Latest YouTube show featuring Dan Arnold from Pollara. And yes, the separatists are already in the comments. Have at 'em. #abpoli #cdnpoli www.youtube.com/watch?v=vfil...

Biggest declines in CPC vote in byelections, since 2015 (35 total byelections): 1. Terrebonne (2026) -14.8% 2. Scarborough SW (2026) -12.2% 3. University Rosedale (2026) -11.1% 4. Lac Saint Jean (2017) -8.3% 5. Toronto Centre (2020) -5.7%

Pollara (n=3200 Albertans, Mar 16-25) Sentiment to Politicians in Alberta Carney: Pos 42%, Neg 34% Poilievre: Pos 42%, Neg 34% www.pollara.com/support-for-...

The Pollara Substack unpacks the potential for support for Alberta separatism to change throughout 2026. pollarastrategicinsights.substack.com/p/should-i-s...

"Even though the winning conditions are seemingly not there today, support for separatism in Alberta is meaningfully higher now than it was pre-Trump, higher than it was when “F Trudeau” bumper stickers represented 8% of Alberta’s GDP." pollarastrategicinsights.substack.com/p/should-i-s...

For those looking on a primer on the state of the NDP, Matt Smith digs into the data. What's their vote universe? How do the leadership candidates resonate? Do NDP voters want them to bring this government down? pollarastrategicinsights.substack.com/p/a-prairies...

New post unpacking fresh polling on how Canadians feel about Carney's first year in power - and why the need to show change is more important for Carney than most newly elected PMs. pollarastrategicinsights.substack.com/p/a-change-w...

What's behind the rise in federal Liberal support in #Alberta? The answers are in Pollara's Dan Arnold's analysis at The @Pollara Substack: pollarastrategicinsights.substack.com/p/wind-of-ch... #ABpoli #CDNpoli

We've quantified the long-standing media narrative that Carney's gvt feels like a "PC gvt". There's some public agreement - but the people most likely to agree are those who have the least experience with actual PC governments: young people, Quebecers, and British Columbians.

New substack post where I look at what’s causing the rise of federal Liberal support in Alberta and what ridings the Liberals might realistically be targeting. Consider this a “Calgary Grit” throwback. pollarastrategicinsights.substack.com/p/wind-of-ch...

Pollara (Feb 1-2, n=1200) Did Carney's Davos speech change the way you feel about him? A lot more favourable 31% A bit more favourable 28% No change 29% A bit less favourable 2% A lot less favourable 8% www.pollara.com/six-in-ten-c...

We've got polling on Carney's Davos speech. Where did people hear about? (social media, word-of-mouth, news reports, etc) And did it change how they feel about the Prime Minister? Click the link for the full results: www.pollara.com/six-in-ten-c...

A new pollster panel on The Writ podcast with @ericgrenier.bsky.social. We had a great discussion on the NDP's crossroads (can they get back blue collar votes?), why Carney's favourables are rising, and why Poilievre should heed Eminem's guidance. youtu.be/zZWRLuvbLsQ?...

Kingsbury ties to the hundreths of a point and loses gold on tie-break. Grondin misses gold by 0.03 seconds. These athletes train their whole lives and then it really does come down to inches.

A new pollster panel on The Writ podcast with @ericgrenier.bsky.social. We had a great discussion on the NDP's crossroads (can they get back blue collar votes?), why Carney's favourables are rising, and why Poilievre should heed Eminem's guidance. youtu.be/zZWRLuvbLsQ?...

Pollara (Feb 1-2, n=1200) Did you read, see or hear anything about PM Carney's Davos speech? Watched full speech 18% Saw clips 40% Read it 18% News reports 29% Social media 16% Talked about it 12% TOTAL: 79% heard about it www.pollara.com/six-in-ten-c...

I've got a new post up that unpacks fresh polling on how Canadians consumed Carney's Davos speech - did they read it, see it on socials, watch news reports on it? And what does this tell us about how political stories go viral in 2026? pollarastrategicinsights.substack.com/p/heard-it-t...

I've got a new post up that unpacks fresh polling on how Canadians consumed Carney's Davos speech - did they read it, see it on socials, watch news reports on it? And what does this tell us about how political stories go viral in 2026? pollarastrategicinsights.substack.com/p/heard-it-t...

The latest on Pollara's Substack unpacks exclusive survey data to understand blue collar workers. We find the Conservatives leading by 29% among blue collar workers and ask why that is, and what progressive parties can do to win tem back? pollarastrategicinsights.substack.com/p/blue-colla...

Check out our deep dive analysis on blue collar workers. As the chart below shows, they're more drawn to leaders who have worked hard to get to where they are and who understand what regular people are going through. pollarastrategicinsights.substack.com/p/blue-colla...

Our deep dive on blue collar workers finds many Canadians still see the NDP as the party that does the most to help blue collar workers - but very few blue collar workers themselves feel this way. Read the full analysis: pollarastrategicinsights.substack.com/p/blue-colla...

This is one of the reasons you should be following the outstanding @pollara.bsky.social substack newsletter penned by the equally outstanding @calgarygrit.bsky.social. pollarastrategicinsights.substack.com/p/blue-colla...

Danielle Smith booted 2 MLAs from her caucus - one who didn't support her budget and one who wanted a probe into alleged ethical lapses. Yet she won't "police" whether or not her MLAs want to break up Canada? It's a little odd that she's chosen to be indifferent this time, given the stakes.

I’ve written a deep dive on blue collar workers and how progressive parties can better connect with them. Based on polling - who are blue collar workers, what do they look for in leaders, what matters to them? pollarastrategicinsights.substack.com/p/blue-colla...

Given recent developments, the China/US question could be a major hinge point in the next election. Liberal voters are -72 sentiment towards US vs. -13 among CPC voters. The gap isn't as wide on China (Lib -29, CPC -37) but I could see that widening in wake of Carney's trip.

Pollara (Dec 2025, n=3800) % who would vote for their province to separate, by provincial vote intent: MB NDP 1% MB PC 18% SK NDP 8% Sask Party 31% AB NDP 4% UCP 40% BC NDP 4% BC Con 21% www.pollara.com/western-alie...

Canadians are feeling better about many inflationary pressures (groceries, gas, housing) BUT @pollara.bsky.social finds one of the most pessimistic macro outlooks in 31 years of tracking, as the Sword of Damocles hangs over Canada in the form of Trump’s economic policy.

After 31 years of continuous annual tracking, Pollara's 2026 #EconomicOutlook report sees Canadians expressing some of highest levels of #economic #pessimism we’ve ever recorded - largely due to #stress about US #economy and #tariffs. Toronto Star article: bit.ly/44VJlFk. Free report: bit.ly/3N8dzyQ

The 31st edition of Pollara's annual economic survey finds one of the bleakest outlooks ever. 61% expect the Canadian economy to worsen in 2026 59% expect Canada's job market to worsen 59% expect the global economy to worsen 65% expect the US economy to worsen www.pollara.com/economic-out...

If you're looking for some hot polling stats to pull out at your New Year's Eve Parties tonight, check out Pollara's poll on what Canadians paid attention to, what made them happy, and what made them angry in 2025.

Pollara's "2025 in review" poll measured how much Canadians heard about different news stories. 46% of Canadians never heard about "6-7". We're jealous of them. www.pollara.com/year-end-rag...

OK. Blue Jays. Let's. Play. Ball. The Blue Jays World Series run was the news story that made Canadians happiest in 2025 - in every part of the country. www.pollara.com/year-end-rag...

The @pollara.bsky.social 2025 year in review poll on what news stories Canadians followed in 2025, what made them happiest, and what made them angriest. Why did Liberals pay more attention to the new Pope? How many people are aware of 6-7? pollarastrategicinsights.substack.com/p/tonight-we...

Fresh analysis of massive data set (n=7500+) shows many of the trends that drove the last election have become even more pronounced. pollarastrategicinsights.substack.com/p/the-times-...

Fresh analysis of massive data set (n=7500+) shows many of the trends that drove the last election have become even more pronounced. pollarastrategicinsights.substack.com/p/the-times-...

This is really interesting. And if you zoom in on the strongest emotions, you see: 18-34: 10% excited, 8% angry towards "socialist" politicians 65+: 1% excited 19% angry Young people are also more open to "populists". They're willing to go against the system.

Even though more Canadians are negative than positive towards "populist" politicians, many populist ideas resonate. Full report: www.pollara.com/is-populism-...

Pollara (Oct 2025, n=2702) Pos/Neg towards types of politicians Common sense: 63% / 13% Progressive: 54% / 18% Socialist: 31% / 30% Woke: 30% / 35% Left-wing: 29% / 35% Populist: 22% / 28% Right-wing: 28% / 36% Full report: www.pollara.com/is-populism-...

New substack post with polling on how Canadians feel about politicians who are "left wing", "right wing", and everything in between. pollarastrategicinsights.substack.com/p/broken-wings

Politics in a chart. This should be framed in some poli sci Louvre.

From the PoliSci "Canadian Political Messaging Guide", evidence that voters really don't understand big numbers. % who feel spending $X on infrastructure next year would be "not enough": $100 million: 33% $1 billion: 30% $10 billion: 21% polisci.ca/wp-content/u...

From the PoliSci "Canadian Political Messaging Guide" Support for ditching daylight savings time among Canadians: 71% Support when told Trump supports this: 65% Even completely non-partisan issues are political. polisci.ca/2025/12/02/c...

The FIFA peace prize doesn't have the same cache as the Nobel Peace Prize, but for anyone curious, @Pollara recently found 11% of Canadians believe Trump should win a Nobel Peace Prize. pollarastrategicinsights.substack.com/p/give-peace...

Check out the PoliSci messaging guide comparing the resonance of different commonly-used terms in politics. "Balancing the budget" vs. "eliminating the deficit", "welfare" vs. "social assistance", "cutting red tape" vs. "cutting regulations". And more. polisci.ca/wp-content/u...

New substack post summarizing A/B testing on political language. "Foreign investment" vs "international investment". "Climate change" vs "global warming". "Marijuana" vs "cannabis". pollarastrategicinsights.substack.com/p/say-it-right

I am an endlessly fascinated with this kind of polling/research on political framing. pollarastrategicinsights.substack.com/p/say-it-right

In politics, words matter. Our latest substack post summarizes a recent round of A/B testing that compared the impact of over 20 common political frames. Does “balancing the budget” resonate more or less than “eliminating the deficit”? Find out! pollarastrategicinsights.substack.com/p/say-it-right

The @pollara.bsky.social substack just launched last week, and today we provide exclusive polling on the percentage of Canadians who feel Donald Trump deserves a Nobel Peace Prize - and how they'd feel if he did win. pollarastrategicinsights.substack.com/p/give-peace...

I unpack some exclusive polling on how Canadians feel about NDP leadership candidates.

In our new Substack, David Eby's former Chief of Staff Matt Smith looks at what the latest Pollara poll says about the future of the NDP. pollarastrategicinsights.substack.com/p/the-debate...