Fresh analysis of massive data set (n=7500+) shows many of the trends that drove the last election have become even more pronounced. pollarastrategicinsights.substack.com/p/the-times-...

Fresh analysis of massive data set (n=7500+) shows many of the trends that drove the last election have become even more pronounced. pollarastrategicinsights.substack.com/p/the-times-...

This is really interesting. And if you zoom in on the strongest emotions, you see: 18-34: 10% excited, 8% angry towards "socialist" politicians 65+: 1% excited 19% angry Young people are also more open to "populists". They're willing to go against the system.

Even though more Canadians are negative than positive towards "populist" politicians, many populist ideas resonate. Full report: www.pollara.com/is-populism-...

Pollara (Oct 2025, n=2702) Pos/Neg towards types of politicians Common sense: 63% / 13% Progressive: 54% / 18% Socialist: 31% / 30% Woke: 30% / 35% Left-wing: 29% / 35% Populist: 22% / 28% Right-wing: 28% / 36% Full report: www.pollara.com/is-populism-...

New substack post with polling on how Canadians feel about politicians who are "left wing", "right wing", and everything in between. pollarastrategicinsights.substack.com/p/broken-wings

Politics in a chart. This should be framed in some poli sci Louvre.

From the PoliSci "Canadian Political Messaging Guide", evidence that voters really don't understand big numbers. % who feel spending $X on infrastructure next year would be "not enough": $100 million: 33% $1 billion: 30% $10 billion: 21% polisci.ca/wp-content/u...

From the PoliSci "Canadian Political Messaging Guide" Support for ditching daylight savings time among Canadians: 71% Support when told Trump supports this: 65% Even completely non-partisan issues are political. polisci.ca/2025/12/02/c...

The FIFA peace prize doesn't have the same cache as the Nobel Peace Prize, but for anyone curious, @Pollara recently found 11% of Canadians believe Trump should win a Nobel Peace Prize. pollarastrategicinsights.substack.com/p/give-peace...

Check out the PoliSci messaging guide comparing the resonance of different commonly-used terms in politics. "Balancing the budget" vs. "eliminating the deficit", "welfare" vs. "social assistance", "cutting red tape" vs. "cutting regulations". And more. polisci.ca/wp-content/u...

New substack post summarizing A/B testing on political language. "Foreign investment" vs "international investment". "Climate change" vs "global warming". "Marijuana" vs "cannabis". pollarastrategicinsights.substack.com/p/say-it-right

I am an endlessly fascinated with this kind of polling/research on political framing. pollarastrategicinsights.substack.com/p/say-it-right

In politics, words matter. Our latest substack post summarizes a recent round of A/B testing that compared the impact of over 20 common political frames. Does “balancing the budget” resonate more or less than “eliminating the deficit”? Find out! pollarastrategicinsights.substack.com/p/say-it-right

The @pollara.bsky.social substack just launched last week, and today we provide exclusive polling on the percentage of Canadians who feel Donald Trump deserves a Nobel Peace Prize - and how they'd feel if he did win. pollarastrategicinsights.substack.com/p/give-peace...

I unpack some exclusive polling on how Canadians feel about NDP leadership candidates.

In our new Substack, David Eby's former Chief of Staff Matt Smith looks at what the latest Pollara poll says about the future of the NDP. pollarastrategicinsights.substack.com/p/the-debate...

The Pollara Substack discusses the latest edition of our 6 year tracking survey on municipal satisfaction. The findings explain why incumbents were shown the door in Calgary + Edmonton. And why change might be coming across BC next year. pollarastrategicinsights.substack.com/p/we-built-t...

Check out and subscribe to the Pollara Substack, where myself and a few colleagues will be regularly analyzing polling and public opinion trends. pollarastrategicinsights.substack.com

Even in an election where under 20,000 people voted, Pollara was able to hit each party's e-day support within the margin of error. Yukon Election Pollara (n=502, Oct 22-26): YP 52%, NDP 34%, Lib 11% Result: YP 51.9%, NDP 37.8%, Lib 10.2% www.pollara.com/yukon-party-...

At #CannabisAtTheCrossroads today, Cannabis Council of Canada (@cannabis_canada) released new C3 - @Pollara poll revealing public support for: reducing hidden #excisetax, new efforts to end #illicitmarket, helping industry to lead/grow #globally. Report: bit.ly/49rOace

Eight-in-ten Canadians are concerned about the future of Canada’s auto industry. Learn more: www.unifor.org/news/all-new...

A fresh Pollara survey shows 74% feel the collapse of Canada's auto sector would have a "devastating" effect on Canada's economy. Moreover, two-thirds of Canadians are considering boycotts of companies that move operations south of the border. www.pollara.com/74-feel-coll...

Check out the latest from Pollara's tracking survey on municipal satisfaction. We're seeing the low satisfaction levels in Alberta play out this municipal election cycle. And with BC into municipal elections next year, the even lower scores there bear watching. www.pollara.com/half-of-cana...

For anyone wanting to revisit Campaign 2025, here's a comprehensive debrief of the federal election that includes data from tracking, election results, and a post-election survey. polisci.ca/2025/09/08/a...

It often pairs nicely with the dozens of times a new PM’s honeymoon is declared to be ending.

Ahh, the "first real test". A "first" all Prime Ministers must face at least 30 or 40 times. I put the collage below together for fun a year into Trudeau's mandate. The "first test" headlines continued for many years afterwards.

Younger and older Canadians experienced the last federal election in completely different ways. Find out where they got their political news from in this Pollara deep dive. www.pollara.com/pollaras-ann...

With Canadians facing heightened fiscal pressures, #notforprofits and #charities need to take strategic action to successfully fundraise. #FundraisingOptimizer is @Pollara's strategic research model to help #notforprofits improve the ROI of their fundraising efforts. Prospectus: bit.ly/46CPEzf

Matt Smith has joined the @Pollara team as Executive Vice President, West! After 2 years as the BC Premier’s Chief of Staff and 2 decades conducting research, Matt deepens the expertise we offer our clients across the West, Canada, and US. More info: bit.ly/457OAAQ #cdnpoli #bcpoli #growing

Hey @thebeaverton.com You're more trusted than Fox News and the Rebel. Net Trust (trustworthy - untrustworthy): The Beaverton -2 Rebel Media -7 Fox News -27 www.pollara.com/pollaras-ann...

Pollara's annual Trust in Media study is out! Find out where Canadians get their news from, and how much they trust different media outlets.

The latest Rage Index finds that Donald Trump has become an "anger lightning rod". Trump is getting the blame for a lot of the frustrations that would normally be directed towards federal and provincial governments, leading to declining anger towards them.

Pollara is visiting the archives for our 40th anniversary. This month, we find support for immigration significantly below levels recorded back in 2002.

Pollara (n=2511 UK ADULTS, May 2025) Net impressions of different countries among British people: Canada +78 Japan +61 Germany +60 France +50 Ukraine +47 India -1 USA -3 China -24 Russia -63 www.pollara.com/as-canada-us...

Canadians are more negative than positive towards Narendra Modi. Check out full poll results to see how they feel about other world leaders. www.pollara.com/as-canada-us...

Check out my podcast chat with Julia Pennella on Alberta separatism and the evolution of polling: www.buzzsprout.com/2446728/epis...

No election on the horizon? No problem. We put out polling on the King earlier this week and now we've got polling on the new Pope!

More coverage of @pollara.bsky.social's poll on how Canadians feel about the monarchy. You can read the full findings here: www.pollara.com/canadians-wa...

Canadians believe King Charles reading the throne speech today will do more to underscore than undermine Canadian sovereignty. www.pollara.com/canadians-wa...

Support - Oppose for keeping Monarchy, by vote: Lib +22 CPC -1 NDP +7 BQ -73 As conservative parties become more populist and anti-establishment, we're seeing a shift partisan divide in sentiment towards institutions like the crown.

When Charles ascended to the throne, Canadians were split on him. If they'd turned on him, that could have fuelled a movement to dump the crown. Instead, they've warmed to him. He's not as beloved as his mother was, but Canadians now feel positive to him by 2:1 ratio.

NEW: ⁦‪@Pollara‬⁩ poll finds a Trump bump has turned the Crown frowns upside down. As King Charles arrives this week, support for the monarchy is rising in Canada. #cdnpoli www.thestar.com/politics/fed...

Post-recounts, the Liberals finish just 60 votes away from a majority government. A reminder that every vote matters. (41 back in Nunavut + 12 back in Terra Nova + 4 back in Windsor + 3 votes to win each riding by 1)

"They suggested [...] residents of a breakaway Alberta republic would still keep their Canadian passports and Canada Pension Plan entitlements." Danielle Smith's Alberta Pension Plan is so unpopular, even the Alberta separatists don't want to touch it.

I wouldn't expect a big policy outcome in Carney's DC visit today. But it's hugely important for him from a public opinion perspective. He was elected to deal with Trump, and this is the first time voters will SEE him in that role. First impressions tend to stick.

As the polling shows, "boots not suits" was a real thing, and might partly explain some of the divergent results in different parts of Ontario. One plausible theory would be white collar NDP vote broke more Liberal and blue collar NDP vote broke more Conservative.

For those wondering, the Conservatives were 11,826 votes away from winning the most seats. They were 37,168 votes away from winning a majority. 5 additional Brampton ridings are on that "majority map", so expect a big focus there in coming years.

Some riding and region-specific results using the Elections Canada totals as they sit now. This could be a longish thread because there are so many interesting results. 🧵

Are third parties dying in Canada? The NDP, Bloc, and Greens were all dealt massive blows on Monday, as the Liberals and Conservatives both got 40%+ of the vote for the first time since 1930. And consider recent provincial dynamics: (thread)