Friday and Saturday hold hope for a quarter to half-inch of rain over both days, maybe a touch more in spots north and west of Charlottesville. After the rain is when temperatures will crash and become much colder.

We close 2025 with a rainfall deficit of nine inches in Charlottesville and moderate to severe drought conditions across central Virginia. Here's hoping 2026 will be a better year for the area's water table.

Ouch.

Charlottesville's warmest Christmas on record was 2021 when we hit 74°. While still mild our high temperatures tomorrow will be in the lower 60s. It will get much colder on Friday and the prolonged cold will return next Tuesday.

Warm.

Well, at least the amount of daylight per day is increasing again.

If you *have* to use Windows 11, the IoT LTSC version has far less bloatware (CoPilot is a flaming dumpster fire) and offers slightly more stability in my experience. Plus there are... um... workarounds to get it operating.

Our Carter Mountain weather station (FW5988) recorded a 51 mph wind gust at 2:52pm. Whoosh!

Here comes the cold front!

Rain is on the move and will arrive shortly in central Virginia. Amounts will be near a half-inch by sunrise Monday though some places could see more. Important to note: everything falling will be in liquid form and NOT frozen.

Not quite a record this morning, but close.

Sweet sunset in progress next door at Putt-Putt:

Friday could see some snow showers but at this time less than an inch accumulation is expected. Flurries Sunday morning will be followed by temperatures falling through the afternoon. Next Wednesday's precipitation of choice: rain showers.

**Updated central Virginia snowfall totals as of 8pm Monday:

As of 6:15pm Monday: 1) Our running snowfall totals list; 2) Weather alerts still in effect; 3) School delays and closings. Temperatures in the teens tonight will lead to DANGEROUS travel through Tuesday morning. Use extreme caution if you have to travel!

Snow is slowing in Afton but still softly falling. 4 inches. @traviskoshko.bsky.social

Right around 2 inches so far in Afton. @traviskoshko.bsky.social

Models are coming in colder; snowfall totals may need to come up just a bit (as in, another inch or two) from the forecast below. Still considering this an inconvenient snow in terms of travel and a great snow in terms of kids having something to enjoy.

MONDAY: Snow showers start before sunrise & taper around sunset. Setup & accumulation spread will be VERY similar to last Friday. Mountains could see higher amounts than range contours indicate. Biggest takeaway: roads will be slippery & travel tricky. Be safe!

If you like snow like ESPN likes the SEC, then you'll be happy to hear there could be some tomorrow, especially south and west of Charlottesville. Details to come...

We got more snow than expected, but if the neighborhood kids playing outside are any indication more snow isn't necessarily a bad thing. Here's our list as of 3:30pm Friday. Feel free to add your totals below.

Public school delays & cancellations for Friday, December 5, as of 9:23pm Thursday:

Our forecast remains unchanged from yesterday: up to 2" of light, fluffy snow expected for most in central VA. Time frame: midnight to 11am Friday. Not a lot, but a moderate impact storm because it will affect travel Friday morning. Temperatures will stay near freezing through the afternoon.

part 2

*thumbs up*

*looks at watch* RIght on schedule, here comes the clearing. Won't be until later tonight when skies completely clear. Wednesday should feature a full day of sunshine.

Our next low-pressure system is approaching & temperatures are now below freezing (Wintergreen is in the middle 20s). Model output indicates more than a tenth of an inch of ice for some but a degree or two can make all the difference; freezing rain is a finicky beast! Keep those phones charged...

Most likely time for freezing rain/sleet on Tuesday will be 2-7am; temperatures will rise after sunrise to change everything to rain. Worst of the ice accumulation & slick spots will be in the mountains and Valley. Once into rain over a half-inch could fall before mid-afternoon.

Brrrrrrrr.

I'm keeping an eye on Tuesday morning as our next low-pressure system could bring some sleet/freezing rain before sunrise (read: slick roads for the AM commute). Temperatures will warm to change everything to rain by mid-morning. Friday night into Saturday morning will also be worth watching...

Non-traditional Thanksgiving dinner, for the win. Why not crock-pot chili instead?

"Well, we got there and there was a big sign & a chain across the dump saying 'Closed on Thanksgiving' and we had never heard of a dump closed on Thanksgiving before, so with tears in our eyes we drove off into the sunset looking for another place to put the garbage." Happy Thanksgiving, everyone.

There's a lot to unpack in this forecast. Highlights: 1) Mild Wednesday, OK for travel; 2) Colder for Thanksgiving & the holiday weekend; 3) Some could reach the teens Friday night/Saturday morning; 4) Cold for the Commonwealth Clash; 5) Sunday & Tuesday afternoon could see showers.

And here I thought this was gonna be a dull Monday.

Really cool fog bow as seen from Shamrock Road this morning. And it’s a double!

Check out these SWEET Kelvin-Helmhotlz clouds pictures from Charlottesville earlier today. Wow!

Accident: NB US-29 @ Airport Road. Looks like several cars involved and at least one lane blocked.

Hurricane Melissa produced the fastest hurricane winds to be recorded by a dropsonde, verified by reviewing data at NSF NCAR! Hurricane Melissa’s 252 mph wind gust surpassed the previous record from Typhoon Megi over the Western Pacific in 2010, where a dropsonde measured wind gusts of 248 mph.

It aint' much, but it's Charlottesville's first measurable rain in nine days. Showers will be gone by sunrise Wednesday and more rain could be coming late Friday into Saturday.

Based off the auroral report map submissions from last week, here is every single state in the U.S. with aurora. 11/11/25

Peak wind gusts so far today as of 5:15pm: *Fan Mountain: 46mph *Wintergreen: 42mph *CBS19 Studio: 40mph *Carter Mountain: 39mph *Madison: 36mph

VERY windy conditions, low fuel moisture, and very dry air today will lead to critical fire danger across all of central Virginia through this afternoon. A *red flag warning* is in effect until 6pm Sunday; outdoor burning is HIGHLY discouraged.

Wednesday night was another winner for the Northern Lights. Was able to catch three substorms which contained colors and pillars visible to the naked eye. It's definitely gonna be a jumbo coffee kinda day. (Shenandoah Nat'l Park near Elkton, Virginia) #aurora #northernlights

The solar wind is still cooking! Bz is tanking to -20 nT now and wind speeds are extremely elevated > 800 km/s. The central U.S. could see more aurora tonight during substorm activity. Keep an eye on things, and I’ll update as the night goes on.

In short: Bz has to be negative for central Virginia to have any decent view of the aurora. It's still positive at this time and could eventually flip negative but know now that the odds of seeing another great Northern Lights show tonight isn't as great as last night.

It was another great Aurora Borealis show tonight on Skyline Drive! Thankfully the skies cleared just in the nick of time. #aurora

Several reports in Virginia too (I got them earlier in Charlottesville with a long-expsure camera). Unfortunately we've been skunked by clouds at the moment...