EU and NATO states continue to take steps to increase European defenses against covert and overt Russian attacks. FT reported on October 9 that four NATO officials stated that NATO states are discussing more forceful responses to Russia’s increasingly provocative actions. isw.pub/UkrWar100925

NEW: EU and NATO states continue to take steps to increase European defenses against covert and overt Russian attacks. FT reported on October 9 that four NATO officials stated that NATO states are discussing more forceful responses to Russia’s increasingly provocative actions. isw.pub/UkrWar100925

NEW: Hamas and Israel agreed on October 8 to the first phase of US President Donald Trump’s plan for peace in the Gaza Strip. The Hamas-Israel ceasefire in the Gaza Strip is a framework ceasefire agreement and not a comprehensive agreement to end the war. (1/3) Full update: isw.pub/IranUpdate10...

NEW: Russian forces have been increasingly targeting Ukrainian logistics routes and positions in the near rear using mothership UAVs, particularly motherships based on variants of the Orlan and Molniya fixed-wing drones, since at least August 2025. (🧵1/6) Read More: isw.pub/ForceGenUpda...

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NEW: Russian federal ministries continue to facilitate the temporary deportation of Ukrainian children to Russia for cultural re-education programs such as “Cultural Map 4 + 85.” 🧵(1/4) Read more: isw.pub/OccupationUp...

NEW: Iranian officials have threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz, likely to try to discourage the United States from enforcing sanctions that target Iranian oil exports. (1/4) Iran Update, October 8, 2025: isw.pub/IranUpdate10...

NEW: Russian President Vladimir Putin remains committed to his theory of victory, which holds that Russia can outlast the West and Ukraine in a war of attrition, and his demand for Ukraine’s full capitulation. (1/ Read the full update: isw.pub/UkrWar100825

NEW: Russian President Vladimir Putin remains committed to his theory of victory, which holds that Russia can outlast the West and Ukraine in a war of attrition, and his demand for Ukraine’s full capitulation. (1/ Read the full update: isw.pub/UkrWar100825

NEW: Iranian officials have threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz, likely to try to discourage the United States from enforcing sanctions that target Iranian oil exports. (1/4) Iran Update, October 8, 2025: isw.pub/IranUpdate10...

NEW: The Kremlin continues its reflexive control campaign aimed at preventing the US from selling Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine. 🧵(1/6) isw.pub/UkrWar100725

NEW: The Kremlin continues its reflexive control campaign aimed at preventing the US from selling Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine. 🧵(1/6) isw.pub/UkrWar100725

Iran is pursuing alternative mechanisms, which may include barter systems, to mitigate the impact of snapback sanctions. Iran’s moves to mitigate sanctions are likely driven by concerns that sanctions on the Iranian economy will trigger an economic downturn. www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...

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NEW: Hamas agreed to a ceasefire with Israel on October 3 but called for negotiating other aspects of US President Donald Trump’s plan for peace in the Gaza Strip. Read the October 6, 2025, Iran Update: isw.pub/IranUpdate10... Other Key Takeaways ⬇️

NEW: Russia appears to be accelerating the informational and psychological condition-setting phase — “Phase 0” — of its campaign to prepare for a possible NATO-Russia war in the future. Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 6, 2025: isw.pub/UkrWar100625

NEW: Russia appears to be accelerating the informational and psychological condition-setting phase — “Phase 0” — of its campaign to prepare for a possible NATO-Russia war in the future. Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 6, 2025: isw.pub/UkrWar100625