Is one year of underperforming a blip. Likely. Is three years of underperforming a blip. Perhaps. Is five years of underperforming a blip. No. 🧵

Fed Chair interviews…

It’s January 11th and the confirmation bias of people on X on events in the world is at record levels. Tribal Just vitriol No nuance No research Pure Dunning Kruger It shouldn’t be like supporting a football team At least in sports there are clear results to keep you grounded

The Interest rate on student loans in the UK is crazy. The Plan 2 level is RPI +3% and kicks in from point loans starts! It is grossly unfair. Too high.

How do pieces like this get approved by editors? Lady moaning about buying 7 bedroom house for £425k and can’t sell for £2.5m. Rode asset inflation up for decades and she says they have done crucial upgrades like a sauna!

Did Farage say more about international law than the EU?

For all the complaining I see about Continental Europe from right wing X influencers in U.K. I thought this chart was interesting illustrating higher real PPP GDP per capita in many Northern European cities than London. Also fascinating how other UK cities lag a lot…

America is rich and the UK is poor… True but this statistic shocked me… The average wealth per American adult is $620k but the median is only $124k! The average wealth per UK adult is $339k and the median is $176k. 🧵

Make London great again this year UK fintechs. www.thetimes.com/business/com...

Gold finger remake? Need to rename Pussy Galore I guess for the 21st century?! open.substack.com/pub/rupakgho...

X says it makes $454m of EBITDA which is a 60%+ margin but it also made net los of $577m! Which one would Buffett and Munger look at?

What investment are they talking about…I thought it was peppercorn on all new developments anyway? And govt changes laws all the time…why should they protect unproductive rent seeking by Cayman Islands based shell companies!

Amazing piece…so funny….”when we told the Poles to go home we didn’t mean it literally”

Trying out a sponsor approach vs subscription with today’s piece… open.substack.com/pub/rupakgho...

Good piece by @dsquareddigest.bsky.social using the examples of SVB and CS Vibes matter when your deposit base can walk in 48hrs www.ft.com/content/b12c...

Wrote up my notes on interview HRT head of AI did. Their mid frequency trading is big but order book/flow data. It’s intraday/ not multi day - different to models at DE Shaw, Two Sigma where mid frequency is longer term factors/fundamentals signals… rupakghose.substack.com/p/the-new-hu...

JPMs new tower reminded me of the long history of bankers building towers and fancy trading floor at the wrong time.. Remember the legendary UBS trading floor of Stamford. Citadel is building even bigger towers than JPM soon… open.substack.com/pub/rupakgho...

Research analysts have "great quarter guys". CEOs have "let me unpack that question." Silicon Valley has "each person will be more load-bearing"...or is that a construction site for the Qatar World Cup….

it's been very effective with people not in the industry; when I've pointed out to those saying how great he is that from my point of view as a City person for decades, he's committed a cardinal sin by massively over-inflating his credentials, they simply don't care. so yes, it's worked:

Worth a read - how one of the hottest YouTube channels and book deals in the UK in recent years was based on the credibility of a fake story. So obviously not the best trader in the world at Citi and his colleagues seem to think his stories are also made up 😂 www.linkedin.com/pulse/gary-s...

Happy Diwali!🪔 Sell your Gold and Silver?!

Why is it always Deutsche Bank, Soc Gen and Barclays. I miss the days when Credit Suisse would lead the risk off share price declines. Waiting for the US open

Are we yet at the point that Jason Calacanis starts writing in large caps “YOU SHOULD BE ABSOLUTELY TERRIFIED RIGHT NOW”…Silicon Valley needs a tariff exemption

Over on X, Silicon Valley Ai types are discovering that British private citizens spend a lot on railroads in 1840s “why has no one talked about this before” 🙈 I mean sure…it’s called books

Hedge funds and their allocators are looking at commodities so I dug into the history of the space… open.substack.com/pub/rupakgho...

Rupak's guide to hedge funds continues with one of the more interesting and secretive ones... open.substack.com/pub/rupakgho...

Big tech and AI startups all funding each other…Buy my product and I will invest in you…makes the shadow banking sector look simple

If the US gets rid of quarterly earnings...what will the pod shop hedge funds and sell-side equity research analysts do all day?

Hudson River Trading now has one of the highest revenue per employee ratios in finance🧵

Poetry on Jane Street by @dsquareddigest.bsky.social Nothing succeeds like success. Or, as the parable has it, “to the one who has, more will be given, but from the one who has not, even that little that they have will be taken away”.

Why does everyone focus on nominal inflation over decades and not the annual returns? Is a 1% inflation-adjusted annual return a gift to property owners by the UK government?

“ I am just a f*cking YouTuber, it’s up to the experts to work out how to implement the wealth tax”…”I don’t do implementation” “maybe we should seize assets like the Chinese” Interesting latest YouTube video from Gary “the best trader in the world at Citi” Stevenson. youtu.be/gHrxoKEnvEs?...

New piece out - When electronic trading platforms get disrupted. MarketAxess won the battle. Tradeweb won the war 🧵

This is the sort of research people pay serious money for

Almost 4,000 words on electronic trading platforms… “Monopolists lie to protect themselves … usually by exaggerating the power of their (non-existent) competition,” and “non-monopolists tell the opposite lie: ‘we’re in a league of our own.” Peter Thiel open.substack.com/pub/rupakgho...

Fantastic essay. Really learned a lot - thank you

I wrote about how traders at banks and hedge funds are running the show in London not IPO and M&A bankers… www.thetimes.co.uk/article/trad...

Seeing a lot of pieces on Substack that are going viral on narrative basis but with factually inaccurate financial analysis. Substack is amazing and I have been calling the death of sell side research for ages but I wonder if that is its downside vs sell side research.

If another person on LinkedIn using the words “so much to unpack here” I am going to respond with “great quarter guys”

It’s all just locker room talk! A directional trade based on market impact. Do the arbitrage riskless and in small size and it isn’t profitable. open.substack.com/pub/rupakgho...

Jane Street to re-brand as "Jain Street" and sponsor the Indian cricket team....

Boris Johnson to join the America Party? Can run for President unlike the rocket man!