Last slots. ISEG MMFE (www.iseg.ulisboa.pt/en/study/mas...): next step in your career. Employers recognize to graduates a strong background in quantitative methods, macro, monetary and financial economics. Half mandatory courses; half chosen by the student. 1/3-1/2 international students.

Happy to have one of the most cited papers in FinanzArchiv, one of the world's oldest professional journals in public finance, founded in 1884. www.mohrsiebeck.com/en/journal/f...

Dornbusch, Rudiger. 1976. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics." Journal of Political Economy, 84: 1161-1176. ➡️ We get 90% of AI in this classical paper, even before AI was available!

Some past-current research topics.

"Impact of Sovereign Debt Maturity on Fiscal Sustainability", forthcoming 2026 [ABS 3; ABDC B] António Afonso, José Alves, Oļegs Matvejevs, Olegs Tkacevs. 🌀 19 developed countries (1995-20): gov debt with maturity above 10y reduces fiscal responsiveness. 🌀QE played a key role.

14th UECE Conference on Economic and Financial Adjustments. Fri, Jul 17, 2026. ISEG. Lisbon. uece2.rc.iseg.ulisboa.pt/.../2026/efa... Keynote: Roel Beetsma.

⏳ Deadline approaching: submit your public finance paper by February 15 and join us at #IIPF2026 in Lisbon, Portugal, in August! What to expect: keynotes, paper sessions on various topics, social program, networking. Further info at www.iseg.ulisboa.pt/en/event/iipf/ and www.iipf.org/cng.htm

ISEG PhD in Economics (www.iseg.ulisboa.pt/en/study/phd...) thesis defense. Congratulations Jorge Braga Ferreira. 16.01.2026. António Afonso, Frederico Silva Leal, José Alves, Manuel Martins

Happy new Year from Lisbon.

Portuguese academy (although this might occur also in other countries) seems to have a serious problem: strongly resists the meritocratic recognition of scientific quality. Indeed, the results of academic competitions often depend on webs of interests, favors, factions, and political connections.

iipf.org/cng.htm The 82nd Annual Congress of the International Institute of Public Finance (@iipf.bsky.social) will be held at ISEG Lisbon, Portugal, from August 24-26, 2026. Local organization: António Afonso, José Alves and João Pereira dos Santos (all ISEG Lisbon).

ISEG PhD Economics (lnkd.in/gwuCTJ_K) Advanced education with high level of technical and scientific qualification. Enabling an international career in economics and in highly qualified roles in the public/private sector. Acceptance rate: 35%. International students; 55%.

ISEG MMFE (lnkd.in/dgcP4B2v): next step in your career. Employers recognize to graduates a strong background in quantitative methods, macro, monetary and financial economics. Half of the courses are mandatory; half chosen by the student. 1/3-1/2 international students.

Papers (lnkd.in/dTENAgs9) of this SI were presented at the 10th UECE Conference on Economic and Financial Adjustments (lnkd.in/ekprsCaB), ISEG – Lisbon School of Economics and Management, 22-Jul-2022. Editors: António Afonso (guest editor); Jan-Egbert Sturm.

14th UECE Conference on Economic and Financial Adjustments. Fri, Jul 17, 2026. ISEG. Lisbon. uece2.rc.iseg.ulisboa.pt/.../2026/efa... Keynote: Roel Beetsma.

New 3-bedroom flat, 150 sq m, Avenidas Novas, Lisbon, 1500000 EUR. New 3-bedroom flat, 164 sq m, Porte de Namur, Brussels, 1000000 EUR. Price in Lisbon is 50% higher than in Brussels. Per capita income in Brussels is 100% higher than in Lisbon.

🚨Working Paper Alert! "Drivers of New Business Creation in the OECD: The Role of Education and Taxation" ✍️ @theiiiman.bsky.social M. Carmen Blanco-Arana & Ana J. Cisneros-Ruiz Find out how education and taxation drive new business creation in OECD countries 🌍: www.ifo.de/en/cesifo/pu...

Stock and sovereign returns linkages: time-varying causality and extreme-quantile determinants. Forthcoming, International Review of Financial Analysis. António Afonso, José Alves, Wojciech Grabowski, Sofia Monteiro.

www.economist.com/briefing/201... Back in 2010 the Economist was the case for tax cuts: "A paper by António Afonso of the European Central Bank and Davide Furceri of the OECD found that increases in government spending as a proportion of GDP tended to be correlated with slower economic growth."

Happy to be in the World's top 1%! Elsevier Data Repository, Aug 2025. "Updated science-wide author databases of standardized citation indicators" elsevier.digitalcommonsdata.com/datasets/btc...

www.ifo.de/en/cesifo/pu... A discretionary positive shock to the primary balance leads to a decrease in real government debt, a result consistent with a Monetary Dominant regime and sustainable fiscal practices.

14th UECE Conference on Economic and Financial Adjustments. Fri, Jul 17, 2026. ISEG. Lisbon. uece2.rc.iseg.ulisboa.pt/events/2026/... Keynote: Roel Beetsma

www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti... António Afonso, Francisco Gomes Pereira. "An expansionary monetary policy stance, following an increase in the debt-to-GDP ratio, leads to lower primary balances."

lnkd.in/dkjH8fbV "Greater skewness is associated with higher sovereign bond yields and higher short-term interest rates. In contrast, an increase in debt concentration tends to reduce both sovereign bond yields and short-term interest rates."

lnkd.in/deQA9iiP Copernicus proposed a single unifying theory: the Quantity Theory of Money. In his 1526 tract, Copernicus identified the single common cause of all inflation as the general increase in the quantity of coins minted from any given metal basis.

Investment dynamics and economic growth: a robust VAR analysis of public and private investments across 18 advanced economies: Applied Economics: Vol 0, No 0 - Get Access www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

António Afonso, Jorge Ferreira. rem.rc.iseg.ulisboa.pt/wps/ "With 1,368 euro-denominated sovereign bonds issued between Q1:2018 and Q1:2022 in 19 Eurozone countries, we find that the PEPP was more effective in low-debt countries, but its effects diminished with higher debt levels."

www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti... Antonio Afonso, José Alves, Serena Ionta "With local projection methods, we find that in high-debt and low-sustainability regime, ”fiscal inflation” where monetary tightening raises prices instead of containing them."

"The Paradox of Macroprudential Policy and Sovereign Risk", forthcoming. António Afonso, André Teixeira. "Macroprudential policy lowers sovereign risk. The effect diminishes with excessive regulation or high debt. Paradoxically, macroprudential policy may increase public debt."

“Monetary policy surprises and fiscal sustainability: the case of the Euro Area” forthcoming, 2025. António Afonso, José Alves, Serena Ionta. In the Euro Area, Germany, Italy, Portugal, in Ricardian regimes, output and prices contract after monetary tightening.

“Monetary policy surprise shocks under different fiscal regimes: a panel analysis of the Euro Area” forthcoming, 2025, JIMF. António Afonso, José Alves, Serena Ionta. "From 2001Q4 to 2021Q4 for 19 Euro Area countries, in the high-debt, low-sustainability regime, monetary tightening raises prices."

2024 REM - Research in Economics and Mathematics (rem.rc.iseg.ulisboa.pt) Young Researcher Award. Congratulations to the students Gabriel Pereira, Tomás Kapandoglu, Maryam Moshkelgosha, Fernando Reis, and to the supervisors, Isabel Proença, Raquel Bernardino, Maria João Guedes, Luís Costa

⏰ Working Paper Alert "Compliance with Fiscal Sustainability and the Euro" ✏️ @theiiiman.bsky.social & Catarina Farinha Miranda Does adopting the euro contribute to fiscal sustainability in the Eurozone? 📚Find out here: www.cesifo.org/en/publicati...

ISEG PhD in Economics. www.linkedin.com/posts/iseg-p...

20000 citations in Google Scholar! scholar.google.com/citations?us...

RHEINMETALL AG stock price spiking (Deutsche Börse): war economy?!

2025 ISEG Master in Monetary and Financial Economics iseg.ulisboa.pt/study/master... Yes, you can still enroll!

"Does fiscal policy boost economic growth in the LDCs? The role of fiscal ratings and key fiscal variables", forthcoming (lnkd.in/d66ScYAN) A. Afonso, M. Blanco-Arana. Fiscal policy rating positively enhance economic growth in LDCs, and government effectiveness positively influences growth.

Testimonials of students/former students: António Martins, Video: lnkd.in/df92-p_Q Philemon Opoku, Video. lnkd.in/dbcUmCTY Zoë Venter, Video: lnkd.in/d8g_t7hK Joana Sousa Leite, Video: lnkd.in/dvAdS7iZ Eduardo Sá Fortes, Video; lnkd.in/dsByD-_k

REM WP 0371-2025 rem.rc.iseg.ulisboa.pt/wps/. António Afonso, Catarina Miranda. "COMPLIANCE WITH FISCAL SUSTAINABILITY AND THE EURO". We find that euro membership has decreased the average responsiveness of primary balances to debt shocks as compared to the period before the euro.

ISEG PhD in Economics, thesis defense "Essays on tax policies for developing economies", 05.03.2025. Congratulations Lucas Menescal. António Afonso, Joao Madeira, Manuel Mota Freitas Martins, José Alves.

ISEG PhD in Economics, thesis defense "Essays in Monetary and Fiscal Policies", 27.02.2025. Congratulations Francisco Gomes Pereira. António Afonso, Diana Bonfim, Piotr Stanek, José Alves.

inomics.com/conference/1... Keynote speaker: George Hondroyiannis (Bank of Greece; Harokopio University of Athens). 31 May 2025, deadline for submissions (to [email protected])

ABS 4*, ABS 4 authors having lunch at ISEG, during the (not alarming) earthquake in Lisbon: 17.02.2024, 1:20pm. Research never stops! Luis Catao, António Afonso (@theiiiman.bsky.social), Pedro Gomes (@pedromaiagomespt.bsky.social)