My take on Noboa's referendum loss in Ecuador. open.substack.com/pub/boz/p/ec...

You should click this link for the fantastic article and all the great photos of frogs. www.washingtonpost.com/climate-envi...

Honduras Election Scenarios: Scenario A: Contested Election Scenario B: Contested Election boz.substack.com/p/honduras-e...

This year’s Summit of the Americas was postponed due to “deep differences of opinion” among attendees. But as James Bosworth (@bloggingsbyboz.bsky.social) writes, it is precisely in times of high tensions that leaders should meet to resolve their disputes.

This week's Friday reading list includes an absurd number of articles about Venezuela, and yet I feel I missed a bunch too. boz.substack.com/p/friday-rea...

Today's post: 2,000 words in which I cover potential US military operations in Mexico, Venezuela, and Colombia, as well as the postponement of the Summit of the Americas. boz.substack.com/p/us-policy-...

It's one of those newsletters where I just ramble through some points I want to make with no clear thesis. I hit the publish button anyway and hope people like it. boz.substack.com/p/security-p...

As with Nicaragua a decade ago, there is a hidden explanation for El Salvador’s improved security situation under Bukele, James Bosworth (@bloggingsbyboz.bsky.social) writes.

1/When @himself.bsky.social and I wrote about the future of US economic coercion we hoped that the tools could be used for global collective goods like climate. Now US “evaluating sanctions on officials sponsoring activist-driven climate policies”’ on.ft.com/4qJF3Ko

There is a surprisingly high level of support for a US military intervention in Venezuela, particularly in the Andes and Brazil, where over half the population supports the idea. I'm not saying this to defend it, just to show that conventional wisdom is likely off.

My first draft attempt for scenarios for Argentina's 2027 election boz.substack.com/p/argentina-...

Today's long newsletter on Venezuela boz.substack.com/p/the-us-mil...

My take on Argentina's elections in @wpr.bsky.social www.worldpoliticsreview.com/argentina-mi...

"These same political power brokers promise draconian crackdowns on gangs, but do nothing to curb the illicit economies on which they thrive." www.nytimes.com/2025/10/24/o...

Keep an eye on the policy differences within MAGA over Venezuela. www.nytimes.com/2025/10/23/u...

My comments on Bolivia in Bloomberg: www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Most illicit trafficking schemes in Mexico have facilitators who live in the US, Canada or Europe. This fuel scandal is no exception. www.reuters.com/investigatio...

The Trump administration is running counter-drug operations in the Caribbean. Marco Rubio wants regime change in Venezuela. While they have tried to conflate the issues, as I write in today's @wpr.bsky.social column, the two narratives are splitting apart. www.worldpoliticsreview.com/trump-venezu...

Many analysts will be tempted today to give a contrarian take about why this Nobel Peace Prize announcement helps Maduro or changes Trump's agenda in some way. That's wrong. This is ultimately positive for Venezuela and deserved by those who fight for democracy.

If I ran the Nobel Prize committee, I'd issue a press release tomorrow listing the ten things Donald Trump needs to do during the rest of his presidency to win the Nobel Prize in 2028. Then see if he follows through. They have leverage; he wants to win it. It's worth a shot.

Comment I posted yesterday on substack and Twitter but which didn't fit here. substack.com/@boz/note/c-...

The Security Council may be setting up the new U.N. mission to Haiti for failure, just as it did to its predecessor, James Bosworth (@bloggingsbyboz.bsky.social) writes.

NEW: A previously undisclosed State Department report and interviews reveal accusations that U.S. Ambassador Ronald D. Johnson shielded Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele from U.S. and Salvadoran law enforcement.

Updated chart and new map. boz.substack.com/p/a-map-of-h...

It's not surprising that Rubio is pushing for regime change in Venezuela. But this article doesn't suggest they have put together any realistic plan for making it happen. www.nytimes.com/2025/09/29/u...

Despite demands to overhaul Chile’s political system, no direction for change has emerged, nor is one likely after upcoming elections, James Bosworth (@bloggingsbyboz.bsky.social) writes.

Probably true, but less consequential than most people think. The most likely scenario is that they'll hit some "TdA" sites, declare mission accomplished, and be done. www.nbcnews.com/politics/nat...

Report accuses Ecuador of 'forced disappearances.' It couldn't come at a worse time for Noboa National protests kicked off Monday and have spread to the capital as indigenous federation CONAIE calls for a national strike LATEST by me for PWS

A major scandal offers Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum an opportunity to tackle graft and improve her political position, James Bosworth (@bloggingsbyboz.bsky.social) writes.

Strong reporting in the NYT about the recent crackdown in Nicaragua that seems to indicate Rosario Murillo consolidating power around herself to prepare for a transition in government www.nytimes.com/2025/09/20/w...

I have a clear personal preference for G, but the only correct answer is D, where half the world's population lives.

A scandal allegedly involving a top adviser and the president’s sister seems like the exact sort of political corruption that Argentinians elected Javier Milei to stop, James Bosworth (@bloggingsbyboz.bsky.social) writes.

The Trump administration genuinely considers the U.S. to be at war with Latin America’s drug cartels. As James Bosworth (@bloggingsbyboz.bsky.social) writes, the perceived conflict is part of Trump’s broader foreign policy vision of the world.

If Milei's LLA had lost by five points in the province of BsAs, it would have been close enough. A 13 point loss points to real political trouble for Argentina's president.

Maduro doesn’t care about the eleven people who were killed on the boat or the legality of the operation. Ordering extrajudicial executions is part of his day job. Maduro only cares about how the video impacts regional public opinion.

Quoted in Bloomberg. Whether or not I think this naval operation was strategic, just, or legal, the political reality is that Trump is engaging in a militarized security populism that has plenty of supporters in this hemisphere.

Tom Shannon in Newsweek: "If there is a new Monroe Doctrine, it's kind of emasculated in the sense that the president is not bringing what you need to the game in order to win," www.newsweek.com/will-venezue...

Trump sent ships to the Caribbean to blockade the Panama Canal. All the talk about Venezuela could be a decoy to accomplish the mission of retaking the Canal that he promised in his inaugural address. Crazy theory? Sure. But not much crazier than the idea of invading Venezuela.

Rubio going to Mexico and Ecuador next week. apnews.com/article/rubi...

I keep reading interviews & comments from Tuto Quiroga in international media outlets. He's spending more time messaging to US investors than he is to Bolivian voters. It would be a smart move for a leftist candidate (who needs stability around market concerns), but it's a waste of Quiroga's time.

The Economist quotes my newsletter. www.economist.com/the-americas...

The headline is pure clickbait, but the article does a good job explaining the economics of the yerba mate industry in Argentina. www.bloomberg.com/news/feature...

After the long-dominant MAS party imploded in recent elections, Bolivia’s opposition now faces a new test: the coming transition of power and governing beyond that. Columnist James Bosworth (@bloggingsbyboz.bsky.social) writes:

Today's newsletter tries to answer variations of the questions I was asked all last week. boz.substack.com/p/will-the-u...

New report published by the FACT coalition about illegal gold mining thefactcoalition.org/report/illeg...

Tried to collect all my Bolivia thoughts including a few I made in various social media posts here in one newsletter available to everyone (no paywall). boz.substack.com/p/12-points-...

The assassination of Miguel Uribe Turbay is rattling Colombia, which was already politically polarized and on edge ahead of next year’s presidential election, James Bosworth (@bloggingsbyboz.bsky.social) writes.

Is Rodrigo Paz center-left, center-right, right-wing? He ran on a strategically vague capitalist platform. He benefits from the leftwing credentials of his father. He convinced Doria Medina to endorse him. But a good portion of his first round support came from disappointed center-left MAS voters.

More Brazil sanctions coming down the pipeline. www.ft.com/content/811e...