Super excited to announce a project I've been working on for a little while now: a ladder predictor that's actually fun to use Only NRL 2026 is available for now, but planning on adding more leagues soon Try it at tcau.dev/league/m/pre...

🗞️NEW ARTICLE: A brief stats nerds' tour of the Broncos' 2025 season Check it out here: thecruncherau.substack.com/p/a-brief-st... Or, read the thread below for some snippets

The lion does, rarely, concern itself with updating R #rstats

Lineups out, here's the model's updated estimate for #AFLCatsDogs

In Excel, clicking a cell sometimes focuses on the wrong cell and I have to completely restart the app 😔 Anyone else have this issue, or just me?

With tonight's result, the 2025 AFL Circle of Parity is officially complete

Proud to announce Stephen Gallagher's #NRL Pronunciation Guide now has its own website! See phonetic pronunciations and listen to recordings of every player's name. Check it out at pg.tcau.dev/nrl

Proud to announce Stephen Gallagher's #NRL Pronunciation Guide now has its own website! See phonetic pronunciations and listen to recordings of every player's name. Check it out at pg.tcau.dev/nrl

Updated #AFL predictions for the round following tonight's lineup release tcau.dev/aussie-rules

Lineups out, here's the updated tip for #AFLFreoPies

In the #NRL, it seems that once a margin is large enough, leading teams consistently outperform (prematch implied) expectation 1/2

I made a website. It's called "one million chessboards." It has a million chessboards on it. moving a piece moves it for everyone, instantly. No turns. You can move between boards. that's it. Have fun! onemillionchessboards.com

The Bulldogs are new leader on the model's #AFL team ratings after Round 7

#NRL model ratings after Round 8

@tcau.dev the record for most of the same losing score in a round is 6 games: 2013 Rd1: losing score = 10 x6 games 1998 Rd11: losing score = 12 x6 games 5x losing score on 3 occasions 4x losing score now on 45 occasions

4/8 teams lost with exactly 18 points this week #NRL

huge fan of the bird's eye view cam, should be at all games #NRLTigersSharks

maybe?

Today is one of those hopeful days where I look up "NRL API" only to find results for Api Koroisau 😞

Correction: foul play only applies to some infringements, which I didn't know until today!

With tonight's result, the 2025 NRL Circle of Parity is officially complete

Referee Sutton just said you can't quick tap after foul play but isn't that what all penalties are? #NRLBroncosBulldogs

Now up to a 16-step cycle in the 2025 AFL: Geelong beat Hawthorn beat Essendon beat Port beat Sydney beat North beat Melbourne beat Fremantle beat Richmond beat Gold Coast beat Adelaide beat GWS Giants beat Collingwood beat Brisbane beat Bulldogs beat St Kilda beat Geelong

No lineup data available yet but yowzahh

The 2025 AFL now has a 14-step cycle: Richmond beat Gold Coast beat Adelaide beat St Kilda beat Port beat Hawthorn beat Giants beat Collingwood beat Brisbane beat Bulldogs beat Carlton beat North beat Melbourne beat Fremantle beat Richmond

curious to see how the model rates the Suns after this

The odd score trend concludes, but we now have 7 consecutive matches with even margins

Today's blog post looks at the flows of preferences to the major parties from minor parties and independents over time. #ausvotes

AFL teams that LOST model rating points in every round of 2025 so far: Brisbane, Bulldogs, Melbourne

🏆 Today’s typ.ing daily challenge: 🌟 Speed: 81wpm 🎯 Accuracy: 94.59% 🥇 Position: 3 out of 12 players today 🔥 Streak: 1 📅 typ.ing/daily

NRL circle of parity update: pretty much just waiting for Bulldogs to lose one

Officially have our first cycle in the 2025 AFL: Port → Hawthorn → GWS Giants → St Kilda → Geelong → Adelaide → Essendon → Port (7 steps)

we still really can't get one week where GWS underperform on xScore

I'd love to begin analysing some Australian polling data, but the data I've found online just isn't comprehensive enough

gotta love new venues

it's not just Carlton fans struggling after the first 5 weeks of the season (seen here: my match network plotter really trying its best)

AFL match network after Round 4 Longest path: 7 steps Longest cycle: none exists

Only 7 below-average teams in the AFL at the moment according to the model

Storm's rating getting slightly scary

📢 NRL Circle of Parity update: If Knights win #NRLBulldogsKnights, all teams would have won and lost a match. However, a Circle of Parity will NOT be possible

Really irks me that AFL and NRL halftime happen within seconds of each other every Thurs and Fri

How common is each letter in Australian electorate names? definitely some surprises there

in hindsight, putting Eels in the centre was probably a little mean

AFL Match network after Round 3

what

I've been really happy with how News has been willing to represent the uncertainty in sampling (which is the heart of opinion polling). This is the first time I am aware of a major Australian media outlet doing this We're in the field now with more polling. Watch this space

first time I've seen ChatGPT here

Circle of parity fans firmly cheering for Dragons here #NRLDragonsStorm

#NRLSouthsPanthers averaged 1.3 errors/min in that 4 minute period before 😬

Model estimates & team ratings ahead of Round 4 of the NRL* tcau.dev/league