The regime carried on with its brutal air campaign while opposition forces continued assaults on their distracted enemy, leading to several strategic gains. New report details patterns of violence in the immediate aftermath of the 28 March earthquake in Myanmar. myanmar.iiss.org/updates/2025...

Multi-faceted test for the TNLA taking shape: -Regime beginning to reverse TNLA gains -Tensions flaring with the KIA and SSPP -TNLA's main partner, the MNDAA, has dropped out of the fight (for now) -Growing public outcry over TNLA policies and behavior Critical days ahead.

Accurate appraisal of the grim situation in Myanmar. More violence will exacerbate these problems, not solve them. www.aspistrategist.org.au/myanmars-des...

The Tatmadaw launched limited counter assaults in Mandalay, Shan, and Kachin with units from the LIDs and MOCs. It appears these divisions have been rebuilt using conscripts. The operations have achieved some success so far, especially against the TNLA at Taung Hkam in Shan State.

There is a line of thinking that mounting opposition gains will eventually force the Myanmar military to negotiate for its own survival. But as I argue here, the regime is just as likely to go down with the ship, taking the state with it. myanmar.iiss.org/updates/2025...

New report asks what's next for Myanmar's ethnic armies now that they control the borderlands. Military victories haven't brought greater stability and there's no clear way to remedy this. More pressure on the centre won't necessarily push the regime to the table. myanmar.iiss.org/updates/2025...

The Arakan Army (AA) is undoubtedly one of the most successful rebel forces fighting the junta in Myanmar. Unsurprisingly, the group has countless admirers amongst the country’s revolutionaries and some outside observers. 1/3 www.thenewhumanitarian.org/news-feature... (@newhumanitarian.bsky.social)

Eight months for the AA to capture the final lone outpost in northern Rakhine State. The snowball theory of Tatmadaw collapse is demonstrably false. Instead we see a reverse snowball effect, with remaining regime bases/assets significantly harder to overcome.

The news that the MNDAA has carrier out 6 executions is deeply troubling. It is proven that the death penalty does not improve justice but its inhuman and cruel. myanmar-now.org/en/news/koka...

Myanmar's conflict may become 'ripe' for dialogue if the regime wins back territory and the EAOs realize they've hit a limit. A lot could happen to prevent this scenario, but the point is that, for the first time since 2021, dialogue is no longer inconceivable. myanmar.iiss.org/updates/2024...

Analyses that paint China only as a villain in Myanmar ignore basic reality. The stunning advances of Operation 1027 were won with Chinese weapons. China has and will still lobby the regime to recognize the authority of the Brotherhood groups over their vastly expanded territories.

Kicking things off on Bluesky with some photos from my recent trip to Karen State in Myanmar. In April, the Karen National Liberation Army overran a major Myanmar military base, seizing control of Thin Gan Nyi Naung town and a stretch of the Asian Highway, a vital trade artery with Thailand.

A very digestable analysis of the complex current situation in Myanmar by IISS's @morganmichaels.bsky.social myanmar.iiss.org/updates/2024...