Shocked that gamblers don’t actually know anything. Shocked to my core. Call prediction market “data” what it really is: A Gambler’s Sentiment Index.

Big day for people using gambling sites as sources of data to tell how a race is going

Another L for the "wisdom of crowds" crowd. Ignore this trash!

what the fuck are we doing www.wsj.com/business/med...

Preach!

High-speed visual of gamblers being loudly wrong until they get punched in the face by reality. Stop using betting markets as reportable "data." It’s worthless.

Merry Christmas! 🎄 My present to all this year is access to high resolution versions of the maps I've posted in the last month. Enjoy! 🎁 drive.google.com/drive/folder...

Finally, Prop 50 results by precinct in Orange County. The largest Yes margin came from the UCI student housing communities precinct (Camino del Sol) 96.5% of voters voted Yes on Prop 50 The largest No margin came from a gated community in Laguna Niguel along Morning Dove 84.6% voted No

Prop 50 results by Orange County Cities and CDPs

Prop 50 results by old Congressional District

Political censorship has no place in journalism. Shame on Bari Weiss and CBS News for killing this segment.

Prop 50 by County Supervisor District I wonder if the Republicans on the BOS who drew this map realize they created a dummymander politicaldictionary.com/words/dummym...

Prop 50 results by State Senate District Steven Choi is really lucky.

Prop 50 results by Orange County Assembly District All results are from Orange County only (I'm sure AD 74 as a whole is actually quite a bit closer due to the San Diego portion not being represented here)

Prop 50 results by city in Orange County

Fashion Island, Newport Beach Prop 50 (2025) Yes: 256 (34.0%) No: 498 (66.0%) US President (2024) Harris: 380 (35.3%) Trump: 677 (63.0%) Despite a modest shift away from Trump in 2024, Fashion Island/Newport Center moved back towards the president only one year in.

Balboa Island, Newport Beach Prop 50 (2025) Yes: 404 (31.9%) No: 861 (68.1%) US President (2024) Harris: 585 (34.7%) Trump: 1,077 (63.8%) Median home price: $4.4 million Extremely wealthy communities continue to move towards Trump, in contrast to every other demographic group.

Los Rios Historic District, San Juan Capistrano Prop 50 (2025) Yes: 204 (75.6%) No: 66 (24.4%) US President (2024) Harris: 253 (62.2%) Trump: 150 (38.9%) This precinct shifted 23 pts to the right from 2020 to 2024 and has shift back (and then some) This is 90% Hispanic precinct in South OC

Little Saigon (Bolsa and Magnolia), Westminster Prop 50 (2025) Yes: 667 (55.0%) No: 547 (45.0%) US President (2024) Harris: 818 (42.8%) Trump: 1,063 (55.7%) This precinct had already shifted towards dems from 2020 -> 2024 (1.9 dem shift). This Vietnamese community is worth paying attention to.

Shady Canyon, Irvine Prop 50 (2025) Yes: 124 (34.9%) No: 231 (65.1%) US President (2024) Harris: 214 (36.1%) Trump: 355 (60.0%) The median home price in this neighborhood is about $9.1 million

Westminster, California Prop 50 (2025) Yes: 13,084 (52.8%) No: 11,703 (47.2%) US President (2024) Harris: 16,506 (44.3%) Trump: 19,850 (53.2%) Big Viet shift (if you can call it that) against Trump (-14.5 points)

Santa Ana, California Prop 50 (2025) Yes: 45,021 (75.6%) No: 14,545 (24.4%) US President (2024) Harris: 48,934 (60.4%) Trump: 29,688 (36.6%) Big shift with hispanics going on here

How did Orange County vote on Prop 50? Here's a breakdown by city. Unsurprisingly, South County is still conservative, but not as conservative as you might think! @vanceulrich.bsky.social

Standing before IVC’s 40th graduating class, I echoed words that have guided me for years, from my personal hero, Conan O’Brien: “If you work really hard, and you’re kind, amazing things will happen.” In a world that often feels uncertain, that truth still holds power. Congratulations Lasers!

Betty Martinez Franco is Irvine’s newest councilmember for District 5. Franco told LAist her closest opponent, former councilmember Anthony Kuo, conceded via a voicemail wishing her well, which he confirmed in a statement to the Orange County Register.

#BettyForIrvine #D5 #Irvine SHE WON!!! We are so happy to have her represent us! Thank you to all who helped with her campaign! Congratulations Betty!

The mask is finally off in Irvine's special election. Anthony is no moderate. Keep this guy off the dais. Vote for Betty Martinez Franco @laureldavilacpa.bsky.social

@laureldavilacpa.bsky.social Thank you for your support!

When someone shows you who they are, believe them the first time.

For those of you who are registered Democrats in #Irvine #CostaMesa #Tustin #AD73 please vote for these super progressives for #ADEM. Registration ends on 1/31. I wish I could tell you how hard they have worked in our Democratic Party Club to keep our area blue! @demsofirvine.bsky.social

On Monday, I was sworn in to serve a full term on the South Orange County Community College District Board of Trustees. To my surprise and great honor, my fellow board members nominated and elected me to serve as Board Vice President.

Happy Thanksgiving!