Terrific news - tell your friends!

New from Magda Pacholska and I: www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.... (open access - no paywall).

Really proud to be leading such a terrific team, and delighted for those leading this specific challenge. We knew we were at the frontier, and pushing it forward. Now the world does too.

First company post on BSky. Not a bad one to begin with. bsky.app/profile/cass...

New Blog - one what's visible, and what's not, in AI Progress.

New Blog! open.substack.com/pub/cassiai/...

New Cassi Blog - rethinking decision-making.

Terrific fun yesterday talking about this with super smart and engaged audience and brilliant friends and colleagues on stage. Hope you enjoy it as much as I did! open.substack.com/pub/cassiai/...

A good explanation of why prediction is important to analysis. "Refusing to put numbers on beliefs does not make those beliefs less numerical; it merely makes them unaccountable." cassiai.substack.com/p/everything...

New blog: how we see the world at Cassi - decisions, tactics, strategy, perception, agency - everything is prediction. cassiai.substack.com/p/everything...

Future Diplomat - New Cassi Blog Post out now. open.substack.com/pub/cassiai/...

“Don’t be humble, you’re not that great.” Golda Meir I think. In that spirit 😊. But maybe consider subscribing, or upgrading to a paid subscription. cassiai.substack.com

I wrote this week on the way that intelligence services are increasingly experimenting with frontier labs’ AI models—though still too slowly and conservatively, according to critics—and how that might compare with Chinese agencies and institutions. www.economist.com/internationa...

New blog. 'Just' an update on AI progress.

Today (w/ @ox.ac.uk @stanford @MIT @LSE) we’re sharing the results of the largest AI persuasion experiments to date: 76k participants, 19  LLMs, 707 political issues. We examine “levers” of AI persuasion: model scale, post-training, prompting, personalization, & more!  🧵:

@kpdmusing.bsky.social defines asymmetric advantage as ‘demonstrably matching our strengths against other’s weaknesses, in a way that we can show, probabilistically, will lead us to achieve a superior position if we are successful’ #BigAsk #BritainsWorld

Pleased to have my take on the definition of asymmetric advantage in our National Security Strategy published by the Council on Geostrategy - and among a stellar cast offering their views.

Completely bonkers. “The UK is expected to back Nato’s push for all members to spend at least 3.5 per cent of GDP on defence by 2035, despite Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer’s hesitation over when the UK will get to 3 per cent.” www.ft.com/content/d44e...

Thoughts on the Review, and my worry we miss the opportunity it gives us. open.substack.com/pub/cassiai/...

Robustly demonstrated by now that you don’t need a mind to have theory of mind:

New blog post: open.substack.com/pub/cassiai/...

Reading @milesbrundage.bsky.social, @kpdmusing.bsky.social, wondering when to shout fire