For anyone wanting to revisit Campaign 2025, here's a comprehensive debrief of the federal election that includes data from tracking, election results, and a post-election survey. polisci.ca/2025/09/08/a...

It often pairs nicely with the dozens of times a new PM’s honeymoon is declared to be ending.

Ahh, the "first real test". A "first" all Prime Ministers must face at least 30 or 40 times. I put the collage below together for fun a year into Trudeau's mandate. The "first test" headlines continued for many years afterwards.

Younger and older Canadians experienced the last federal election in completely different ways. Find out where they got their political news from in this Pollara deep dive. www.pollara.com/pollaras-ann...

With Canadians facing heightened fiscal pressures, #notforprofits and #charities need to take strategic action to successfully fundraise. #FundraisingOptimizer is @Pollara's strategic research model to help #notforprofits improve the ROI of their fundraising efforts. Prospectus: bit.ly/46CPEzf

Matt Smith has joined the @Pollara team as Executive Vice President, West! After 2 years as the BC Premier’s Chief of Staff and 2 decades conducting research, Matt deepens the expertise we offer our clients across the West, Canada, and US. More info: bit.ly/457OAAQ #cdnpoli #bcpoli #growing

Hey @thebeaverton.com You're more trusted than Fox News and the Rebel. Net Trust (trustworthy - untrustworthy): The Beaverton -2 Rebel Media -7 Fox News -27 www.pollara.com/pollaras-ann...

Pollara's annual Trust in Media study is out! Find out where Canadians get their news from, and how much they trust different media outlets.

The latest Rage Index finds that Donald Trump has become an "anger lightning rod". Trump is getting the blame for a lot of the frustrations that would normally be directed towards federal and provincial governments, leading to declining anger towards them.

Pollara is visiting the archives for our 40th anniversary. This month, we find support for immigration significantly below levels recorded back in 2002.

Pollara (n=2511 UK ADULTS, May 2025) Net impressions of different countries among British people: Canada +78 Japan +61 Germany +60 France +50 Ukraine +47 India -1 USA -3 China -24 Russia -63 www.pollara.com/as-canada-us...

Canadians are more negative than positive towards Narendra Modi. Check out full poll results to see how they feel about other world leaders. www.pollara.com/as-canada-us...

Check out my podcast chat with Julia Pennella on Alberta separatism and the evolution of polling: www.buzzsprout.com/2446728/epis...

No election on the horizon? No problem. We put out polling on the King earlier this week and now we've got polling on the new Pope!

More coverage of @pollara.bsky.social's poll on how Canadians feel about the monarchy. You can read the full findings here: www.pollara.com/canadians-wa...

Canadians believe King Charles reading the throne speech today will do more to underscore than undermine Canadian sovereignty. www.pollara.com/canadians-wa...

Support - Oppose for keeping Monarchy, by vote: Lib +22 CPC -1 NDP +7 BQ -73 As conservative parties become more populist and anti-establishment, we're seeing a shift partisan divide in sentiment towards institutions like the crown.

When Charles ascended to the throne, Canadians were split on him. If they'd turned on him, that could have fuelled a movement to dump the crown. Instead, they've warmed to him. He's not as beloved as his mother was, but Canadians now feel positive to him by 2:1 ratio.

NEW: ⁦‪@Pollara‬⁩ poll finds a Trump bump has turned the Crown frowns upside down. As King Charles arrives this week, support for the monarchy is rising in Canada. #cdnpoli www.thestar.com/politics/fed...

Post-recounts, the Liberals finish just 60 votes away from a majority government. A reminder that every vote matters. (41 back in Nunavut + 12 back in Terra Nova + 4 back in Windsor + 3 votes to win each riding by 1)

"They suggested [...] residents of a breakaway Alberta republic would still keep their Canadian passports and Canada Pension Plan entitlements." Danielle Smith's Alberta Pension Plan is so unpopular, even the Alberta separatists don't want to touch it.

I wouldn't expect a big policy outcome in Carney's DC visit today. But it's hugely important for him from a public opinion perspective. He was elected to deal with Trump, and this is the first time voters will SEE him in that role. First impressions tend to stick.

As the polling shows, "boots not suits" was a real thing, and might partly explain some of the divergent results in different parts of Ontario. One plausible theory would be white collar NDP vote broke more Liberal and blue collar NDP vote broke more Conservative.

For those wondering, the Conservatives were 11,826 votes away from winning the most seats. They were 37,168 votes away from winning a majority. 5 additional Brampton ridings are on that "majority map", so expect a big focus there in coming years.

Some riding and region-specific results using the Elections Canada totals as they sit now. This could be a longish thread because there are so many interesting results. 🧵

Are third parties dying in Canada? The NDP, Bloc, and Greens were all dealt massive blows on Monday, as the Liberals and Conservatives both got 40%+ of the vote for the first time since 1930. And consider recent provincial dynamics: (thread)

The Liberals finish just 611 votes away from a majority.

Hogan won this one on the strength of an amazing local campaign and an army of loyal volunteers. He's smart, funny, gets policy, gets politics, gets comms. Potential political star if Carney let's him shine.

This election is only fourth time in history that a party is re-elected after a leadership change. Trudeau-to-Carney Chretien-to-Martin Pearson-to-Trudeau King-to-St.Laurent

By most conventional metrics, you'd assume Poilievre's leadership is safe - won the leadership with a massive mandate, seat gains, popular vote gains. But we've seen over the past month that his vindictive style has made enemies. He's going to face challenges.

Looks like a rough night for Liberals in some multicultural communities. Losing a Brampton seat, Calgary McKnight, and dramatically reduced margins across Peel + Surrey suggests struggles with South Asian vote. Losing heavily Chinese ridings in Richmond + Markham they picked up in 2021.

I don't know how Tim Louis makes it through election nights: 2015: lost by 251 votes 2019: won by 365 votes 2021: won by 575 votes 2025: leading by 368 votes

The shifting electoral map is crazy: Carney won 16 seats that Trudeau didn't win in any of his 3 elections. But lost 11 seats that Trudeau won all 3 times. (and another 7 they won in 2021)

The last time the Liberals and Conservatives both got over 40% of the popular vote in an election was 1930.

We talk about what an election with Trump would look like, different weighing techniques, how parties are identifying target ridings, and how parties gauge debate reaction.

Net Favourables: Crosby: +51% NHL: +31% McDavid: +34% Gretzky: +2% Pollara / Apr 1, 2025 / n=2001 / Online

Donald Trump is the entity driving public opinion more than anything else in Canada today. Positive sentiment towards the United States is down 29 points. Canadians now hate Elon Musk. The Liberals are back from the dead. And Canadians have even soured on a Canadian legend because of Trump.

Pollara (Mar 24-Apr 1 2025, n=2001) Feelings towards Wayne Gretzky Liberal voters: 23% favourable / 49% unfavourable CPC voters: 53% favourable / 19% unfavourable www.pollara.com/canadians-so...

Fresh @pollara.bsky.social survey data on how Canadians feel about Wayne Gretzky in today's @thestar.com.

This will really help reassure those people who worry he sounds too much like Trump.

This is fantastic. Corey is a super smart guy who gets politics and comms, cares about policy. He'd be a big addition to the Liberal caucus. Confed is winnable at current support levels. Corey ran the 2015 Matt Grant campaign in the same riding that same oh so close to winning.

This would be a big get for Liberals. The riding projects as a 3-way Lib-CPC-NDP heat at 338, but with lack of an NDP incumbent, it seems likely progressive vote would fall behind Weaver if he was on the ballot.

The Liberal campaign should offer to cover the cost of a Danielle Smith media tour for the next 36 days.

This is a riding to watch. Fuhr surprised a lot of people (I'll admit, myself included - thought he was in play, but he won handily) with his showing in 2015. He did it by coalescing progressives behind him in Kelowna. In the current environment, he could do it again.

Find out how much different leadership traits are associated with Mark Carney and Pierre Poilievre. #cndpoli buff.ly/NrG9hBX

Jon Cryer knows the polling to trust: Pollara. #cdnpoli

Fresh polling by Pollara on how leadership traits are associated with Carney and Poilievre. Carney has a big lead on competence, handling difficult situations, dealing with Trump, and the economy.

Our latest poll looks at how Liberal voters would feel about all four Liberal leadership candidates becoming the next party leader. #lpcldr #cndpoli #cdnpoli buff.ly/PZufqav

In @Pollara's latest #TrumpTracker, three quarters of Canadians support removing American #alcohol products from Canadian #liquor stores. Read more in our free report: buff.ly/yIrUSVD #cdnpoli #elbowsup #tariffs

We asked about the best and worst parts of Trudeau's legacy. Positives: 1. Marijuana legalization 2. Dental care 3. $10 a day childcare 4. COVID vaccines 5. CERB Negatives: 1. Increased immigration 2. Large deficits 3. Carbon tax 4. Inflation 5. Housing prices increased Full list: