Taylor has official become my favourite BOE speech writer. Lovely mix of theory, history and practical policymaking. Made for the job.

I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, yoy travel is useless because of the shift in Easter timing. See how the major effect is in Easter celebrating regions?? While I believe there will be SOME effect on travel, not this much this quickly

“He's trying to create a narrative and set of common reference points that transform issues associated with complex systems into digestible ones with easy solutions. To give him his credit, that's his greatest talent.” Useful framing for the world.

I recently reviewed The Paradox of Debt by Richard Vague for the Society of Professional Economists. Check it out at the links below ⤵️

If the past is a guide to the future (it's not), what's the chance that UK fiscal headroom will be eaten ahead of the Oct Budget *entirely* by rising gilt yields? @ruthcurtice.bsky.social has the chart. www.resolutionfoundation.org/comment/unsu...

guy on train eating twix like a chicken wing

Glad to have palate cleansers like this pass through the incessant information flow

Morning. on.ft.com/3PWkGZ6

Why’s Trump started reading like he can’t see full stops? Feel like they need to sort out the autocue formatting. Bro’s gonna pass out.

UK banks have reported increase demand for mortgages and willingness to supply them in Q4 2024. But demand is expected to decrease in Q1, and that's before the recent increases in mortgage rates

Alan Taylor’s first speech seems to paint him as a strong dove. Given he replaces the hawk-leaning Haskel, it could mark a sizeable shift in the MPC’s direction. But hard to say if it has been hammed up to help bring yields back down. If so, beware.

In my new Substack I use Marge's purchase of a hot pink suit to explore: 👉 What does history tell us about buying GDP growth? 👉 Are purchases of some goods "better for the economy" than others? 👉 Can we develop a framework to help economists understand the growth impacts of spending patterns?

Great read. Have a feeling I'll be revisiting this a few times in 2025.

No mention of neutrality in this paper which suggests "[r]educing military funding would be a grave error" because it provides lower borrowing costs...

Seems like Europe is the unmentioned Goldilocks zone for now.

Shocks, Crises & False Alarms is a rare economics book: practical, clear, and full of insights for businesses navigating uncertainty. Not just about models, it’s about understanding drivers and risks—and the power of storytelling. My full review on Goodreads. www.goodreads.com/review/show/...