🚨Working Paper Alert! "Drivers of New Business Creation in the OECD: The Role of Education and Taxation" ✍️ @theiiiman.bsky.social M. Carmen Blanco-Arana & Ana J. Cisneros-Ruiz Find out how education and taxation drive new business creation in OECD countries 🌍: www.ifo.de/en/cesifo/pu...

Stock and sovereign returns linkages: time-varying causality and extreme-quantile determinants. Forthcoming, International Review of Financial Analysis. António Afonso, José Alves, Wojciech Grabowski, Sofia Monteiro.

www.economist.com/briefing/201... Back in 2010 the Economist was the case for tax cuts: "A paper by António Afonso of the European Central Bank and Davide Furceri of the OECD found that increases in government spending as a proportion of GDP tended to be correlated with slower economic growth."

Happy to be in the World's top 1%! Elsevier Data Repository, Aug 2025. "Updated science-wide author databases of standardized citation indicators" elsevier.digitalcommonsdata.com/datasets/btc...

www.ifo.de/en/cesifo/pu... A discretionary positive shock to the primary balance leads to a decrease in real government debt, a result consistent with a Monetary Dominant regime and sustainable fiscal practices.

14th UECE Conference on Economic and Financial Adjustments. Fri, Jul 17, 2026. ISEG. Lisbon. uece2.rc.iseg.ulisboa.pt/events/2026/... Keynote: Roel Beetsma

www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti... António Afonso, Francisco Gomes Pereira. "An expansionary monetary policy stance, following an increase in the debt-to-GDP ratio, leads to lower primary balances."

lnkd.in/dkjH8fbV "Greater skewness is associated with higher sovereign bond yields and higher short-term interest rates. In contrast, an increase in debt concentration tends to reduce both sovereign bond yields and short-term interest rates."

lnkd.in/deQA9iiP Copernicus proposed a single unifying theory: the Quantity Theory of Money. In his 1526 tract, Copernicus identified the single common cause of all inflation as the general increase in the quantity of coins minted from any given metal basis.

Investment dynamics and economic growth: a robust VAR analysis of public and private investments across 18 advanced economies: Applied Economics: Vol 0, No 0 - Get Access www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

António Afonso, Jorge Ferreira. rem.rc.iseg.ulisboa.pt/wps/ "With 1,368 euro-denominated sovereign bonds issued between Q1:2018 and Q1:2022 in 19 Eurozone countries, we find that the PEPP was more effective in low-debt countries, but its effects diminished with higher debt levels."

www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti... Antonio Afonso, José Alves, Serena Ionta "With local projection methods, we find that in high-debt and low-sustainability regime, ”fiscal inflation” where monetary tightening raises prices instead of containing them."

"The Paradox of Macroprudential Policy and Sovereign Risk", forthcoming. António Afonso, André Teixeira. "Macroprudential policy lowers sovereign risk. The effect diminishes with excessive regulation or high debt. Paradoxically, macroprudential policy may increase public debt."

“Monetary policy surprises and fiscal sustainability: the case of the Euro Area” forthcoming, 2025. António Afonso, José Alves, Serena Ionta. In the Euro Area, Germany, Italy, Portugal, in Ricardian regimes, output and prices contract after monetary tightening.

“Monetary policy surprise shocks under different fiscal regimes: a panel analysis of the Euro Area” forthcoming, 2025, JIMF. António Afonso, José Alves, Serena Ionta. "From 2001Q4 to 2021Q4 for 19 Euro Area countries, in the high-debt, low-sustainability regime, monetary tightening raises prices."

2024 REM - Research in Economics and Mathematics (rem.rc.iseg.ulisboa.pt) Young Researcher Award. Congratulations to the students Gabriel Pereira, Tomás Kapandoglu, Maryam Moshkelgosha, Fernando Reis, and to the supervisors, Isabel Proença, Raquel Bernardino, Maria João Guedes, Luís Costa

⏰ Working Paper Alert "Compliance with Fiscal Sustainability and the Euro" ✏️ @theiiiman.bsky.social & Catarina Farinha Miranda Does adopting the euro contribute to fiscal sustainability in the Eurozone? 📚Find out here: www.cesifo.org/en/publicati...

ISEG PhD in Economics. www.linkedin.com/posts/iseg-p...

20000 citations in Google Scholar! scholar.google.com/citations?us...

RHEINMETALL AG stock price spiking (Deutsche Börse): war economy?!

2025 ISEG Master in Monetary and Financial Economics iseg.ulisboa.pt/study/master... Yes, you can still enroll!

"Does fiscal policy boost economic growth in the LDCs? The role of fiscal ratings and key fiscal variables", forthcoming (lnkd.in/d66ScYAN) A. Afonso, M. Blanco-Arana. Fiscal policy rating positively enhance economic growth in LDCs, and government effectiveness positively influences growth.

Testimonials of students/former students: António Martins, Video: lnkd.in/df92-p_Q Philemon Opoku, Video. lnkd.in/dbcUmCTY Zoë Venter, Video: lnkd.in/d8g_t7hK Joana Sousa Leite, Video: lnkd.in/dvAdS7iZ Eduardo Sá Fortes, Video; lnkd.in/dsByD-_k

REM WP 0371-2025 rem.rc.iseg.ulisboa.pt/wps/. António Afonso, Catarina Miranda. "COMPLIANCE WITH FISCAL SUSTAINABILITY AND THE EURO". We find that euro membership has decreased the average responsiveness of primary balances to debt shocks as compared to the period before the euro.

ISEG PhD in Economics, thesis defense "Essays on tax policies for developing economies", 05.03.2025. Congratulations Lucas Menescal. António Afonso, Joao Madeira, Manuel Mota Freitas Martins, José Alves.

ISEG PhD in Economics, thesis defense "Essays in Monetary and Fiscal Policies", 27.02.2025. Congratulations Francisco Gomes Pereira. António Afonso, Diana Bonfim, Piotr Stanek, José Alves.

inomics.com/conference/1... Keynote speaker: George Hondroyiannis (Bank of Greece; Harokopio University of Athens). 31 May 2025, deadline for submissions (to [email protected])

ABS 4*, ABS 4 authors having lunch at ISEG, during the (not alarming) earthquake in Lisbon: 17.02.2024, 1:20pm. Research never stops! Luis Catao, António Afonso (@theiiiman.bsky.social), Pedro Gomes (@pedromaiagomespt.bsky.social)

António Afonso, José Alves, José Coelho, Jamel Saadaoui. REM WP0369-2025. rem.rc.iseg.ulisboa.pt/wps/ "Peripheral countries have lower sustainability; non-Eurozone countries have higher sustainability; after the 2008 GFC, fiscal and external sustainability improved"

World Ranking Top 2% Scientists (Aug 2024 update), Stanford University, Scopus. elsevier.digitalcommonsdata.com/datasets/btc...

Checking via IDEAS, these are the main topics of my work: ideas.repec.org/top/

RePEc, IDEAS, January 2025 ranking. ideas.repec.org/e/paf1.html

🚨Working Paper Alert! "Private Investment and Public Investment: Total Rates of Return and Global Balances in the OECD" ✍️ @theiiiman.bsky.social , José Alves & Sofia Monteiro Find out more about public and private investment returns: www.cesifo.org/en/publicati...

REM WP 0366-2025. "Stock and sovereign returns linkages: time-varying causality and extreme-quantile determinants". António Afonso, José Alves, Wojciech Grabowski, Sofia Monteiro. rem.rc.iseg.ulisboa.pt/wps/

"Macro rates of return of both public and private investment positively contribute to fiscal sustainability and public investment also displays the same positive effect on external sustainability." António Afonso, José Alves, Sofia Monteiro. cesifo.org/node/84020

sites.google.com/view/aafonso... A streamlined site.

António Afonso, Ana Patricia Montes Caparrós, José M. Domínguez. "A dynamic efficiency analysis for tax revenues in OECD countries" 2025, Empirica. rdcu.be/d6yhu

"Private investment and public investment: total rates of return and global balances in the OECD" António Afonso, José Alves, Sofia Monteiro. REM WP 0363-2025. rem.rc.iseg.ulisboa.pt/wps/ "Rates of return of public and private investment contribute to fiscal sustainability"

Giacometti Man, wishing happy New Year to all of you. Kunsthaus Zürich.

Joyeux Noël