Rent price growth still on the high side. #auspol #ausbiz #ausecon

Budget Tree one week out from traditional budget day

Some light reading while you wait in the queue to vote. Two posts this morning: (1) Polls - marktheballot.blogspot.com/2025/05/elec... (2) Betting Market - marktheballot.blogspot.com/2025/05/elec... #ausvotes #auspol #ausbiz #ausecon

Updated aggregation and betting market charts - but the same story. #ausvotes #auspol #ausbiz #ausecon marktheballot.blogspot.com/2025/05/day-...

Full post from Mark Graph on potential herding of opinion polls, D-minus 2 till voting ends #auspol #ausvotes marktheballot.blogspot.com/2025/05/day-...

This smells a little odd to me. About a 1 in 69 chance that the set of all national 2pp polls since 1 April (inclusive) occurred by chance. Is it herding? Is it resampling? I don't know. But I don't like it. #auspol #ausvotes #ausecon #ausbiz

Latest Newspoll (52/48 Labor) suggests we are looking at a repeat of the last election. #auspol #ausbiz #ausecon #ausvotes marktheballot.blogspot.com/2025/04/day-...

My analysis on how the Trump Trade Wars will unfold. markthegraph.blogspot.com/2025/04/us-t... #usa #trump #auspol #ausbiz #ausecon

A big movement to Labor in electorate betting. Labor is favourite in 77 seats (majority govt). Most-likely Parliament outcome is Labor on 72 seats (minority govt). #auspol #ausvotes #ausecon #ausbiz marktheballot.blogspot.com/2025/04/day-...

Roy Morgan has Labor on 55.5% - better than any election result for Labor in the past 75 years. My aggregation is 52%, a similar result to the last election. #ausvotes #auspol #ausecon #ausbiz marktheballot.blogspot.com

Today we focus on those seats where independent candidates have a prospect of winning the seat. There are a few new names here that could surprise. #ausvotes #auspol #ausbiz #ausecon marktheballot.blogspot.com/2025/04/day-...

Newspoll 52/48 in Labor's favour. My aggregation of pollster Labor 2pp estimates is 51.9 per cent. If the polls are right, the election result will be close to the previous election. #auspol #ausvotes #ausecon #ausbiz marktheballot.blogspot.com/2025/04/day-...

Election outcome odds and probabilities for every seat. Huge betting market update. More than 300 charts. It's all half price it's all got to go. #ausvotes #auspol #ausbiz #ausecon marktheballot.blogspot.com/2025/04/day-...

Polls and the betting markets continue to move in Labor's favour. #ausvote #auspol #ausbiz #ausecon marktheballot.blogspot.com/2025/04/day-...

t is unusual for a second term government to outperform its first term 2pp vote share. Today's polls suggest it might be possible for this Labor government. #ausvotes #auspol #ausbiz #ausecon marktheballot.blogspot.com/2025/04/day-...

Some movement on the individual seats market. #ausvotes #auspol #ausbiz #ausecon marktheballot.blogspot.com/2025/04/day-...

Updated poll aggregation charts following today's YpuGov (which had Labor 2pp at 52.5%). #ausvotes #auspol #ausecon #ausbiz marktheballot.blogspot.com/2025/04/day-...

Complete set of charts for the individual seats market #ausvotes #auspol #ausbiz #ausecon marktheballot.blogspot.com/2025/04/day-...

(1) Another Morgan poll that seems out-of-step with the rest of the field. Out of caution, I am treating Morgan polls since mid-Feb as a different series. (2) Betting market firms to Labor. #auspol #ausbiz #ausecon marktheballot.blogspot.com/2025/04/day-...

Updated Poll aggregations - Labor in front - but minority government the most likely outcome. #auspol #ausbiz #ausecon marktheballot.blogspot.com/2025/04/day-...

Updated Poll aggregations - Labor in front - but minority government the most likely outcome. #auspol #ausbiz #ausecon marktheballot.blogspot.com/2025/04/day-...

If there were any young people on this website I'd be reminding them to enroll to vote, or update their address, TODAY. But I probably don't have to worry. www.aec.gov.au/enrol/

It looks like the punters are firming their views on the 2025 Federal Election. #auspol #ausbiz #ausecon

The complete set of individual seat betting market probabilities (from sportsbet.com.au) showing some movement to Labor over the past 24 hours. #auspol #ausbiz #ausecon marktheballot.blogspot.com/2025/04/day-...

Some individual seat movements. #auspol #ausbiz #ausecon

The betting market still sees it as a very close race, #auspol #ausbiz #ausecon marktheballot.blogspot.com/2025/04/day-...

A polling aggregation update. #auspol #ausbiz #ausecon marktheballot.blogspot.com/2025/04/day-...

Another way to view the betting market data - stacked win probabilities for each seat (data from this morning) - sorted by Labor. #auspol #ausbiz #ausecon

A quick look at the number of individual seats the punters think each party will win at the 2025 Federal Election. Spoiler alert: the punters think no party will achieve the 76 seats needed for majority government. #auspol #ausbiz #ausecon marktheballot.blogspot.com/2025/03/day-...

Today we take another look at betting markets for the next Federal Election. #auspol #ausbiz #ausecon marktheballot.blogspot.com/2025/03/day-...

Today I looked at the pollster two-party preferred estimates for the larger states and territories. A full set of charts are here: marktheballot.blogspot.com/2025/03/day-... #auspol #ausbiz #ausecon

Election date watch: no movement today so April 5 is gone, realistically leaving April 12, May 3, May 10 and May 17. (April 12 is widely expected, Sky yesterday claimed May 3 and 10 were still being considered.)

Updated poll aggregations. #auspol #ausbiz #ausecon marktheballot.blogspot.com/2025/02/late...

A small movement on the betting market in the Coalition's favour. Time will tell if this is sustained. Coalition: $1.50. Labor $2.62. #auspol #ausbiz #ausecon

The betting market continues its wondrous dance. The Coalition is on $1.53. Labor is on $2.50 to win. After adjusting for the bookmaker's overround, punters give the Coalition a 61.4% probability of winning the next election #auspol #ausbiz #ausecon

Betting market and polling update for mid-Februart #auspol #ausbiz #ausecon marktheballot.blogspot.com/2025/02/bett...

In the minds of the punters, we are increasingly seeing a Coalition win next election. #auspol #ausbiz #ausecon (Caveat: sometimes the punters get it wrong).

In the minds of the punters, we are increasingly seeing a Coalition win next election. #auspol #ausbiz #ausecon (Caveat: sometimes the punters get it wrong).

Looks like a 25 basis point cut to the RBA cash rate is on the table for February. #auspol #ausbiz #ausecon

I was skeptical but it turns out cost of living subsides do affect underlying inflation rates! The trimmed mean can still be substantially affected, but the weighted median is relatively unbiased

Another excellent piece by @zacgross.bsky.social and why I will be looking at the weighted median when it comes out later today. open.substack.com/pub/gross/p/...

The real state of the Australian economy. Not as bad as some say. Not as good as others paint it. #auspol #ausbiz #ausecon markthegraph.blogspot.com/2025/01/the-...

The real state of the Australian economy. Not as bad as some say. Not as good as others paint it. #auspol #ausbiz #ausecon markthegraph.blogspot.com/2025/01/the-...

I am sure someone was wondering how the new monthly ABS Household spending indicator compares with the quarterly Household Final Consumption Expenditure in the National Accounts. #auspol #ausbiz #ausecon

Second move in support of the Coalition at SportsBet this week. Labor $2.25 - Coalition $1.61 - Other $81.00 Note: gaps in these charts are those days where I did not capture betting odds. #auspol #ausbiz #ausecon

A small movement on the betting market: Coalition $1.66 - Labor $2.20 - Other $81.00 Note: Gaps in these charts are days when I did not capture odds. #auspol #ausbiz #ausecon

The polls are not being favourable to Labor. #auspol #ausbiz #ausecon

A quick look at the sustained growth in the number of hours worked in the non-market sector. #auspol #ausbiz #ausecon

Updated blog post on Australian recessions (and a complete set of charts). #auspol #ausbiz #ausecon markthegraph.blogspot.com/2025/01/aust...

Just a note of caution: it is possible that the rate of disinflation may be slowing (just as the labour market is showing signs of tightening). Not a crisis, but something to watch. #ausecon, #ausbiz #ausecon