18/ Conclusions 4: Policy measures are needed to drive this transition, with solar PV, wind, batteries, and electrolysers as key technologies for the #Caribbean’s carbon neutrality by 2050 or earlier. Additional graphical results can be found in the Supplementary Material

17/ Conclusions 3: The #Caribbean can reduce reliance on fossil fuels by adopting low-cost solar energy, creating a Solar-to-X Economy ideal for tropical islands globally.

16/ Conclusions 2: Batteries support PV-battery hybrids & grid interconnection enhances flexibility, reduces costs & supports wind with limited PV. Sector coupling & PtX improve efficiency. Electric road transport with V2G adds flexibility & grid-connected renew paths are 1-10% cheaper.

15/ Conclusions 1: PV-battery hybrid solutions emerge as the most economical option for the #Caribbean, and the possibility of this hybrid configuration dominating the future energy system is also echoed in recent literature.

14/ The #PtXeconomy will emerge an important framework across the #Caribbean energy sectors, via direct and indirect electrification approaches. twitter.com/ChristianOnR...

13/ #Cuba generates 25% of the #Caribbean’s 863 TWh electricity, followed by #Haiti and the Dominican Republic at 17% each. The regional average price is 30 €/MWh, with four nodes below this. By 2050, e-hydrogen and e-FTL fuels will comprise 46% and 30% of the fuel supply, respectively.

12/ Early defossilisation, illustrated in the BPSs, leads to early phase-out of fossil fuels, prioritises RE technologies and achieves 5-10% lower cumulative energy system CO2 emissions.

11/ Renewables-dominated paths have 7-24% lower cumulative costs as alternatives, with grid integration cutting costs by 1-10%. Accelerated transition paths cost 3-12% more as full defossilisation by 2050. Importing e-fuels lowers system costs by 7-16% & supports local resource use.

10/ e-Fuels will be essential for defossilising the hard-to-abate demands. By 2050, sustainable fuels will contribute to replacing all fossil fuels.

9/ Three electricity trade patterns are observed: With 1% onshore PV, CU and DO lead exports (90 TWh, 45 TWh), and HT is the top importer (80 TWh). Higher wind shares shift exports to CU (85 TWh), TCBB (70 TWh), PRV (35 TWh), and HT imports 110 TWh. The third pattern is with 6% onshore PV.

8/ Grid utilisation correlates with dominant technology profiles, such as solar PV or wind power. Scenarios with 30% wind show higher grid utilisation, indicating a wind-grid correlation, while those with 12% wind power have lower utilisation, showing a PV-storage correlation.

7/ The energy system includes electricity, heat, and gas storage. Batteries for prosumer and utility-scale use, along with V2G, are essential for daily solar PV storage.

5/ Background: Electricity is the main energy carrier in the #Caribbean, with sector electrification growing 3-8x faster in generation and 4-20x more installed capacity by 2050 compared to 2020.

4/ Background: This study makes a pivotal contribution as the first to analyse the #Caribbean with this level of granularity, employing a 9-node aggregation approach to represent grid interconnections.

2/ Novelties of the research: This study offers novel insights into the energy transition of archipelagic nations, enriching the global discourse on grid interconnection, early decarbonisation, and the strategic importance of e-fuel imports for land-constrained regions.

1/ New research @UniLUT doi.org/10.1049/rpg2... This study presents the first-of-its-kind comprehensive analysis of 17 illustrative pathways, exploring e-fuel imports, grid interconnections, and accelerated energy transitions for #Caribbean carbon neutrality by 2050.

US Supreme Court declines to hear challenge to California's right to set own vehicle emis standards for CO2 www.cnn.com/2024/12/16/p... CA's waiver to control CO2 granted by EPA based on my 2009 EPA testimony that CO2 affects local health in already-polluted cities web.stanford.edu/group/efmh/j...

Amazing! 2nd-largest US island (Kodiak Is, Alaska), w/ population of 15,000 & peak load of 28 MW, now runs year-round on virtually 100% Wind-Water-Solar electricity+storage: 33 MW hydro (supplying 80-85% of load) 9 MW wind (15-20% of load) 2 MW flywheels 3 MW batteries www.uaf.edu/acep-blog/po...

More big construction equipment going battery-electric Electric wheel loader and excavators push big construction job toward all-electric. electrek.co/2024/12/14/f...

Gov. @gavinnewsom.bsky.social, no more delays in shutting Aliso Canyon down My op-ed today in the LA Times www.latimes.com/opinion/stor... @foodandwater.bsky.social @stanfordwoods.bsky.social @ssteingraber1.bsky.social @profbobhowarth.bsky.social @swaziadam.bsky.social @txsharon.bsky.social

Aliso Canyon is the site of one of the largest gas blowouts in US history. 97,000 tonnes methane; 7,300 tonnes ethane over 112 days, forming carcinogens+air pollutants. 8,000 families relocated. Paper on blowout web.stanford.edu/group/efmh/j... 100 scientists support the shutdown lnkd.in/gNb9EAY7

Huge 6-1 Montana Supreme Court win! "Plaintiffs definitively showed at trial..that climate change is causing serious+ irreversible harms to environment in Montana-assuring future Montanans a 'harmful' rather than 'healthful' envir. as guaranteed by Constitution" www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024...

Montana Supreme Court upholds victory on 6-1 vote in first climate case on constitutional grounds! "The District Court’s conclusion of law is affirmed: Montana’s right to a clean and healthful environment and environmental life support system includes a stable climate system,..."

Here's the Montana Supreme Court opinion dailymontanan.com/wp-content/u...

Biden Administration Approves 11th U.S. Offshore Wind Project SouthCoast Wind will generate 2.4 GW of offshore wind for Massachusetts and Rhode Island www.maritime-executive.com/article/bide...

Science pays off: Two Supreme Court wins in three days in climate cases I testified in Dec. 16 US Supreme Court declines to hear challenges to California's right to control auto CO2 x.com/mzjacobson/s... Dec. 18 Montana Supreme Court affirms kids' right to stable climate x.com/mzjacobson/s...

1/ New research @UniLUT doi.org/10.1016/j.rs... on the #Caribbean energy transition. It presents the first comprehensive multi-sector, multi-node, multi-scenario analysis, focusing on the role of offshore floating solar PV in achieving carbon neutrality by 2050.

2/ Novelty: Insights into the transition for land-limited archipelagos, providing the first detailed analysis of #Caribbean islands' energy systems using a 9-node method to represent isolated grids. It explores carbon-intensive & carbon-neutral pathways to advance the transition.

3/ This research adds to the comprehensive literature on #100RE studies on islands doi.org/10.1002/wene... within the wider field of overall #100RE systems research ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/983...

4/ Background: Evolution of the islands’ primary energy across scenarios by energy carrier reveals a shift to high electrification with renewables across end uses, transforming the region’s energy metabolism from fossil fuels.

5/ Results show strong solar PV momentum, driven by excellent resources & improving economic viability. The generation mix is dominated by solar PV (67–90%) and wind (6–30%), complemented by hydropower, bioenergy, and geothermal.

6/ Direct electrification is the most effective approach for decarbonising road transport, though its application remains limited in marine & air transport. Shift from combustion engines to electric vehicles drives the transport electrification.

7/ Storage technologies address mismatch across timescales: batteries have diurnal traits, hydrogen storage follows a buffer pattern, and methane storage shows seasonal variability to balance VRE supply, hydrogen production, and heat demand. V2G exhibits diurnal and weekly patterns.

8/ The results show that LCOE & LCOFE in Best Policies are 3-10% and 32-67% lower than alternatives by 2050, echoing findings from comparable studies on the cost competitiveness of renewable-based pathways.

9/ Change in the energy system drives the emission reductions in the BPSs & DPS, indicating a correlation between higher renewable shares and lower emission levels. The CPSs support the hypothesis of a nexus between lack of ambition & carbon emissions.

10/ LCOE dominates costs across all nodes (61-83%) followed by LCOS (15-38%). Electric heating (65%) & sustainable bioenergy (34%) lead heat supply. #Caribbean’s fuel supply is mainly e-hydrogen (37%) & e-FTL fuels (27%). Regional electricity of 842 TWh, mainly PV & wind.

11/ In 2050, e-FTL fuels dominate H2 flow (44%), followed by industrial heat (20%) & e-methane (13%). Remaining used for liquid H2 (11%) & turbines (9%). Total electrolyser capacity reaches 87 GWel, with the highest in HT (27%) and H2 supply totals 265 TWhH2,LHV, led by HT (29%).

12/ The critical role of low-cost renewable electricity in achieving the deep defossilisation of the #Caribbean energy system through direct electrification of multiple end-use segments and indirect electricity use via PtX processes.

13/ Conclusions 1: This study shows that high renewable uptake reduces energy system costs and is climate-compatible, addressing the macroeconomic imbalances and growth challenges caused by high energy costs in the #Caribbean.

14/ Conclusions 2: The research shows solar-driven renewable uptake lowers energy system costs, highlighting fossil fuel projections are unrealistic. #Caribbean's solar momentum is driven by excellent resources and improving economics, suggesting the term "Solar-to-X Economy".

15/ Conclusions 3: This research asserts land constraints will not hinder a carbon-neutral #Caribbean energy system by 2050, with offshore floating solar PV as a key source. Future work should expand the offshore energy portfolio to include wave, wind & ocean energy solutions.

16/ Conclusions 4: The study shows no technical barriers to #Caribbean’s renewable transition, with storage, sector coupling & power-to-X ensuring flexibility. Batteries provide daily flex, gas storage for seasonal needs & EVs for low-cost transport with vehicle-to-grid flex.

17/ Conclusions 5: Achieving carbon neutrality in the #Caribbean by 2050 requires key policy measures and the deployment of solar PV, wind, batteries & electrolysers. Additional graphical results can be found in the Supplementary Material

There's easily enough renewable energy to meet Labour's clean energy target open.substack.com/pub/davidtok...

New blog post from @madeleinepauker.bsky.social on our research on place-based #retrofit cases with @seloncommenergy.bsky.social

Why install wind farms offshore the U.S. southeast & gulf coasts? Not only do they pay for themselves, but large arrays "diminish hurricane risk while reducing air pollution+global warming+providing energy at lower net cost than conventional fuels." www.yourobserver.com/news/2024/de...

A good overview of the “primary energy” fallacy. Basically, renewables waste far less energy for the same service as burning fossil fuels. So we actually need a lot less energy than you might think. Read more here: medium.com/@jan.rosenow...

SoCalGas pays out $71 million settlement for California Aliso Canyon Fossil Gas Blowout www.cbsnews.com/losangeles/n... Here's the impact of the blowout web.stanford.edu/group/efmh/j...

"Disinformation threatens climate action, UN warns" by @bberwyn.bsky.social for @insideclimatenews.org: www.nationalobserver.com/2024/12/02/n...