Where Are The Hurricanes? Prediction Market Update [9/10/2025]. It’s the typical peak of the Atlantic hurricane season, but the basin remains calm, and that’s tipping the prices in prediction markets. www.interactivebrokers.com/campus/trade...

There’s a real possibility that Hurricane Erin may still be the only hurricane of the 2025 Atlantic season by the end of next week. As it stands, the market probabilities at ForecastEx appear to be overvaluing the odds of high activity. www.interactivebrokers.com/campus/trade...

I had a great time participating in the @srm360.bsky.social‬ panel on wildfires, their impacts, and how solar geoengineering could mitigate the threat. youtu.be/w38WX530ATA

Do we still expect an active hurricane season? www.interactivebrokers.com/campus/trade...

Hurricane Erin exhibited extreme rapid intensification over the past 24 hours, with wind speeds increasing by 75 mph, from 70 mph at 8:00 AM Friday to 145 mph (Category 4) at 8:00 AM Saturday.

Hurricane Erin update in the context of our climate prediction markets. www.interactivebrokers.com/campus/trade...

Nice overview by @robmayeda.bsky.social of our research regarding the potential for fuel reduction methods, such as prescribed burning and mechanical thinning, to reduce wildfire intensity in a warming California: nbcbayarea.com/news/local/c... Underlying paper: iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1...

Incidentally, I did a little back-of-envelope calculation for folks in my research group.

“Los Angeles is burning, and accelerating hydroclimate whiplash is the key climate connection.” That was the first line of the UCLA press release on a recently-published Nature review paper by @weatherwest.bsky.social et al. ... www.breakthroughjournal.org/p/how-much-d...

Using our attributions methods (adapted from the study below), we calculate that climate change enhanced wildfire intensity over the LA area by 6% between January 7th-11th. This is assuming a 10% difference in wind speed.

Here's the reality about the #LAFires this week: this isn't the first time ANY of these places have burned. Not even close. In 2018, we mapped CA fire history to look at fire frequency across SoCal. Santa Monica Mtns area burns more than anywhere else -- up to once per decade in a given spot. 🧵

I think this is a very crucial piece from my colleague @patricktbrown31.bsky.social raising a constructive warning that researchers studying climate's contribution to extreme weather events must be more holistic, attentive to bias to produce good science + accurately inform policy/the public.

Even as an expert fact-checker on climate claims for Facebook (climatefeedback.org/reviewers/pa...), I support this decision... apnews.com/article/meta...

This is a nice study, largely building on our 2021 work on wind and solar droughts (a main concern for renewable energy systems): Liu et al. (2024): Droughts in Wind and Solar Power: Assessing Climate Model Simulations for a Net‐Zero Energy Future agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/...

Nice David Wallace Wells write up of BTI's @patricktbrown31.bsky.social report on the massive cost of CA wildfires and massive benefits of fuel reduction. www.nytimes.com/live/2024/12...

Human deaths associated with both cold and hot temperatures have been decreasing over time, and people living in warmer climates are much less sensitive to hot temperatures. This should have implications for adaptation research. My lecture for the Johns Hopkins on this topic: youtu.be/Psgfsa3iEX0

In a 2nd Trump presidency, rather than doubling down on the misguided notion that science is an authority that can fully dictate policy, scientists should strive to delineate between strict scientific facts and their political preferences. t.co/napraOW9iY 🧵

This is Part 2 of my two-part post defending economic productivity and capitalism for climate adaptation and mitigation. It’s in response to the Degrowth push to dismantle capitalism and reduce and redistribute global wealth to solve climate change. www.breakthroughjournal.org/p/defending-...

Our new Breakthrough Institute report contends that the World Bank & MDBs have misallocated #ClimateFinance in low & middle-income countries, with too much emphasis on climate change mitigation and not enough on climate adaptation. thebreakthrough.org/issues/energ...

I have a piece out today in The Chronicle of Higher Education on how social and career incentives surrounding researchers cause a good portion of the full story on the climate problem to be left out of the high-impact literature. www.chronicle.com/article/does...