My latest Substack post is about the bi-annual ranking of major powers (a.k.a., the Olympics). What does the data say contributes to the dominance of certain countries in the games? open.substack.com/pub/mileswil...

In my latest Substack post, I think about the state of the Western Liberal Order as of 2024, and about some systemic trends that might have eroded alignment within the order before the current Trump Administration. open.substack.com/pub/mileswil...

I’m teaching a class about studying war with data, so of course I’m spending my spare time nerding out on the datasets I’m introducing my students to. open.substack.com/pub/mileswil...

Claude Code is a powerful tool for soc sci. But I don’t hear many talking about how =/= access (bc of the $) will reify the advantages of some researchers, while others will face a tough choice: make sacrifices to pay to play, or become even scrappier to keep up. open.substack.com/pub/mileswil...

The Olympic Games are coming up, and I’m ready for some curling. But I also wanted to know whether the games promote international peace. Based on the data, there’s some evidence that they do, but with some important caveats. open.substack.com/pub/mileswil...

Foreign aid agencies use logos and other public messaging to get the attention of people in aid recipients. Turns out the best way to grab attention is to be the premier aid agency in the world and then announce you’re closing shop. Simple, but effective. mileswilliams.substack.com/p/how-to-mak...

The U.S. is a dissatisfied major power, and it’s acting like one. This is what I wrote about in my latest Substack post. open.substack.com/pub/mileswil...

Did Trump administration policies targeting international students affect their political affiliations? I look at data from my own university to answer this question. I turns out their politics were affected, but the change was short lived. open.substack.com/pub/mileswil...

Is there any better way to spend Christmas Eve than thinking about international order and its decline? Yes. But I made this the subject of this week’s Substack post anyway. open.substack.com/pub/mileswil...

In my latest Substack post, I take a look at the latest official data on U.S. foreign assistance. The current contraction in aid is unprecedented (a word that I hate to use, because it’s overused, but it’s accurate in this case). #foreignaid #usaid #data open.substack.com/pub/mileswil...

I broke with my routine of 1 Substack post per week to share some data analysis relevant to the recent seizure of a Venezuelan tanker by the U.S. Statistically speaking, the situation is now much worse. open.substack.com/pub/mileswil...

Surprise! Students at my institution still use AI. But how do they say they use it, and how does AI make them feel? I answer those questions in my latest Substack post. open.substack.com/pub/mileswil...

The top recipient of Chinese overseas finance is...the USA. I talk about this in my latest Substack post drawing on brand new data from #AidData. open.substack.com/pub/mileswil...

The world isn’t perfect, but in my latest Substack post I show that most people who participated in wave 7 of the World Values Survey (people from 60 countries between 2017-2021) are on net satisfied with their lives and say they’re better off than their parents. open.substack.com/pub/mileswil...

As an academic and researcher, I’ve offered some takes on student AI use. This week’s Substack post is something different: a self reflection on my personal reluctance to make AI a bigger part of my writing and coding. open.substack.com/pub/mileswil...

Pulling this out of the Substack archives for a belated Veterans Day post. A statistically grounded reminder to not take peace for granted. open.substack.com/pub/mileswil...

Is the U.S. gambling with war in South America? I try to quantify the risk in my latest Substack post using the Militarized Interstate Events Dataset. #data #war open.substack.com/pub/mileswil...

In my latest Substack post I ask whether war is more likely today than in the past. The answer looks different depending on how you slice the data (shocker!). open.substack.com/pub/mileswil...

China has become a pretty important foreign lender and aid donor. Do recipients of its aid and loans take notice? I answer that question in my latest Substack post. open.substack.com/pub/mileswil...

Why do certain countries dominate in Nobel prizes? I have a data-driven answer in my latest Substack post. open.substack.com/pub/mileswil...

My dept head (Paul Djupe) and I published an article about our unique undergrad program called Data for Political Research, and why more schools should adopt a datacentric poli sci track that emphasizes applied research. I wrote about it in my latest newsletter: open.substack.com/pub/mileswil...

Who gets a state and why? I look at the case of Taiwan in my latest Substack post to answer this question. open.substack.com/pub/mileswil...

Now online ft. @pauldjupe.bsky.social @mdwilliamsphd.bsky.social A quantitative-forward approach to political science is popular & one that many believe would provide value for students. Djupe and Williams describe such a program that front-loads research methods. doi.org/10.1017/S104... #polisky

Excited for this to be out at PS -- discussion of our DPR program at @denisonuniversity.bsky.social that frontloads quant methods. @mdwilliamsphd.bsky.social and I also present survey evidence that the idea is popular among political scientists.

What’s going on with political violence in America and abroad? I offer some data-driven takes in my latest weekly post on Substack. open.substack.com/pub/mileswil...

How’s Russia’s economy doing since invading Ukraine? In my latest Substack post I take a look at several macroeconomic indicators to find an answer. The verdict: it’s doing better than I thought. open.substack.com/pub/mileswil...

For any #rstats users out there who do country-level and country dyad-level analyses of foreign #aid, I have a new R package for you called {odadata}. Check it out: github.com/milesdwillia...

What’s up with the US strike on a Venezuelan boat last week? In my latest Substack post I attempt to see how it fits with bigger patterns in U.S. foreign policy and global trends. Have a read (or listen): open.substack.com/pub/mileswil...

Is it a bad idea to chip away at (or take a sledgehammer to) the independence of the Fed? The data doesn’t lie — it’s a bad idea. This is the topic of my latest Substack. open.substack.com/pub/mileswil...

Do personalist regimes incur an economic penalty? Some new research says “yes” but in my weekly newsletter I muddy the waters a bit. open.substack.com/pub/mileswil...

In my latest Substack post, I offer a synopsis and rationale for how I plan to handle AI in my classes on data visualization and international relations. #AI #IR #data open.substack.com/pub/mileswil...

In my latest Substack post, I was inspired by the Alaska meeting between Trump and Putin to look at the past 80-ish years of conflict mediation by the U.S. to see if any patterns stick out. Two issues in particular caught my eye: ceasefires and territory exchange. open.substack.com/pub/mileswil...

Can you predict armed conflicts using Google Trends? I tackle this question in my latest Substack post. open.substack.com/pub/mileswil...

Do American troops abroad give the U.S. an edge over China in terms of soft power? The answer might surprise you. It surprised me. Check out my latest Substack post to learn more. open.substack.com/pub/mileswil...

In my latest Substack post, I look at compelling evidence that contact with US troops abroad generates goodwill toward America in host countries. Keeping troops stationed abroad is about more than hard power — it’s about soft power, too. open.substack.com/pub/mileswil...

Are US troops abroad good or bad for America’s image? I start tackling that question in this first of a series of posts on Substack. open.substack.com/pub/mileswil...

Can foreign direct investment substitute for foreign aid? I offer my take in my latest Substack post. open.substack.com/pub/mileswil...

In my latest Substack post, I show why America’s tariff ultimatum on Russia is as toothless as a newborn baby. open.substack.com/pub/mileswil...

In my latest on Substack, I ask who will win the AI arms race? The math is pretty simple. open.substack.com/pub/mileswil...

In my latest post, I offer a nerdy, deep in the weeds take on a complicated and a less complicated way to measure dissatisfaction in international relations. Turns out the complicated way gives you nearly identical results to the less complicated one. open.substack.com/pub/mileswil...

In my latest Substack post, I ask what factors predict greater numbers of non-peaceful protests breaking out in different countries. open.substack.com/pub/mileswil...

In today’s Substack post, I offer a sobering meditation on the demise of USAID. open.substack.com/pub/mileswil...

In today’s Substack newsletter I use some trade data to think about the effectiveness of using tariffs to influence BRICS. open.substack.com/pub/mileswil...

I recently read that a global debt crisis was brewing. I didn’t realize how clear the problem was until I looked at the data. Debt to GDP has reached levels not seen since the end of WWII. Read more in my latest Substack. open.substack.com/pub/mileswil...

How uncommon is a war like the Israel-Iran War? I tackle this question in my latest Substack post. open.substack.com/pub/mileswil...

U.S. global security hierarchy is on the decline. In my latest on Substack, I talk about why that matters for international peace. open.substack.com/pub/mileswil...

The U.S. joined Israel’s war with Iran, which didn’t come as much of a surprise to me. In my latest Substack post, I talk a bit about why, and offer some speculation about how this will end. open.substack.com/pub/mileswil...

Will or won’t the U.S. strike Iran? A bunch of IR scholars have offered their answers to this question. Here’s mine. open.substack.com/pub/mileswil...

In my latest on Substack, I look at data on Israel’s history of belligerence with its neighbors to bring some context to the current escalation with Iran. Check it out: open.substack.com/pub/mileswil...