There are no laws in political science... ...but wars will always be harder, more costly, and induce more unintended consequences than anticipated.

A core finding of my forthcoming book on the history of US CT in Afghanistan is that you cannot, in fact, just kill people you think are bad and have it all be fine 🙄

This is a bad survey question. The general public are not legal scholars and getting their views on it is not useful. That's like surveying astrophysicists on deterrence theory. If you want to know if Americans support or oppose the war, then just ask that question.

Your periodic reminder that one's brand is completely distinct from talent.

This should be standard practice for every intelligence analyst and baked into their performance evaluation. It isn't.

... Something about pots and kettles

Is that a good thing, you might be wondering... 👇

Schrödinger's strategic depth

Metaphors can be good for communicating analysis, but metaphors as analysis, not so good.

With consequences for retention, morale, and recruiting.

Not an insignificant fact...

Research is not about "pulling together references" and saving time, but also about the things you discover along the way while doing the research yourself.

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Hey! Scholars! If you're using someone's work in your class, sometimes it's nice to email them and tell them, because then they might feel good about their research instead of entirely crushed by the academic humanities' ongoing descent into the grave

The most popular word used in online dating profiles in each US state

New article in War on the Rocks is... very good. Not just because the analysis is great (anchoring current developments in historical context) but because they're honest about their past assessments and potential current biases. A case study in how to do it right. warontherocks.com/2026/02/is-t...

Amen

Well but also because of the people who are evil

Today, I started a new position at the Center for Naval Analyses. After many years of cheering on Army, I'm now required to say... Go Navy, beat Army!

The irony being that if you do so, you're incredibly valuable to employers. If not, you're easily replaceable.

Rule #1: listen to smart people when they speak. 👇

Donald Trump’s tariff threats force Europeans to count their arrows

👇 The comparable case that sticks in your mind can help make sense of current events, they can also be dead wrong even if at first they seem comparable. Another example in my world was comparing Najibullah 1989 to the Afghan government in 2021. Spoiler, they were not comparable.

“Even if a regime change operation succeeds at first, history again shows that long-term outcomes are often disappointing,” write Alexander Downes and Lindsey O’Rourke.

There’s news this morning Post your best GIF reaction

Also this 👇 www.cornellpress.cornell.edu/book/9781501...

This article ends with a banger! Worth a read. "Still, it is hard to ignore the most fundamental dilemma laid out here. If intelligence is both un-American and necessary, one must conclude that the United States can never truly live up to its ideals."

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And yet, I'm required to put five into my email, otherwise the recipient may think I wish them physical harm.

Very excited to report that my book manuscript has finally cleared the Pentagon’s pre-publication review! 📖 You can pre-order your copy now via Amazon or Barnes & Noble. Should be out sometime in 2026! 👍

This! 👇 In my class simulations, students acting as the US always assume they're responding to an invasion. When I ask how would they respond to lesser forms of coercion, not a lot of answers.

Another asymmetric military tool unilaterally removed from the toolbox. Good thing the future of war is drones versus robots, amirite?! 😒 www.dvidshub.net/news/552529/...

For recently graduated undergrads and enrolled graduate students, the CNA internship program is open for summer 2026! Come join us and work on exciting research, analysis, and #wargaming for the Navy & Marine Corps! Open until Dec 1st. 🔗 www.cna.org/careers/inte...

The Counterinsurgency Dilemma... Foreign Fighter Influence on Insurgencies in Afghanistan and Somalia -very interesting looking book coming out soon by @triciabacon.bsky.social www.degruyterbrill.com/document/isb...

👇 the number of products being unironically sold that were literally plot lines of Black Mirror... Wild

It's pretty insufferable

This! 👇 Stop asking whether AI should be used and start working to understand what it means now that it is being used.

Great analysis!

Just because a military is changing its tech, doesn't mean it's changing for the better. 👇

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In which I join host Robert Kremzner and John Nagl to discuss lessons from the US withdrawal from #Afghanistan newlinesinstitute.org/state-resili...