I am once again asking people to disambiguate between “stocks go down”, “the economy being bad”, and “a financial crisis occurring”, three distinct things that can happen in any combination

Periodic reminder: 1/ Short-sellers make their money sniffing out fraud and similar problems in publicly-traded companies. 2/ A bubble's collapse isn't the problem; _the bubble_ is the problem. (There's a reason a collapse is also known as a "correction.") techcrunch.com/2025/11/27/t...

I listened to an interview from The Modern Warfare Institute with a J1 in the Rangers - basically the toughest, baddest Human Resources person in the Army. It got me thinking, what other mundane-sounding positions exist in elite military units? Seems like a @lethalityjane.bsky.social question.

Periodic reminder: 1/ Short-sellers make their money sniffing out fraud and similar problems in publicly-traded companies. 2/ A bubble's collapse isn't the problem; _the bubble_ is the problem. (There's a reason a collapse is also known as a "correction.") techcrunch.com/2025/11/27/t...

This piece isn't just about AI slop, or theft of creators' work. It's also about trust, which voices (human or electronic) we choose to believe, and how we often mistake confidence for ability.

Insurance is a game of risk transfer, and insurers do tons of homework on their side of the proposed bet. It's how they make their money. So when they've decided a given risk is uninsurable, that is a sign.

The opening line is a right hook. And then the hits keep coming. "OpenAI is a money pit with a website on top. That much we know already, but [...] there's a lot of guesswork required when estimating the depth of the pit."

NEW: AI “recipe slop” is overrunning search and social. Food creators say Google’s AI Overviews and glossy fake food pics are drowning out real, tested recipes — collapsing traffic and setting home cooks up for disaster, especially this Thanksgiving. Gift link: www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

While the American tech sector focuses on "kinda / maybe / someday" AI hype, companies in China are getting results _today_ by focusing on practical, meaningful use cases. Remember: AI-the-technology is fine. AI-the-far-off-dream-sold-as-reality is the problem.

Hats off to @404media.co for their stance on data privacy. Since they don't engage in invasive data collection, they're doing the honest thing of simply _asking_ people for information. So why not give their survey a whirl?

No clue why this post feels relevant again...

Today marks one year since I left my job with my pals at Aquatic. I've not quite achieved all the things I wanted to do in this time but I definitely have had an amazing time. CE work, conference talks, Computerphile, emulators...it's been a blast. One week til new job at Hudson River! Can't wait!!

This is *amazing*. This goes straight to Deceptive Design Hall of Shame. They made a "take a break" nudge that has no obvious "ok, I'll take a break" affordance. Its three affordances are: 1) Keep chatting (default, highlighted) 2) x out — keeps chatting 3) "This was helpful" — what is this? 🧵

I would argue that the genAI industry is built on a number of big assumptions, and "will the hardware last?" is at best a secondary concern.

If you've enjoyed any of my longer work, that's because of my editors and reviewers. (The same holds for plenty of other writers, I'm sure.) A thoughtful "have you considered [subtopic X or angle Y]" can send a piece in a new and interesting direction for writer and reader alike.

In the memo, “Nvidia also responds to claims that the ‘current situation is analogous to historical accounting frauds (Enron, WorldCom, Lucent) that featured vendor financing and SPVs [special purpose vehicles.)’” @barrons.com $NVDA @firstadopter.bsky.social www.barrons.com/articles/nvi...

Every tech shop claims that they run tests before a release. But how many of them _really_ test? Do they test (and, importantly, correct) as thoroughly as this cruise line?

Huge move to narrow the information asymmetry in hiring.

January 2025: I note that genAI's key friction stems from sellers living in the future and buyers living in the present. (newsletter.complex-machinery.com/archive/027-...) November 2025: investors see genAI hype as a vastly-overpriced lottery ticket that echoes of a Ponzi scheme.

Great post by @webology.bsky.social that drives home key lessons about complex systems: 1/ Large incidents occur when several small, innocuous issues collide in an unfortunate manner. 2/ You don't need a large group of issues for this to happen. Just a few will do.

Direct link to starter pack here for those want to skip the LinkedIn step: go.bsky.app/K7pijeB

January 2025: I note that genAI's key friction stems from sellers living in the future and buyers living in the present. (newsletter.complex-machinery.com/archive/027-...) November 2025: investors see genAI hype as a vastly-overpriced lottery ticket that echoes of a Ponzi scheme.

What, indeed. (LBOs are for daytime reading.)

Important read by @nickhunebrown.bsky.social . On the surface it's about genAI slop. Deeper, we have: - trust - how con artists tell us what we want to hear - how even a little digging can shed light on the truth - the extra scrutiny honest people will face because of scammers in the ranks

Is AI making job recruitment less meritocratic? We're getting some v interesting research studies on this question now, and the news is... not good. @jburnmurdoch.ft.com & I dive in, in the latest edition of our newsletter The AI Shift www.ft.com/content/e5b7...

Agreed. Given that a "strong forecast" is a key element of a bubble, this framing is not the big win it appears to be.

Important read by @nickhunebrown.bsky.social . On the surface it's about genAI slop. Deeper, we have: - trust - how con artists tell us what we want to hear - how even a little digging can shed light on the truth - the extra scrutiny honest people will face because of scammers in the ranks

In today's Complex Machinery: The meltdown of auto conglomerate First Brands Group serves as a warning about genAI companies. Also: - my new book! - Diet Bullshit, depicted newsletter.complex-machinery.com/archive/049-... #dataBS

The terms "AI" and "genAI" carry double meanings: On one side you have the underlying technology. On the other side you have the hype, vapor, and failed promises. I'm bullish on AI-the-technology. We need a new term to separate that from the AI-as-vapor hype wave. Thoughts? #dataBS

Irony is dead, but we can still talk to its genAI chatbot doppelgänger. (It keeps saying: "too big to fail"...)

Extended one more day! Spread the word! www.jetbrains.com/pycharm/pro... The DSF could use this for great things!

It's a rare thread that has me thinking about past, present, and future all at once. (Unrelated: spending my entire career in emerging tech may have warped my world view ...)

„you should get some coffee before you look at the news”. This does not sound good.

Irony is dead, but we can still talk to its genAI chatbot doppelgänger. (It keeps saying: "too big to fail"...)

In today's Complex Machinery: The meltdown of auto conglomerate First Brands Group serves as a warning about genAI companies. Also: - my new book! - Diet Bullshit, depicted newsletter.complex-machinery.com/archive/049-... #dataBS

When the fortune bot drops solid tactical guidance

I just posted my little intro to the Advent of Compiler Optimisation #AoCO that I announced yesterday. Check it out (and laugh at my terrible editing) at youtu.be/j-BwR-Cw0Gk?... @!4 if you want to watch the series, subscribe! :)

I'm not saying that "ask some key questions" will definitely uncover fraud. But it seems that "ask some key questions, then ask again when you get a weak answer" is one hell of a start to uncovering fraud.

Periodic reminder: The real "AI arms race" isn't huge companies competing to _build_ the best genAI model. It's people _using_ AI to compete with one another. That war amounts to a massive, wasteful stalemate. Case in point: job applications. (via @sarahoconnorft.ft.com @jburnmurdoch.ft.com)

This December, I'll be posting an article & video each day until Christmas in the Advent of Compiler Optimisations! #AoCO2025 Each day we'll explore a fun optimisation in C or C++; some low-level, x86 or ARM-specific, some high-level. Hope you'll join me! YT: youtube.com/mattgodbolt Blog: xania.org

It's here! I've just released my latest book, "Twin Wolves: Balancing risk and reward to make the most of AI." This is a tight, executive-level read on how to approach AI (both ML/AI and genAI) in your company. twinwolvesai.com #dataBS

this is fine dot gif www.cnbc.com/2025/11/11/s...

For the cover of Businessweek’s December issue, I wrote about the reigning queen of America’s strip malls: Ulta Beauty, the country’s biggest beauty retailer (yes, bigger than Sephora) and quietly one of the more fascinating retailers in the country. Gift link: www.bloomberg.com/news/feature...

Today's #GFC read: "Corporate Governance and Banks: What Have We Learned from the Financial Crisis" (2011) www.newyorkfed.org/research/sta...

People say that the current state of genAI echoes 2001 (Dot-Com). I see that, but I see even stronger parallels to 2008 (GFC). In particular, it feels like the genAI space is aiming for "too big to fail" status. Might be a good time to review some GFC-related reads ...

Prediction: a new Michael Burry is going to get minted in the next two years and he or she will make the bag shorting data center financing

Two of the world’s biggest data center developers have projects in Nvidia's hometown that may sit empty for years because the local utility isn’t ready to supply electricity. We called the developers and utility in question to find out why: www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

okay, seriously: if we were to corral this, would anyone be interested in contributing? Here is the google form: forms.gle/m2V4j4cDvwNu...

I'll add "complex systems," "network analysis," and "any kind of mathematical modeling" (especially time series analysis) to the list. Come for the numbers. Stay for the mental models that will apply to _so_ many situations in life.

It's here! I've just released my latest book, "Twin Wolves: Balancing risk and reward to make the most of AI." This is a tight, executive-level read on how to approach AI (both ML/AI and genAI) in your company. twinwolvesai.com #dataBS