This is why we kicked the economists out of political science.

It has long been claimed that, for those who see modern warfare only through screens, the effect is sanitised. In today’s social-media world that is changing radically

Great article in WOTR today about command under the sea. Lessons seem hauntingly relevant to ongoing crises. "Finally — and in some ways, the most difficult — delay action when the consequences of being wrong can spin out of control..." warontherocks.com/leading-in-t...

To the general, nukes are just really big bullets.

Open multiple fronts simultaneously, you say 🧐

Soldier, sailor, airman, marine, coast guardsman, guardian(?).

👇

That's a helluva quote

My view of the book is that it is in a league of its own for research but it's bad analysis. Miller gets interview access to EVERYONE and he's collected ALL the data, but his conclusions don't naturally follow from that. It ignores structural factors, assuming only decisions determined the outcome.

CIA, DOD, State

I didn't understand this line from the restraint FP movement. If you want an efficient exercise of great power you lean heavily on naval power and allies, vice your own continental army. What am I missing?

I just assume the only point of all crypto is to scam people.

The embarked Marines:

Petraeus boldly lobbying for an industry he personally profits from... Such courage. www.wsj.com/opinion/amer...

Not great

$300k? No way it's that low...

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Always in the last place you look.

Who could have seen this coming? ... Well, maybe Lindsay O'Rourke who wrote a book on it. www.cornellpress.cornell.edu/book/9781501...

Gross

Overestimating the effects of air/missile strikes is so universal it should be added to the definition of the fundamental nature of war.

👇 words are hard

Is there anything private equity firms haven't ruined?

This is a very thoughtful thread👇

Getting Europe to take more responsibility for its own security was easy. The tradeoff? Europe takes more responsibility for its own security.

What the what?

That an output is produced from a formula, no matter how complex, does not signify intelligence. See also large language models, or missing the forest for the trees.

The US does not lose wars because it fails to “take the gloves off” 😒

How easy it is to learn the wrong lesson, repeatedly. Planners in 2001 chose a strategy of a light footprint, sending far fewer than was required to accomplish objectives in Afghanistan because they thought the lesson of the Soviet occupation was too many soldiers.

Open access article “The drone revolution: Towards a synthesis in the drone debate” www.cambridge.org/core/journal...

Betts and Biddle on the same byline? Yes Please! "Strategy simply means a plan by which military power will produce the desired political result. The war against Iran does not have this." www.foreignaffairs.com/iran/price-s...

Efficiency and the cost of exchange ratios matter... A lot

Combining military operations, or the threat of military operations, with diplomatic efforts happens often and can be effective. The diplomatic arm tends to be an afterthought though, which creates a bias towards military action as the only tool of state power.

Output metrics are not outcome metrics.

Still not as big as Google though.

31st and 11th MEUs reporting to CENTCOM.

We're not psychologically ready for the attrition that would ensue from a war over an honestly contested space, nevermind materially ready.

There are no laws in social science... ... But, war always takes on a life of its own.

Data points are important, but we should think critically about what those data points are an indication of. During Desert Storm in 1991, "Commanders had mistaken reduced enemy activity for the physical destruction of enemy capacity." warontherocks.com/2026/03/dont...

Woops!

There are no laws in political science... ...but wars will always be harder, more costly, and induce more unintended consequences than anticipated.

A core finding of my forthcoming book on the history of US CT in Afghanistan is that you cannot, in fact, just kill people you think are bad and have it all be fine 🙄