Everybody in America should be disappointed in a game ending in a tie.

An older lady struck up a conversation with me in the waiting room of my doc’s office. In the 8 minutes before I was called in to see the doc I talked her out of an absurd annuity some jerk was trying to sell her.

If, like me, you have bought or will buy an EV before the federal tax credit goes away, do not get a Chargepoint home charger. Dealing with the flaws in their product and the incompetence of their customer service has drained weeks of my time.

Congrats everyone. We got unemployment down to -2.6%.

I’ve received multiple calls, texts, and alerts from government agencies in California about the tsunami advisory tonight. This is a much better warning system than was in place in 2011 during the Tohoku earthquake.

I’m glad that the victims of the Texas floods have not been treated with the same level of contempt and political theater as the victims of the California fires early this year. May we never do that again.

Reading the Figma S-1.

Trades and home services businesses in Los Angeles are collapsing. Our home has a plumbing need and the businesses we're calling are saying their people are afraid to go on jobs right now.

#NoKings Playa Vista

I’m proud of my Senator today and I’m proud to be a Californian. If jackboot thugs feel empowered to attack the senior senator of the richest and most populous state, the thugs will surely feel empowered to attack you.

I get more Lindy by the day.

Q2 2025 is going to be the best kitchen sink quarter since 2020. If you've got an excess cost, a writeoff, a project to cancel, an expense to recognize, do it this quarter. Everyone's numbers are going to be a mess. Might as well join 'em.

Shout out to all the people flying home with me in boarding group B on Southwest but wearing NetJets hats.

The number of investors from China at the Berkshire meeting feels like it’s back to a post pandemic high. Nothing better for peace and cross cultural interaction than the cult of Warren.

Security throughout Omaha events has been much higher this year. Luigi effect probably.

The kid who came to the Berkshire meeting in 1995 to ask Warren what to do with his life is now bringing his kid to ask Warren what to do with his life.

Wow. Buffett is formally announcing his retirement plan.

Fourteen years ago the WSJ referred to me as "suspiciously not bald." www.wsj.com/articles/BL-... I'm proud to say that I remain not bald. For those of you going to Omaha this week, see you there!

Thanks to Whole Foods for bringing me news I can use.

One of my founders today told me that her sales funnel -- six figure ARR deals from major manufacturing companies -- has frozen in place over the last two months. She can no longer forecast when any of the deals will close.

We didn't feel the earthquake in our part of LA, but I was very impressed by the performance of the early warning app. This system will make a big difference when the big one comes.

The 90 pause will bring us to July. That means people running businesses will have been holding their breaths for 6 months. 6 months w/o understanding how to think about raising capital, investing in production, hiring people, or developing new products. No one can hold their breath for 6 months

The sound and the fury signified nothing, after all. It was a tale told by an idiot.

Suppose you had the power to swing financial markets with a post on social media because you, alone, held absolute control over economic policy. Would you share what you were doing in advance with a friend, maybe family members? Purely hypothetical. No one in that position would be so unethical.

506(d) enforced an advantage for institutional LPs, whose large check sizes were needed when LP slots were limited. With 506(c) unshackled now by the Latham letter, the whole institutional LP "we'll get to know you over three years" posture will become harder to sustain.

Great quarter, guys.

Prediction: the highest month of US new car sales in my lifetime will be March 2025.

Inbox: "IOT is going to be an $8 trillion market!" 7% of global GDP - really?

Retention is such an important metric for a software company. I'm reviewing the financials of a portfolio company that has improved NRR by 20 points in one year. It's like they're a totally new, better all around company.

I'm coordinating an upcoming board meeting with a portfolio company, using their self-built synthetic AI employee. We'll see if it can handle scheduling, topics, deck preparation, revisions, etc.

Never meet your heroes. And never attend your HOA board meetings.

Earthquake!

Bond. James "Amazon Basics" Bond. As imagined by AI.

My favorite newly discovered Substack is The Terminalist. The author has an incredibly deep understanding of the financial data business. Pour yourself a drink and read. substack.com/@theterminal...

Pat Riley has got to be so disappointed.

Taking a Waymo to go to dinner tonight. How much should I tip?

My evolving hypothesis is that foundation model AI companies will have unit economics akin to cell phone companies. They will provide an essential service while earning mediocre returns on capital.

This post, by @athomasq.bsky.social, is one of the most sophisticated analyses of VC I've ever read. I agree with nearly everything he says here. pivotal.substack.com/p/making-mar...

Thank you to the team at Two Palms Care Center in Altadena for evacuating all 45 patients, including my mother-in-law Valerie Fine, in the first hour of the Eaton Fire, even as the building burned down. www.latimes.com/california/s...

Rocket launches require great software. Congrats to those Blue partners who contributed to tonight's success -- you know who you are!

Godspeed, Blue!

Watching a water drop extinguish a spot flare on a fire line is so satisfying.

I have no affiliation with all the OF bots named Alex that suddenly followed everyone today. I'm real - I swear!

Missed this one over the holidays -- congrats to Stage VP portfolio company First Resonance on raising $12m! pulse2.com/first-resona...

Why can I always see typos more easily when I've already made a PDF of my document? Why can I always see typos even more easily after I've already hit send?

My Christmas wish is for everyone to turn off their AI SDRs until January.

Exciting news for Stage VP portoflio company Sunairio, which just raised a round to accelerate deployment of its AI driven climate modeling data for developers and owners of renewable energy. www.axios.com/2024/12/20/a...

Congrats to GrayMatter Robotics and First Resonance for being named to the 2024 LA Hard Tech 50! Stage VP has been backing hard tech startups since our inception almost a decade ago. www.addtheegg.com/p/2024-la-ha...

Over the last 90 days, my time has been devoted to two types of startups in my portfolio: 1) companies that last raised more than two years ago, and do not have viable futures 2) companies w/ just enough story and traction to have a plausible future, but where delivering that future is still hard

Me? I’m thankful for liquidity.